whatalife
Moderator
Just a few more tweaks and we’d be good to go. Unfortunately...I just don’t see that happening. I hope I’m wrong for our sakes.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Just a few more tweaks and we’d be good to go. Unfortunately...I just don’t see that happening. I hope I’m wrong for our sakes.
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CAE should not see snow, outside a light mix at points under heavier rates (and even then meh) with that setup, regardless in my honest opnion. Again, drawing a line from just around Newberry and North (including upstate SC)
ATLwxfan
Member
A lot of negative clairvoyance on this thread tonight. The highs have literally moved hundreds of miles between runs. A little patience may go a long way.
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No offense Shawn but we still have 5 days. Don’t underestimate that trough.
Deep moisture up well into NC tends to warm us up a bit much in my experience, but by all means track it. I'm just speaking on that previous 18z run.
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Stormlover
Member
So, if you are on the Alabama side of the line, your chances automatically go way down? hmm
I circled the area I believe has the best chance at some snow. Not a professional but just my personal opinion based on models and history
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Broken024
Member
Alabama doesn't exist to him
Chattownsnow
Member
Maybe someone can teach me and possibly some others something about this set up... In my experience with a set up like this with overrunning, ice would be more of an issue within the precip shield further west in tennessee, Georgia and Alabama I would think with a 1045 H over the top like that. Is it just not moving in early enough for that? The Carolinas would like it anchored in New England to score with CAD but I don’t understand why we aren’t seeing more ice further south undercutting the overrunning precip. I know models are generally not good with shallow arctic air and surface temps with a H of that caliber but I see no ice at all. What’s the deal here? If anyone takes a stab at this thanks!
This is why I made the comment “let’s leave all the talk about imby in the whamby thread”. Apparently it didn’t do any good. Smh
I think the key here is that there is no real defined area of low pressure certainly no strong low pressure near or around the south east leading to a more dominating flow of the 850s below 32 to overspread the area that could see snow. This means there’s no real warm nose to deal with which is what really brings the big ice storms.. it’s snow or no snow with this one
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Exactly what I was saying before about the back and forth and why it is still too early to give up on this one. We see this lots of times with the models when we have a legit threat.
Nam coming in a lot more juiced up then the gfs.
In my opinion nam looks more like a classic overrunning potential..
Hour 84 0Z nam
Hour 90 18z GFS
Hour 84 0Z nam
Hour 90 18z GFS
Let’s just get a cold push.
Cary_Snow95
Member
0z nam digs the trough much further SW than the GFS @ 84
Broken024
Member
Not sure what looks better but here is 0z nam vs 18z gfs
0z nam
18z gfs
0z nam
18z gfs
Gotta remember that the NAM can sometimes be to amped @ H5
Chattownsnow
Member
Certainly the NS energy digging more west Than the GFS can’t be a bad thing.
Cary_Snow95
Member
The Nam by far. Notice the trough is digging more to the Southwest and interacting (tugging) the energy over Cali. The more that trough digs the better
WxBlue
Meteorologist
It's a bit different with the high over Minnesota rather than New England. The southward flow of cold air into the Carolinas isn't as intense so the Arctic air doesn't have the staying power ahead of the system.