Cary_Snow95
Member
Trends this morning certainly favor the cmc
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
GFS definite step in right direction, just don't jump NW too fast now...
FWIW Brad is not liking this threat whatsoever.
Seeing that low pop closer to coast, then it becomes a more typical NW trend type of setup....this getting interesting
GaSnowhound
Member
Yes, that’s also such a waste of good opportunity down this way. We traditionally do well w overrunning if CAD sets up strong east of apps. If this were a classic CAD HP.....I think you’re spot on re models struggling w LP not being formed during event. I wonder what the chances are of this energy popping LP in gulf. It’s happened before......a ltl wave in the stream sliding by and suddenly we have LP forming. May not be the right setup now but I find these scenarios fascinating. Either way it seems it’s gonna pop a coastal off Carolina.
That's a huge change. The last few runs had precip 200+ miles further S/E, IIRC.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Can’t ever recall a coastal working out for us in the I-20 region of GA. We either get rain or get hosed on the transfer.
GaSnowhound
Member
Yeah......the transfer can be a deal killer even when we do have a favorable LP track. Are you on north side of town (Atl)? If so, you’d stand a btr shot at some onset accum (if it’s even possible) than us further east.
I’ve got a feeling this wi
like I said in a earlier post this looks like similar set up of what north Georgia went through a couple of weekends ago that went from a dusting to 3 inches It wouldn’t take much for this to turn into a north of I-20 special here in north Georgia. Moisture will not be a problem because every system we have had here in north Georgia has went over the amount of rain projected. I think this going to get better as we get closer and you can snow showing up now in north Georgia so temps are close and see that high pressure sliding into a good spot. Get the popcorn ready?
I can't un-see the ICON, it has around .8 total qpf for this event imby and considering how warm it tends to be.... again let's see what the ukie and euro have to say.
GaSnowhound
Member
That’s been my concern all along. We need that high pumping over NE to really feed it down east of apps I think. I’m out of town (beech mtn nc) and can’t see much on iPhone. Where’s that high modeling to set up currently??
SnowNiner
Member
In my opinion if the storm was to develop that far east, there is no precipitation as far west as Charlotte. Charlotte's hope is in the overrunning not the storm off the coast, imo. By the time the storm is that far off the coast precip is long gone.
That was a pretty shocking run. I don't think it's had more than trace amounts past the coastline in recent days, so that's a really huge shift at a pretty close range.
Storm5
Member
now that we seem to have a formidable threat for some areas. this thread will be cleaned up so people can find actual information . If your post gets moved or deleted . DONT take it personal .
WARNING- if anyone posts " Why did my post get deleted " they will sit on the sidelines for a week .We've all been down this road before and everyone should know how this works by now
WARNING- if anyone posts " Why did my post get deleted " they will sit on the sidelines for a week .We've all been down this road before and everyone should know how this works by now
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Canadian and ICON look great. GFS is headed in the right direction. I think this one is going to see the Euro be the last one to jump on board. Right now central NC is still ahead in the game.
CMC so far looks even more amped with the energy in the northwestern US rn
Ron Burgundy
Member
About 2 miles south of 285/400 interchange. I’d be shocked if we see a flake. But we got in on the last system so anything else is a bonus this year IMHO.
NS energy on cmc not digging as much, probably won’t be impressive as the last run but will still be solid
cmc shifts back eastward with the precip, not as far west as 00z.
Yep flow was back to flatter, still a decent hit but wrong direction
And just like that, we have some convergence. Met Mauler
I ain't mad...
GaSnowhound
Member
I still wouldn’t be surprised that SER nudges it back in a bit. Coast looks good but piedmont may well cash in too before it’s over to some degree imho.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Gefs keeping heavier storms south
Little shift NW with QPF on gefs
06z
12z
06z
12z
baroowoofr
Member
12z UKMET trying to come north, still rather suppressed, but less so than 12z yesterday:
ATLwxfan
Member
12z NAM a tick south. This bears watching for North AL and GA north of I-20. I little further south and a little more juice and it’s a potential board wide threat. Getting into the NAM wheelhouse.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
iGRXY
Member
Right now this is where I see things setting up currently. I think ENC and NE SC look to be in the sweet spot for the highest accumulations and probability for snow. I think Northern Alabama, NE Georgia, the Upstate up to the I40 corridor look close for a decent winter storm. CAD areas look the best for those areas for snow as well. The midlands towards the coast will be interesting as well because if we get some extra cold air and CAD to extend into the northern midlands, then this could get very interesting for them as well. I think the moisture will cut off around I40 and the colder air will be cut off down towards I20.
Attachments
Forevertothee
Member
WYFF noon forecaster has 47 and rain for Upstate on Th. 40% chance of precip.
They clearly are leaning on Globals vs NAM.
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They clearly are leaning on Globals vs NAM.
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I don’t normally agree with Brad P. but I do for this one. This isn’t it for his viewing area of the Charlotte metro. Or even Boone NC for that matter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This based on what exactly? Gut feelings? Wooly caterpillars? The magic conch?
ATLwxfan
Member
That didn’t work out on last weeks “surprise snow”. Just wait till some of the other mesoscale models come into range.
For the record, the Euro last week may have read this through the tea leaves. We shall see.
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That’s going to be pretty close to reality. I think there’s an outside chance we’re mostly dry though. That cold air behind the front is going to be pleasant ?
iGRXY
Member
They screwed that up up very badly. they were calling for a rain snow mix at most in the upstate.
Jessy89
Member
He’s been a metrologist for a long time. Based on his experience i would say
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CMC ensembles, precip was more north this run, it been consistent as heck 
Here’s another panel, nice amounts of moisture, just meh SFC temps where 850s are cold enough, but dynamic cooling would probably take care of that like the NAM hints at
He ALWAYS leans conservative. Especially after he busted pretty bad here a couple of Decembers ago. I love Brad, but he won't budge until more modeling shows some general consensus. This look is too good to completely give up.