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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

Jessy89 said:
Nam obviously has a cold bias. No way it’s that cold with that much ice. That would cause some problems
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Bias is not as bad once the NAM is 24 hours out. I agree with Webber on predicting location+risk over amounts at this range. EURO usually does really well but I’m not sure if it’s done trending it may get a touch more icier.
 
Jessy89 said:
Nam obviously has a cold bias. No way it’s that cold with that much ice. That would cause some problems


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Could be true ... but CMC has already been showing this for probably the most concrete scenario we’ve seen from any model.. euro and Gfs have slowly over the runs shown colder with more moisture coming over that cold air earlier ... DONT count out a sneak ice storm in the makings
 
Gfs has this about right I believe. Brief period of ice for NC quickly changing to rain. This is more of a brief nuisance for whoever sees it rather then a full blown winter storm.


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GFS says nope
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We’ve seen the globales not see these CAD signatures before .. it’s classic global model error .. we must focus on high res short range modeling and now casting when it comes time
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
We’ve seen the globales not see these CAD signatures before .. it’s classic global model error .. we must focus on high res short range modeling and now casting when it comes time
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We're on the fringe of NAM range, as of right now I'd put more weight with globals
 
Sleet City USA said:
We're on the fringe of NAM range, as of right now I'd put more weight with globals
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Which is why GSP was so conservative in their discussion. I think if by this time tomorrow we see the NAM showing something similar to what the CMC is showing, you’ll start to see them get more aggressive in their wording. Of course one of the keys to the icier solutions is having a decent snowpack put down on a Wednesday and Wednesday night in Virginia. If that doesn’t happen I just don’t see the cold air holding in long enough
 
Chazwin said:
Which is why GSP was so conservative in their discussion. I think if by this time tomorrow we see the NAM showing something similar to what the CMC is showing, you’ll start to see them get more aggressive in their wording. Of course one of the keys to the icier solutions is having a decent snowpack put down on a Wednesday and Wednesday night in Virginia. If that doesn’t happen I just don’t see the cold air holding in long enough
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Against my better judgement of posting hour 84 NAM, it’s heading towards the CMC solution.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
In addition, that meso high denoted with the 1036 H near Roanoke is what will really be the tell tell if this is a nuisance or a moderate event.
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No doubt and globals struggle with meso features such as that. Get the feeling y'all might have some fun with this one

edit: I know you are along the blue ridge escarpment (not sure what exactly gave that away lol) but where is your location along it?
 
metwannabe said:
No doubt and globals struggle with meso features such as that. Get the feeling y'all might have some fun with this one

edit: I know you are along the blue ridge escarpment (not sure what exactly gave that away lol) but where is your location along it?
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Lol! I’m in located in NE section of McDowell county. Above the northern banks of Lake James.
 
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