Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
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Looks like this run of the NAM is going to have more precip
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Wintry Potential Dec 13-14 Ice Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
That much ice is unlikely in the upstate, but here’s the NAM 
3km definitely supports a glaze of ice in around CLT, WBZ at 30, it’s also picking up on the spotty activity ahead of the heavier stuff aswell 
Would this time period be considered to be in the NAM’s wheelhouse if not what hour would you start watching it?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Pretty concerning that the hi-res NAM 3k is really upping totals. This is the model I typically lean on when needing to pick up small details.
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Thursday. But right now the euro looks spot on realistic given expected conditions.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I really got spoiled being on pacific time for the past few days, euro coming out 9:45 local time. About to take a bumpy flight from Atlanta to Asheville.
WPC looks to keep expanding
Official Brad P. Forecast is nearly a carbon copy of the EURO. I would agree as euro is in its wheel/house. NAM is still too far out to trust IMO. 
Our local FOX 8 Van Denton says ------ It's a no go! IF moisture gets in before 9am MIGHT be some spotty ZR, but moisture looks to come in after 9am.
According to his Facebook yesterday, he said he was going with sleet. NWS also believes sleet/snow could occur early if precip is there. If there is a lull you could skip ZR altogether after some early sleet/snow mix then just goes to plain rain. Too far out to know the timing tho.
Lol. How specific. I agree it’s not ZR if it gets in early enough. 
GFS pretty much holding serve. It does have some micro 32 pockets over Greensboro and south of Wilkesboro at lunch time Friday so lots of time for sleet/ZR if it reaches the ground. It really won’t take much if a heavy band sets up to deposit a coating of sleet maybe even a flake mixed esp before 5am. I would say after 8am the sleet chances goes to all ZR until 1pm.
If the CMC is right, some areas don’t go above freezing until late Friday. Given the GFS is 32 in areas at lunch time, I would say either Mount Airy or Wilkesboro sits at or below freezing until or past sunset Friday. That’s how stubborn CAD is and gfs never captures it. Of course, 32 doesn’t support a lot of ice.
on paper it makes sense for temps to wet bulb and cool from 6am to 1pm Friday esp Greensboro south/west to hickory. I guess it’s possible but a lot relies on moisture placement and actually hitting the ground
I have a feeling as NAM gets closer it will show at or below freezing through 5pm Friday for a few folks along the escarpment.mostly being sleet to a light glaze that never melts till Friday night. Typical NC ice during the day but warming over night to melt into Saturday.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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NAM has less ice than last run
packfan98
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Looked like the 3k nam increased totals over the 0z run to me. Regular nam did decrease. I believe the 3k should pick up better with scattered drizzle which could be problematic.
It’s all going to boil down to what time the moisture moves in. If it moves in quite early could be a mess in many locations, if it waits till later no big deal.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I am utterly shocked! Didn’t see this coming!
Ethan80963!
Member
They all cut totals but still have freezing rain in the northern upstate in the frames after this. I'm also watching temps it seems that the NAM is initializing too warm.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Well for one, you’re skipping 9 hours. 9 hours in which the model is showing freezing rain.
Ethan80963!
Member
I don't know if it will affect this event but my dew points were supposed to bottom out at 22 later today and maintain this through Friday morning but as I write this my dew point is 12 and looks to still be dropping. This could end up having an interesting effect on this event if it were to stay this way through Friday morning.
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Doubt it matters it’s mostly not having widespread precip earlier. It’s spotty, drizzle and maybe not even reaching the ground.
Ethan80963!
Member
Welp...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Not surprising the 12k NAM has upped ice totals. Actually has GSP at warning level accumulation. I expect the 3k will be even better.
SimeonNC
Member
I have a feeling that if the CAD is stronger than modeled, a lot of folks will be surprised by this ice event.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yikes, 3k NAM has 0.75-1.00 inch of ice near the Saluda grade. Another maximum from bat cave NE up to Marion of 0.4-0.7.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
That's what I was trying to warn everyone about on Monday. If the CAD is strong enough, those southern slopes in Henderson County get the best of both worlds (orographic uplift and cold air)
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/potential-dec-13-14-ice-threat.659/page-3#post-217225
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep. From there NE toward Marion and up to Jonas Ridge is ground zero for CAD.
RGEM is an ice storm for many even into the afternoon hours. But usually doesn’t do well imo compared to euro. NAM will be something to watch tomorrow I think sometimes it’s usually a little too wet at this range.
CMC is now noticing how hard it is to erode the cad. At or below freezing all day Friday from Wilkes County back to west of Hickory. Very localized pockets even in the piedmont counties too.
As of now no change from me. Sleet mix northern mtns/hills then ZR. Ice will be severely limited in accumulation because of marginal temps but due to cold longer what does form could stay on the trees into Saturday particularly in the trees. Further south(Hickory,Statesville, Lenoir) I don’t see as much sleet mix mostly ZR to cold rain with similar ice of a trace to 0.1”.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
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GFS starting to play catch-up and recognize CAD now. Definitely a colder run especially in NC CAD areas.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I guarantee it will get 0 mention from local Mets down here, because it’s the NAM, and outlier. People will ignore the event, because Mets are saying no impact here and minimal impact into our NC viewing area
Someone post WPC maps. Thx
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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TWC , ot even a mention!?
SimeonNC
Member
Imagine if this turns out to be a major ice event for many in the Western NC area with little to no warning.
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Because it's a non event. Just like all the other fantasy storms showing up! Congrats DC! I mean since they're in such a snow hole always and never get any snow.