And NWS thinking.... y'all enjoy your ice.
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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Another definite uptick in ice totals on 3k NAM at 12Z
packfan98
Moderator
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Another worrisome part to me is how much the HRRR is already showing for that immediate escapement. HRRR is a model that is horrible with 2m temps, usually a couple degrees too warm.
For you guys that are better with the micro-climate out there, how does Hickory usually fair in these setups? I'm asking because I've got some work related travel tomorrow morning to Hickory, thanks
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hickory proper does pretty well as it sits on the NW end of Catawba county. I’d say a line from upper Cleveland county towards hickory and up toward wilkesboro and NW or there will do pretty well. It’s treading a fine line of getting the precip in time before the wedge erodes which is why I think winston and Greensboro may not do as well as normal being that far north.
Dewpoints just don’t seem to be very low right now and that could certainly affect wet-bulbing late tonight and tomorrow morning. I just looked and dew points are in the 20s throughout NC and VA with 10s up in PA. I would think that those 10s would need to be down into VA to really see good evaporational cooling.
Advisory’s are out for western NC
Agree 100% DPs not low enough for good WB. Also RNK was going with lows in the upper 20s tonight now they say lower 30s, BIG deal when talking ZR and potential problems. If it’s low 30s it’s just barely going to be a nuisance IMO!
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Likewise, as I know it won't be icy here either, but the temp dipped to 32 at one point in the early morning hours (the low was only supposed to be 40 if I remember correctly).
Ethan80963!
Member
High today is 49 up to 39 already. Humidity is dropping NE winds are picking up now at 9 mph and dew point has dropped from 28 an hour ago to 23 now. It should be interesting next several hours seeing how high temps get before clouds move in and how low dew points can get.
Too localized to issue a Winter Storm Warning but southern Wilkes looks somewhat promising to see 0.25” above 2,500ft. Some mountain areas may do poorly if sleet eats away at ZR totals (Watauga/Ashe). I see the AFD mentions 0.1 to 0.2 sleet.
1 mPING report of rain hitting the ground so column is moistening in Georgia already. Quicker it gets here the better chance a 1 or 2 hour window exists for sleet north of i40 or northern mtns. 
Maybe a small backside chance of a mix too on the NAM. Mtns should easily get snow showery. Interesting thump of moisture develops over the foothills late Saturday going into the Piedmont. Not there yet but wouldn’t rule out a sneaky surprise of something other than rain.
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SimeonNC
Member
Jeremy Camp
Member
Yeah I went and looked and sure enough dewpoints are running about 5 degrees lower than forecast right now.
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HRRR has been getting more chilly in CAD areas, moisture is close, but you can also see latent heat release from raindrops to our south and how better precip rates actually warm it up a bit in GA
HRRR may just show plain rain, but WBZs are definitely supportive of initial ZR, for example this sounding north of CLT, 33 degrees but that WBZ is supportive of a temp around 30 degrees, and note that moist layer from 700mb to 900mb, this is supportive of drizzle already, and dew points are already running to high, that could make a decently big difference, for example instead of 33/26 which WBZ equals 30.7, if you get the dew point a bit lower, like 33/23, your WBZ is now 29.7, its little things like this that makes a big difference
HRRR may just show plain rain, but WBZs are definitely supportive of initial ZR, for example this sounding north of CLT, 33 degrees but that WBZ is supportive of a temp around 30 degrees, and note that moist layer from 700mb to 900mb, this is supportive of drizzle already, and dew points are already running to high, that could make a decently big difference, for example instead of 33/26 which WBZ equals 30.7, if you get the dew point a bit lower, like 33/23, your WBZ is now 29.7, its little things like this that makes a big difference
also if you was to WBZ to the max, that sounding would give you initial sleet