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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

The Nam is running let’s see if it stays aggressive or caves.


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When’s the 0z NAM roll out?
 
NWS shows my hourly forecast for 5 AM Friday to be a temp of 27 and dp of 22 - about the time precip may be starting. If that’s correct, I’d say we could lock in below freezing for quite some time. They are forecasting a steady NE wind, yet the temp rises above freezing within a few hours. It just seems too fast to me unless the precip fails to materialize that early, but as webber was alluding to earlier, there’s reason to think some light isentropic upglide precip could get going pretty early. The local news here barely mentioned this at 6. It will be interesting to see where we’re sitting this time tomorrow.
 
The NAM is looking better. Faster separation. quicker phase, faster precip can get into the area before high erodes.
00z
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18z
1576141200-rH0oGP5LSaY.png
 
The high slides out. Not sure what Nam thinks is holding in the cold air.


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4 days away hopefully it trends faster. 6am onset is terrible when the immediate stuff is probably evaporating with the low dew points. Freezing rain event starting during the day prob won’t work for most in the Carolinas.
 
SimeonNC said:
Precip never makes it that far east this run, strange.
Click to expand...

I have not looked. BUT.. with insitu/cad profiles the dew points could be evaporating it. Most models try to account for that and show what has actually fallen.

ALSO.

Everyone be careful with those simulated radar/composite radars from the high resolution models. It does not mean it will reach the ground.
 
Where y’all get them pretty NAM maps? I got theseEDFA7114-0A26-48EB-9A78-822F641FA948.png1885C3D6-363B-4E1A-A4C9-0D0D0E3E6E6F.png
 
GFS getting the party going! High booking it, but still gonna get icy, I thinkAF1190B2-FE4A-48C9-BEB3-CBD150BC64F1.png
 
?C5863757-78D6-4928-8709-704795D32440.png
 
CMC looks pretty much the same temps are mostly the same and looks like most of the same areas get ZR. However precip is lighter due to a weaker wave
8689D335-1B0F-424D-9890-E2F127A45056.jpeg
C54F9C2D-3D82-469B-B4DA-8724D051B45F.jpeg
 
I guess we just need something upstream to slow that high down so it can try to ridge down to some degree. If we have to rely on in-situ conditions alone, at least we’re talking about wet bulbs in the 25-27 range hopefully (if you’re looking for ice). It looks to be relatively saturated in the low levels - primed for whatever may try to fall. I do think cad areas to my southwest (i.e. gsp, west of clt, etc) may wind up with the best diurnal timing.
 
That cmc does look ominous, but I just can’t see how it’s coming up with such high QPF from such a weak system. Do you have the freezing rain accum. map by chance?
 
GFS got the NE high pressure sliding out quicker now. Say what you want about GFS, but CMC/NAM isn't exactly the best combo of models to rely on... we'll need to see what Euro has and give it another round of runs in the morning.
 
I mean, it’s pretty easy to see where this is headed. Even on the wedge happy/cold biased CMC..
The reality of it is, It’s a weak 31/32 degree onset ZR event for favored areas in NC
BBAEE619-C109-407A-A786-DB12F4CC6E7E.gif
 
NAM shows a ice storm basically, I feel like that footprint of ice is correct, just a little bit less ice, but it’s close for CLT, WBZ at the start around 31-33, probably gonna see some delays Friday morning B1DA57C0-8DFE-4470-B443-84E4AF898436.jpeg651299E4-ECEE-4672-8A80-C247BDB42ADE.jpegBB5B9E2E-D1A9-41A6-8B59-359F479FB5CC.png
 
Fwiw I thought the long range RGEM was interesting 1042 hp over Virginia with light precip moving into southern/central GA
 
LOL! We lost the CMC! Now it’s all the models vs NAM!? Wonder how that ends?
 
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