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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat

Where y’all get them pretty NAM maps? I got theseEDFA7114-0A26-48EB-9A78-822F641FA948.png1885C3D6-363B-4E1A-A4C9-0D0D0E3E6E6F.png
 
GFS getting the party going! High booking it, but still gonna get icy, I thinkAF1190B2-FE4A-48C9-BEB3-CBD150BC64F1.png
 
CMC looks pretty much the same temps are mostly the same and looks like most of the same areas get ZR. However precip is lighter due to a weaker wave
8689D335-1B0F-424D-9890-E2F127A45056.jpeg
C54F9C2D-3D82-469B-B4DA-8724D051B45F.jpeg
 
I guess we just need something upstream to slow that high down so it can try to ridge down to some degree. If we have to rely on in-situ conditions alone, at least we’re talking about wet bulbs in the 25-27 range hopefully (if you’re looking for ice). It looks to be relatively saturated in the low levels - primed for whatever may try to fall. I do think cad areas to my southwest (i.e. gsp, west of clt, etc) may wind up with the best diurnal timing.
 
That cmc does look ominous, but I just can’t see how it’s coming up with such high QPF from such a weak system. Do you have the freezing rain accum. map by chance?
 
GFS got the NE high pressure sliding out quicker now. Say what you want about GFS, but CMC/NAM isn't exactly the best combo of models to rely on... we'll need to see what Euro has and give it another round of runs in the morning.
 
I mean, it’s pretty easy to see where this is headed. Even on the wedge happy/cold biased CMC..
The reality of it is, It’s a weak 31/32 degree onset ZR event for favored areas in NC
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NAM shows a ice storm basically, I feel like that footprint of ice is correct, just a little bit less ice, but it’s close for CLT, WBZ at the start around 31-33, probably gonna see some delays Friday morning B1DA57C0-8DFE-4470-B443-84E4AF898436.jpeg651299E4-ECEE-4672-8A80-C247BDB42ADE.jpegBB5B9E2E-D1A9-41A6-8B59-359F479FB5CC.png
 
Basically 85 north If you look at that total ZR amount map, lolol
 
Fwiw I thought the long range RGEM was interesting 1042 hp over Virginia with light precip moving into southern/central GA
 
06z euro look about 3 hours earlier with precip
 
LOL! We lost the CMC! Now it’s all the models vs NAM!? Wonder how that ends?
 
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