Where y’all get them pretty NAM maps? I got these
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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
Cod Meterology Is a great free site. Plus it has GEFS stamps. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
GFS getting the party going! High booking it, but still gonna get icy, I think
?
GFS fail! All rain
NAM/ CMC vs GFS
NAM/ CMC vs GFS
CMC looks pretty much the same temps are mostly the same and looks like most of the same areas get ZR. However precip is lighter due to a weaker wave
Lowtown
Member
I guess we just need something upstream to slow that high down so it can try to ridge down to some degree. If we have to rely on in-situ conditions alone, at least we’re talking about wet bulbs in the 25-27 range hopefully (if you’re looking for ice). It looks to be relatively saturated in the low levels - primed for whatever may try to fall. I do think cad areas to my southwest (i.e. gsp, west of clt, etc) may wind up with the best diurnal timing.
Lowtown
Member
That cmc does look ominous, but I just can’t see how it’s coming up with such high QPF from such a weak system. Do you have the freezing rain accum. map by chance?
WxBlue
Meteorologist
GFS got the NE high pressure sliding out quicker now. Say what you want about GFS, but CMC/NAM isn't exactly the best combo of models to rely on... we'll need to see what Euro has and give it another round of runs in the morning.
I mean, it’s pretty easy to see where this is headed. Even on the wedge happy/cold biased CMC..
The reality of it is, It’s a weak 31/32 degree onset ZR event for favored areas in NC
The reality of it is, It’s a weak 31/32 degree onset ZR event for favored areas in NC
I mean the CMC has Albany NY 24 degrees warmer than it was 5 runs ago..
WxBlue
Meteorologist
00z ECMWF = nearly all cold rain.
Lighter precip is usually bad in ZR situations. Less latent heat due to lighter rates = more ice accretion
SimeonNC
Member
The south trend with the high continues, 1040 HP is NoVa at hour 60.
NAM shows a ice storm basically, I feel like that footprint of ice is correct, just a little bit less ice, but it’s close for CLT, WBZ at the start around 31-33, probably gonna see some delays Friday morning 
Basically 85 north If you look at that total ZR amount map, lolol
Most gefs ensembles don’t even show Ice nomore
Fwiw I thought the long range RGEM was interesting 1042 hp over Virginia with light precip moving into southern/central GA
06z euro look about 3 hours earlier with precip
LOL! We lost the CMC! Now it’s all the models vs NAM!? Wonder how that ends?