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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Clem282340 said:
Looks like the heaviest snow is from nc/sc boarder to up in the southern Virginia is it not cold enough to get heavier snow to fall down closer to i85
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North Georgia out of it? I can’t tell at the moment


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Clem282340 said:
Looks like the heaviest snow is from nc/sc boarder to up in the southern Virginia is it not cold enough to get heavier snow to fall down closer to i85
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At this point mean maps don’t really matter in terms of how much. Because temps normally trend colder as we get closer to the event. If you notice on the 18z EPS the hp was 2 mb stronger and would help with bringing temps down. Getting the the heavier rates would also help too. So there are still many things to sort out and I still think many are in the game and we won’t truly know who until probably late Tuesday-Wednesday when some of the meso models get into their wheelhouse
 
Nam got the last to right. The Euro has been dethroned by the nam. So the nam will be what I lean on


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Myfrotho704_ said:
My senses that was telling me NC could be at a good spot may be true, I mean temps are cool enough just gotta get the moisture/better look at H5, and that’s what happened on the 18z eps/euro control, SC is close
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When you are saying S.C. is close are you talking about the upstate mainly north of i85 or you saying from Columbia and north
 
Clem282340 said:
When you are saying S.C. is close are you talking about the upstate mainly north of i85 or you saying from Columbia and north
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Even Columbia-north, all it takes is heavy rates and you can crash the column temporarily, but it’s way to early to talk about those types of specifics and that’s somewhat unlikely
 
metwannabe said:
That's a great look right there, right at 5 days too that's a first this winter BUT it's one run and massive changes. Real or mirage?
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May be a mirage, or a signal to our 00z runs, can’t get to excited yet, since it was only the 18z runs, but what makes it a bit more valid is that the EPS has been improving at H5 today in general along with the Gfs
 
While I think my area may not well with this upcoming event. Here is a sample of the 18z Euro control temp vs it’s 12z run. This is a good illustration of how temps can be affected by heavier precipitation rates. Still a ways to go on this event.
fa4e3644256ba042536db176f9817849.gif



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LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah it looks like the ULL over California isn't really allowing that trough in the north to dig further SW. Everything just looks awkward.

EDIT: That being said, I do think this period has potential for the upper south(NC/TN/VA). I'm skeptical this has anything going on for it this far south.
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I posted this a few days back and I still think it'll hold true. I think this will be NC/TN/VA storm. It'll be too warm places in south of there. Maybe I'm wrong though, but I was never too high on this for much of GA at least.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
May be a mirage, or a signal to our 00z runs, can’t get to excited yet, since it was only the 18z runs, but what makes it a bit more valid is that the EPS has been improving at H5 today in general along with the Gfs
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Totally agree, surface hasn't looked great but the pattern has been only minor tweaks away from this..
 
whatalife said:
While I think my area may not well with this upcoming event. Here is a sample of the 18z Euro control temp vs it’s 12z run. This is a good illustration of how temps can be affected by heavier precipitation rates. Still a ways to go on this event.
fa4e3644256ba042536db176f9817849.gif



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Click to expand...
This is what I was saying recently of how the temps are influenced by the precipitation. Get precip in at the right time and the DPs are lower, cloudcover locks it in, and then it's closer to success. I would like to see N GA get in on this again though as well as AL and SC folks.
 
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