Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

[Tagat]

I know I don't have a dog in this fight but it has been a cold drizzly day down here.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Probably the most realistic map I've seen all-day

 

[SimeonNC]

Surface wet bulb map as of 1z. The northern & far western piedmont of NC certainly seems primed for a light glaze w/ wet bulbs in the upper 20s-near 30F, probably going to be too warm near the NC-SC border & points south.


View attachment 27905

Ofc the 32 degree line is over the Northern Mecklenburg area.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Up to 40 degrees now lol, failwedge

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s the same system, not ice, but instead severe weather, long range hrrr went boom with it, shows a meso low, with supercells along the cold front, meso low is likely enhancing low level shear, only limiting thing is low level instability, cold air aloft to would support hail

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Let the ice begin! Temp is running about 3 degrees below guidance thus GSP upping totals. Better late than never GSP!

 

[smast16]

Still 30/18 with a slight NE breeze and thin veil of high level clouds.

Now down to 28 /18. Wind has gone calm. I think I'm primed for a little sparkle in the trees.

 

[Webberweather53]

My final call for this event in NC. Temps look like they're gonna be too warm in Charlotte for any significant ZR accrual, same can not be said for the northwestern piedmont. With light winds and ice accumulations near or up to 0.25", may see some widely scattered power outages in the far NW piedmont.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

31.4/23 WB= 28.5

 

[Webberweather53]

31.4/23 WB= 28.5

Yikes, you're already below freezing before any precip has moved in.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

My final call map aswell, which was the same map I posted yesterday, still looks good, maybe more ice into those areas near SW NC since cold air can get trapped in those areas, same for areas more west of this axis of ice into the mountains

 

[Scooter]

Just outside of High Point in northern Davidson County

 

[Myfrotho704_]

38/21 here = 32 WB

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

40/25= wet bulb of 35. Fail! Next!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here comes the moisture

 

[MichaelJ]

Uh oh, now 31/23 here and clear skies with 6% cloud cover

 

[drfranklin]

39.1/28

 

[BirdManDoomW]

28 over 22. I see those to my west have dew points in the teens up in the mtns.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Jefferson is 27 over 19.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Reports of some sleet mixing in around Clemson. It’s heading your way soon, Mack and Jimmy.

 

[Webberweather53]

NWS ice accumulation forecast alongside the Sperry-plitz ice accumulation (SPIA) index shows some areas around Wilkes County potentially receiving 0.25-0.33" of ice accumulation. Thankfully, the winds are pretty light or else this would be a much bigger deal.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Yikes, you're already below freezing before any precip has moved in.

Still dropping, 30.3/23 WB= 27.8

 

[Nomanslandva]

Higher elevations around me are still colder so I guess the wedge is pretty deep. That being said, models seem to be warming slightly. I still don't see the wedge braking so fast here...it never does.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Hoping sleet/flakes that NWS is calling for slashes the ZR totals down. But then I feel like that might just trap the cold air even longer than the 3pm Friday cutoff time for the advisory.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Silver lining. It’s not even a cold rain. 40 degrees. Just ran across the farm to dump the trash with basketball shorts on

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Likely IP in there with those blue/green colors

 

[drfranklin]

38.3/29

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

0Z RGEM is very enthused

 

[Ollie Williams]

A couple snow reports around the NC SC border

 

[Myfrotho704_]

A couple snow reports around the NC SC borderView attachment 27922

Yep another one, early arrival of precip is likely helping

 

[smast16]

Now down to 28 /18. Wind has gone calm. I think I'm primed for a little sparkle in the trees.

Waa waa. Up to 33 / 20.

 

[Webberweather53]

Waa waa. Up to 33 / 20.

The rise in temps you're observing is likely attributable to cloud cover and not WAA. Many locations warmed up 3-4F once the clouds came in and reduced radiational cooling. At night clouds retain longwave, outgoing IR >>> temp rises.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

The rise in temps you're observing is likely attributable to cloud cover and not WAA. Many locations warmed up 3-4F once the clouds came in and reduced radiational cooling. At night clouds retain longwave, outgoing IR >>> temp rises.

Yup, my temp is beginning to rise also! 30.9/24 atm

 

[Lowtown]

Would sleet help to strengthen the wedge?

 

[Rainforrest]

32 light rain

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can tell where IP is falling, maybe even some wet snow, but mostly IP/RN

 

[drfranklin]

36.5/light rain (not expecting anything here, just reporting for those to the north/northeast)

 

[Lowtown]

The latest surface pressures out of NC can’t be right, right?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Graupel falling

 

[Myfrotho704_]

and it’s done, but it came down nicely for a minute, I count that as a win