Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks like this run of the NAM is going to have more precip
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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
That much ice is unlikely in the upstate, but here’s the NAM 
3km definitely supports a glaze of ice in around CLT, WBZ at 30, it’s also picking up on the spotty activity ahead of the heavier stuff aswell 
Would this time period be considered to be in the NAM’s wheelhouse if not what hour would you start watching it?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Pretty concerning that the hi-res NAM 3k is really upping totals. This is the model I typically lean on when needing to pick up small details.
Last edited:
Thursday. But right now the euro looks spot on realistic given expected conditions.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I really got spoiled being on pacific time for the past few days, euro coming out 9:45 local time. About to take a bumpy flight from Atlanta to Asheville.
WPC looks to keep expanding
Official Brad P. Forecast is nearly a carbon copy of the EURO. I would agree as euro is in its wheel/house. NAM is still too far out to trust IMO. 
Our local FOX 8 Van Denton says ------ It's a no go! IF moisture gets in before 9am MIGHT be some spotty ZR, but moisture looks to come in after 9am.
According to his Facebook yesterday, he said he was going with sleet. NWS also believes sleet/snow could occur early if precip is there. If there is a lull you could skip ZR altogether after some early sleet/snow mix then just goes to plain rain. Too far out to know the timing tho.
Lol. How specific. I agree it’s not ZR if it gets in early enough. 
GFS pretty much holding serve. It does have some micro 32 pockets over Greensboro and south of Wilkesboro at lunch time Friday so lots of time for sleet/ZR if it reaches the ground. It really won’t take much if a heavy band sets up to deposit a coating of sleet maybe even a flake mixed esp before 5am. I would say after 8am the sleet chances goes to all ZR until 1pm.
If the CMC is right, some areas don’t go above freezing until late Friday. Given the GFS is 32 in areas at lunch time, I would say either Mount Airy or Wilkesboro sits at or below freezing until or past sunset Friday. That’s how stubborn CAD is and gfs never captures it. Of course, 32 doesn’t support a lot of ice.
on paper it makes sense for temps to wet bulb and cool from 6am to 1pm Friday esp Greensboro south/west to hickory. I guess it’s possible but a lot relies on moisture placement and actually hitting the ground
I have a feeling as NAM gets closer it will show at or below freezing through 5pm Friday for a few folks along the escarpment.mostly being sleet to a light glaze that never melts till Friday night. Typical NC ice during the day but warming over night to melt into Saturday.
NAM has less ice than last run
packfan98
Moderator
Looked like the 3k nam increased totals over the 0z run to me. Regular nam did decrease. I believe the 3k should pick up better with scattered drizzle which could be problematic.
It’s all going to boil down to what time the moisture moves in. If it moves in quite early could be a mess in many locations, if it waits till later no big deal.
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