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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

The Nam is running let’s see if it stays aggressive or caves.


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When’s the 0z NAM roll out?
 
NWS shows my hourly forecast for 5 AM Friday to be a temp of 27 and dp of 22 - about the time precip may be starting. If that’s correct, I’d say we could lock in below freezing for quite some time. They are forecasting a steady NE wind, yet the temp rises above freezing within a few hours. It just seems too fast to me unless the precip fails to materialize that early, but as webber was alluding to earlier, there’s reason to think some light isentropic upglide precip could get going pretty early. The local news here barely mentioned this at 6. It will be interesting to see where we’re sitting this time tomorrow.
 
The NAM is looking better. Faster separation. quicker phase, faster precip can get into the area before high erodes.
00z
1576141200-aCJ46qEe32I.png

18z
1576141200-rH0oGP5LSaY.png
 
The high slides out. Not sure what Nam thinks is holding in the cold air.


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4 days away hopefully it trends faster. 6am onset is terrible when the immediate stuff is probably evaporating with the low dew points. Freezing rain event starting during the day prob won’t work for most in the Carolinas.
 
SimeonNC said:
Precip never makes it that far east this run, strange.
Click to expand...

I have not looked. BUT.. with insitu/cad profiles the dew points could be evaporating it. Most models try to account for that and show what has actually fallen.

ALSO.

Everyone be careful with those simulated radar/composite radars from the high resolution models. It does not mean it will reach the ground.
 
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