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Pattern Nippy November

GaWx said:
Look at how much colder is the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs around days 8+!
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If only that tilt was different, then there could really be something going. Regardless, that's one strong trough axis.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_36.png
gfs_z500_vort_seus_37.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
The ridge off the W coast looks a little out of position!? Seems it wouldn’t take much to dump all the cold into a Western Trough? It just looks weird, verbatim
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Kinda looks like our recent pattern tbh, this look kinda shows a pattern characterized by a ULL/trough in the SW/near Mexico and EC trough with northern stream energy swinging through, not bad for overrunning
 
Just saw the EPS at hour 270, and right when I was bouta click off the map, I saw a GOA ridge on it at hour 270, ummm we know that that has done to our EC trough before ?
 
But yet again it’s a -EPO with split flow below it, it could go either direction, sometimes we can get some real cold weather with a -EPO but sometimes it can shift the trough axis west and allow breathing room for the SER
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is probably one of the best patterns you could possibly get around here, only limitation being the time of year. Late November is right on the edge of our legitimate climo window here in the Carolinas.

View attachment 26025
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Once you flip the calendar to December it's game on for us the first 10 days of the month have done is well in the last 20 years no reason to think the last few days of November couldn't sneak something in
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is probably one of the best patterns you could possibly get around here, only limitation being the time of year. Late November is right on the edge of our legitimate climo window here in the Carolinas.

View attachment 26025
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I guess the hope is for pattern repetition. That seems to be the case most years. Which is mainly bad pattern repetition. I think most would agree that we are long overdue
 
SD said:
Once you flip the calendar to December it's game on for us the first 10 days of the month have done is well in the last 20 years no reason to think the last few days of November couldn't sneak something in
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I think December 2000 demonstrated that in North GA as well. Not to mention 2017.
 
GaWx said:
And consistent with the 12Z GFS, the latest GEFS (12Z) is back in the freezer.
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Oh, abbacusMan...why have we been getting front loaded winters? The key turns, the engine fires up, purrs like a throaty, 300 lb kitten, then starts to wheeze, then sputter, then just stall outs making summers longer and longer. What gives, abbacusMan? Is it sun spots, decaying mammoths in Siberia? Is it naughty southern boys and girls? Or is it simply a wiggle in the winds..on a repeating rythem... due to orbital purtuberance as our orb wobbles??
 
Anybody have the pattern , upper air, of right around/before the Dec 2002 Carolina crusher I’ve storm
 
This thing would have been a hell of a winter storm. I poured out 3.5, I've gotten another.5, and there's a bunch that could still come across. If it does I have to think I'll see another 5 inches out of this system. In 3 hrs or so it will have rained for 24. Sandwiching in between these two systems makes me look like a grass planting genius. 5 incher, plant pasture rye seed, gets up good in the washing out areas, roots get in strong, and bang, another 5 inches. Erosion control at it's finest :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is probably one of the best patterns you could possibly get around here, only limitation being the time of year. Late November is right on the edge of our legitimate climo window here in the Carolinas.

View attachment 26025
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I think we’re reloading and with this great pattern showing up once again and at the ladder half of November into early December we may be in for another early season winter type of event just as we saw last year I mean this pattern is only a couple weeks prior to when we got our storm last year ... and this set up honestly looks way more classic for a southeast winter event
 
Lots of folks here have a lot seemingly going for them. Just another look down the road with some good vibes for many of you. Really hope it lasts, or comes back in late December through January when it counts the most. But anyways, to the neighbors to the north of me, here's another good look for you all ... ;)

814temp.new.gif
 
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Nick_boynton_ said:
I think we’re reloading and with this great pattern showing up once again and at the ladder half of November into early December we may be in for another early season winter type of event just as we saw last year I mean this pattern is only a couple weeks prior to when we got our storm last year ... and this set up honestly looks way more classic for a southeast winter event
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It's definitely been a while since we've scored a big dog in November that was east-central NC-centric. In all honesty, if you look at NC's snowfall climatology, there's actually a relative local min/lull in our frequency of big storms east of the mountains during the last week of November. It's probably attributable to random chance/internal variability but intriguing nonetheless.

One of the last true sizable events in late Nov east of the mtns occurred in 1938, or for other areas, 1912. Feels like forever...
November 26-27 1938 NC Snowmap.png

November 27-28 1912 NC Snowmap.png
 
Yes, most big snows are more favorable in the months of December/Jan. in the Southeast, but if a good solid winter like pattern sets up, a big snow storm can still happen before December (during the fall months of course) It's just like how big snows can happen in the month of March, it's just opposite.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
Arcc said:
12z EPS. I know its still November, but I'm starting to think we get a threat around Thansgiving if this look holds. The 558dm benchmark line is sitting across TN.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png
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Probably will happen and affect my area (and areas that are on the same latitude in the south) as I'm due to leave for Florida on a Thanksgiving "vacation" then...that is a good look though.

To keep this from being banter/whamby...can't believe how wet today's been. It's rained for most of the day, if not all of it and on occasion there's been a steady about moderate rain with little to no returns on the radar. I rushed outside when there was no returns, but it was still that steady rain.

Be surprised if we didn't get 1-2" at the least today.
 
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