Lol you use the worst apps for your weather forecast. Try compuserve.weather!
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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
It’s just too warm to really say more than a 5% chance of a major (widespread 0.25”). Maybe an isolated spot along the escarpment.
looking at the GEFS looks to have gone up on the chances of this event
SimeonNC
Member
SimeonNC
Member
Considering that CAD has a track record of being stronger than modeled, along with the short range models increasing their ice totals. The idea of warning level ice for some areas in the foothills isn't too out there.
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My map isn’t loading but based off my city charts for example my 12z GEFS had 4 members now theirs 9 members
12z
18z
If I need to post other cities I can
If RGEM looks like this tomorrow y'all need to be on alert.... its not a horrible model with thermals
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packfan98
Moderator
I don’t trust the RGEM anymore. The first couple of years it shined and seemed to be a good model to determine precip type. The past two winters it has been really bad and often shown temps that were too cold and historic ice storms for CAD areas that never came to fruition. I actually prefer the NAM models, especially the 3k. Blend them with the Euro and it’s should be close to reality.If RGEM looks like this tomorrow y'all need to be on alert.... its not a horrible model with thermals
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I agree especially at its "long range", within 24 hrs it can still be close. CAD can be as fickle as ull at times, they're fun
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BHS1975
Member
If RGEM looks like this tomorrow y'all need to be on alert.... its not a horrible model with thermals
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Durham county does tend to be in the transition zone for retreating CAD.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
00Z 3k NAM has spoken. Loudly.
NAM says thunder ZR/RN is a possibility, some elevated convection is possible, especially if it’s right with that MUcape, this means heavy ZR, also note nice lift (omega) from the WAA, but anyways quicker latent heat release would be likely with heavier rates, gotta remember that models count anything below freezing as Ice accumulation, you gotta account marginal temps, heavy rates, still 3km NAM shows significant pockets of ice, it’s a very close call for Charlotte, RGEM is starting to get some support 
atm, I’d lean with a glaze (trace-.1) of ice north if CLT/85, and as you get towards the foothills, 0.1 to 0.25 with a few pockets to 0.4/0.5 of ZR in those notorious CAD areas is possible, altho that’s the high side, out of these totals I’d look at the lowest side of them rn
I don’t make nice maps like @Webberweather53 or @WxBlue
but I’ll try my hardest lol, but this is what I’ll go with right now, again, look at the lowest totals possible with this right now and not the higher end (t-.1)
but I’ll try my hardest lol, but this is what I’ll go with right now, again, look at the lowest totals possible with this right now and not the higher end (t-.1)
Nam 12km is doing same thing, it’s interesting tho because the both of them have been to low on QPF, for example that anafront
00z RGEM I think has about 10 hours of ZR in my area. Mess or No it's about temps, 28-29 vs 31-32 BIG difference when you talking ZR.
