I am utterly shocked! Didn’t see this coming!
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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
Ethan80963!
Member
They all cut totals but still have freezing rain in the northern upstate in the frames after this. I'm also watching temps it seems that the NAM is initializing too warm.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Well for one, you’re skipping 9 hours. 9 hours in which the model is showing freezing rain.
Ethan80963!
Member
I don't know if it will affect this event but my dew points were supposed to bottom out at 22 later today and maintain this through Friday morning but as I write this my dew point is 12 and looks to still be dropping. This could end up having an interesting effect on this event if it were to stay this way through Friday morning.
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Doubt it matters it’s mostly not having widespread precip earlier. It’s spotty, drizzle and maybe not even reaching the ground.
Ethan80963!
Member
Welp...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Not surprising the 12k NAM has upped ice totals. Actually has GSP at warning level accumulation. I expect the 3k will be even better.
SimeonNC
Member
I have a feeling that if the CAD is stronger than modeled, a lot of folks will be surprised by this ice event.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yikes, 3k NAM has 0.75-1.00 inch of ice near the Saluda grade. Another maximum from bat cave NE up to Marion of 0.4-0.7.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
That's what I was trying to warn everyone about on Monday. If the CAD is strong enough, those southern slopes in Henderson County get the best of both worlds (orographic uplift and cold air)
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/potential-dec-13-14-ice-threat.659/page-3#post-217225
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep. From there NE toward Marion and up to Jonas Ridge is ground zero for CAD.
RGEM is an ice storm for many even into the afternoon hours. But usually doesn’t do well imo compared to euro. NAM will be something to watch tomorrow I think sometimes it’s usually a little too wet at this range.
CMC is now noticing how hard it is to erode the cad. At or below freezing all day Friday from Wilkes County back to west of Hickory. Very localized pockets even in the piedmont counties too.
As of now no change from me. Sleet mix northern mtns/hills then ZR. Ice will be severely limited in accumulation because of marginal temps but due to cold longer what does form could stay on the trees into Saturday particularly in the trees. Further south(Hickory,Statesville, Lenoir) I don’t see as much sleet mix mostly ZR to cold rain with similar ice of a trace to 0.1”.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS starting to play catch-up and recognize CAD now. Definitely a colder run especially in NC CAD areas.
I guarantee it will get 0 mention from local Mets down here, because it’s the NAM, and outlier. People will ignore the event, because Mets are saying no impact here and minimal impact into our NC viewing area
Someone post WPC maps. Thx
TWC , ot even a mention!?
SimeonNC
Member
Imagine if this turns out to be a major ice event for many in the Western NC area with little to no warning.
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Because it's a non event. Just like all the other fantasy storms showing up! Congrats DC! I mean since they're in such a snow hole always and never get any snow.