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Pattern Nippy November

Sleet City USA said:
37/27 and cloudy right now. Looking at radar, some light precip moving in fairly soon. Would I be wrong to rule out non-liquid precip?
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It looks like your wet-bulb temp would be about 33.5 degrees. Temps above you are at or above freezing until about 8,000 ft, so, you get cool rain.
 
Rain Cold said:
GFS has a little bit, but honestly, I'd look much more closely at the NAM, RGEM, HRRR (when it's in range) than the globals, except maybe the Euro. I don't know what it's showing, though.
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Nothing...... well check that - cold rain
 
The OBX are going to get put on blast for beach erosion and surge issues.....Ocracoke does not want 24+hrs of 30-50 mph north winds.....3k Nam wind gust map has gust into the 40's inland to the Hwy 17ish corridor.....
 
Downeastnc said:
The OBX are going to get put on blast for beach erosion and surge issues.....Ocracoke does not want 24+hrs of 30-50 mph north winds.....3k Nam wind gust map has gust into the 40's inland to the Hwy 17ish corridor.....
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Yeah that part not getting a bunch of attention but it's going to be rough down there for sure. As you mentioned beach erosion real problem and they just opened Hwy 12 back up

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Next up, this ULL has my attention, of course we'll be watching this feature on future model runs. I drew out on where the ULL may track off to. It's too early to determine the exact track. This ULL could be a beast, from snow to severe weather. Predicting on where the snow will be with an ULL can be extremely difficult. At this time, I do not think it will cut, I think it will remain on a south track. gfs_z500_vort_us_27.jpg
 
WxWatch said:
Next up, this ULL has my attention, of course we'll be watching this feature on future model runs. I drew out on where the ULL may track off to. It's too early to determine the exact track. This ULL could be a beast, from snow to severe weather. Predicting on where the snow will be with an ULL can be extremely difficult. At this time, I do not think it will cut, I think it will remain on a south track. View attachment 25991
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And the result will likely be mountain maybe Tennessee snow.


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Jessy89 said:
And the result will likely be mountain maybe Tennessee snow.


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Much prefer to track a ULL and really hope somebody gets snow from it than track a TC and really, really hope somebody / anybody besides me gets destroyed ... not selfish ... just real ... and just a matter of seasons ...
 
pcbjr said:
Much prefer to track a ULL and really hope somebody gets snow from it than track a TC and really, really hope somebody / anybody besides me gets destroyed ... not selfish ... just real ... and just a matter of seasons ...
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Oh I agree I’m just ready for the real fun to begin. Maybe December has a nice winter storm for most people. Like the last two years brought


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Jessy89 said:
Oh I agree I’m just ready for the real fun to begin. Maybe December has a nice winter storm for most people. Like the last two years brought


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Just hope it stalls until really late Dec and plays into Jan ... or I have egg all over me ... o_O
 
WxWatch said:
Next up, this ULL has my attention, of course we'll be watching this feature on future model runs. I drew out on where the ULL may track off to. It's too early to determine the exact track. This ULL could be a beast, from snow to severe weather. Predicting on where the snow will be with an ULL can be extremely difficult. At this time, I do not think it will cut, I think it will remain on a south track. View attachment 25991
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I like that ULL, It almost looks like the December storm. Taking Verbatim
GFS
gfs_z500a_us_36.png
gfs_z500_vort_us_36.png

December Storm
gfs_z500a_noram_2018120900.png
gfs_z500_vort_noram_2018120900.png
 
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WxWatch said:
Next up, this ULL has my attention, of course we'll be watching this feature on future model runs. I drew out on where the ULL may track off to. It's too early to determine the exact track. This ULL could be a beast, from snow to severe weather. Predicting on where the snow will be with an ULL can be extremely difficult. At this time, I do not think it will cut, I think it will remain on a south track. View attachment 25991
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Further more, the reason why I don't think it will cut, because while the ULL is tracking east, a trough is going to drop down from Canada at the same time, thus resulting a more southern track for the ULL. Of course, if the northern stream dips down even more, the ULL will track further south. Either way, this ULL is going to tap into the Gulf. gfs_z500_vort_us_30.jpg
 
WxWatch said:
It's too early to figure out who gets what. Right now, it's more important to look at various possible setups up at H5.
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Did you notice tonight the PV moves back toward the pole in two-three weeks. Leaving Siberia looking colder.


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It's going to be interesting to see how this November ends up but chances look strong for the month to end up with below normal temperatures for most of the Southeast US. It's crazy to say, but likely (barring a torchy November 2020) that the 1991-2020 average temperatures for November will actually be colder than the 1981-2010 averages. December, and most of the rest of the months as a whole, are a different story, though.
1573787878570.png
1573787940126.png
 
CyclonicFury said:
It's going to be interesting to see how this November ends up but chances look strong for the month to end up with below normal temperatures for most of the Southeast US. It's crazy to say, but likely (barring a torchy November 2020) that the 1991-2020 average temperatures for November will actually be colder than the 1981-2010 averages. December, and most of the rest of the months as a whole, are a different story, though.
View attachment 26003
View attachment 26004
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I was actually going to propose this question, but you already answered it. I wonder how much closer November averages will be to December's.

So far we are emulating last year, hopefully it won't though as we go through December.
 
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This really is very interesting. It's really like this pattern is locked in and just repeats, just like last year but opposite. Very long range GEFS and GEPS show the same thing as happening now. Reloading Aleutian low, ridging from Scandinavia into Greenland and a western ridge. I'd think long range EPS shows the same.
 
Arcc said:
This really is very interesting. It's really like this pattern is locked in and just repeats, just like last year but opposite. Very long range GEFS and GEPS show the same thing as happening now. Reloading Aleutian low, ridging from Scandinavia into Greenland and a western ridge. I'd think long range EPS shows the same.
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Pinch me I must be dreaming..
 
weatherfide said:
Yes, I have 43 and dropping. Rain has arrived. Expecting to get drought relief over the next few weeks.
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Man, these last two gulf systems have had a great tap. Nearly 5 from the last one and a bit over 3 so far for this one, and still raining. Didn't start until after dark, and a steady rain all night. I hope this speaks well for winter. Over 8 inches in two storms less than weeks apart, after a droughty summer. Throw one of these into some bitter air and it's happy time in the SE :)
 
pcbjr said:
Much prefer to track a ULL and really hope somebody gets snow from it than track a TC and really, really hope somebody / anybody besides me gets destroyed ... not selfish ... just real ... and just a matter of seasons ...
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I can't believe you don't want to sacrifice yourself for all of us! Must have woke up on the wrong side of the bed, lol. Let's hope you get a lot of sleet, and heavy fluffies this winter, and no sacrifice necessary. I'm still at 46 at 11:30 and rain. It's like an old time winter around here. Cold rain/cool rain/gulf tap equal happy faces in Nov before Tday. Now for some cad drizzle, and cold fog for 5 days, and it will be like Thanksgivings of my youth :)
 
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