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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Jessy89 said:
The mountains are also delaying the cold air to dip into upstate. That’s hurting us to. I understand with heavy enough rates that could bring cold air down. I like your optimism


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The NAM is also coming in later. What precip the upstate had didn't come in until 21z Thursday which around here is after dark so we would be starting to lose daytime heating. And like you said having heavier rates paired with losing daytime heating would help quite a bit.
 
I’m all in for NE Alabama . This will most likely be the last chance all winter for this area. If this keeps up I’m taking Thursday off
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
No precip in the upstate. Coastal transfer kills it I think
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That dang coastal transfer has been responsible for a few screw jobs in my lifetime here (40 mi east of Atl). Greatest example was Carolina crusher in 2000. We started out great......fizzled and next scene the coastal bomb pops......y’all’s blessing was shear agony for me.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Grit posted this Sim-Radar over on the other board and I could not share it. The weenies deserve to see this View attachment 34875
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Please tell me we’re catching onto something here......I’m 40 miles east of Atl sitting rt on I-20. Got screwed by 5 mi last weekend on accumulations. I know this hasn’t been recently modeled as “our storm” but was hoping the NAM may be starting to sniff out stronger CAD.....wouldn’t be first time.
 
GaSnowhound said:
Please tell me we’re catching onto something here......I’m 40 miles east of Atl sitting rt on I-20. Got screwed by 5 mi last weekend on accumulations. I know this hasn’t been recently modeled as “our storm” but was hoping the NAM may be starting to sniff out stronger CAD.....wouldn’t be first time.
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I would not trust weathernerds pytpe maps at all. Last time I used them was the big December storm last year. weathernerds maps were much snowier for my area than other sites. The day of the event those maps had 13inches of snowfall for me.

I ended with .75 inches of slop then all rain. Weathernerds maps are too generous along the changover zones.

I'm not saying those areas will stay all rain this event. BUT i would not look at weathernerds at all lol stick to the proven Pivotal and Tidbits
 
To add to my last post the ICON also has precip last through the night for most of NC/SC this would help many areas struggling with temps
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
PSA: Look at the rain event for this Tuesday/Wednesday and how it’s shifted north and west in the last 24 hours. You want this thing south of your locale right now. We’ve seen this movie before, just get the popcorn ready. ?
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The nam also totally missed yesterday's rain...as did a lot of the guidance in the days leading up to it. So folks should take its precip fields at this range with a mountain of salt. I think it's safe to say there is a good chance its heavier and further north.
 
Clem282340 said:
Thanks that looks so good for the upstate
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Individuals are worried about the lack of moisture. The moisture will be there. I believe the cutoff will likely be just above I40 and heavier precip will likely be around I85. If you you're having mixing deep into the midlands and snow starting in the northern midland, then this is a beautiful look for us. We also have CAD working on our end as well which can only help. I really like this look on the NAM.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I would not trust weathernerds pytpe maps at all. Last time I used them was the big December storm last year. weathernerds maps were much snowier for my area than other sites. The day of the event those maps had 13inches of snowfall for me.

I ended with .75 inches of slop then all rain. Weathernerds maps are too generous along the changover zones.

I'm not saying those areas will stay all rain this event. BUT i would not look at weathernerds at all lol stick to the proven Pivotal and Tidbits
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Yep, Good point! I was a victim as well. Hadn’t thought about that (guess the inner weenie took over). After last weekend I’ve been attempting to telepathically will this thing into existence anyway and that map got me buying into my own solution lol.....maybe we trend colder but I doubt it. That HP just isn’t ideal for mby.
 
I've had this 12z Monday suite as a benchmark since the beginning of this storm. And its starting great, Lets see how the rest plays out. I'm just hunting for a consistent snow threat on all models.

12Z NAM: suppressed 2014 style (perfect in its long range for NC)
12Z ICON: More amped than NAM. Widespread snow for NC. Probably too warm in Western NC as is its bias.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I've had this 12z Monday suite as a benchmark since the beginning of this storm. And its starting great, Lets see how the rest plays out. I'm just hunting for a consistent snow threat on all models.

12Z NAM: suppressed 2014 style (perfect in its long range for NC)
12Z ICON: More amped than NAM. Widespread snow for NC. Probably too warm in Western NC as is its bias.
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Yep, I’ve been thinking NAM would be the tell tale once we got into its range. If I were in play for this event I’d def be hoping for it to lead the way. Seems like the euro/gfs have really struggled w this scenario. Maybe they’re about to converge though.
 
So last night CMC had the coastal, the euro had it early on and some ens members keep hinting at it and now the ICON has it. I'm slightly more intrigued, would love to see the ukie and Euro op head that direction
 
GaSnowhound said:
Yep, I’ve been thinking NAM would be the tell tale once we got into its range. If I were in play for this event I’d def be hoping for it to lead the way. Seems like the euro/gfs have really struggled w this scenario. Maybe they’re about to converge though.
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Yeah globals really have struggled. I think they do poorly in setups where there is no low pressure driving the precip. This setup is perfect to sneak under the global models noses.
 
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