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Pattern Scorchtember

Cad Wedge NC said:
I still keep up with the "other board" but rarely post there. I used to post on several sites, but most of them are dead now.
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It's actually sad (at least to me). I go back to the easternwx days. Then when that stopped I was one of the first to join americanwx. For many years it was a great site; especially when Robert was posting. We would have Burger do the play by play of the model runs and pack would cause some kind of controversy (..anybody hear from him?). The last couple of years saw a lot of folks drop off. It's now only a shell of its former self. But like I said, it's nice to see a lot of you from that time over here.
 
FallsLake said:
Thanks man! I've been over on the "other site". It's nice to see a lot of familiar names from the past.
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You ain't kidding; seeing the posters here has been like a trip down memory lane or at least in my case, faulty memory lane.

Looking forward to the brief cool down later this week; love this time of year sans hurricanes.
 
ATLwxfan said:
GFS is a disaster after this brief CAD event. The pattern change is pretty much gone through the end of the run.


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The only good thing, it shows the dew points staying relatively low (50s to low 60s). I can take warm weather as long as it's not too humid. Of course precip is another thing (very little over the SE the next two weeks).
 
CraggyRider said:
You ain't kidding; seeing the posters here has been like a trip down memory lane or at least in my case, faulty memory lane.

Looking forward to the brief cool down later this week; love this time of year sans hurricanes.
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Yep, October is usually perfect. Great (window opening) temps and you don't have the pollen like in April (the other great month). But it can be dry (I think it's the driest by average).
 
ATLwxfan said:
GFS is a disaster after this brief CAD event. The pattern change is pretty much gone through the end of the run.


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You aren’t kidding there and the Euro/EPS is a nightmare. In fact one of the ugliest set of runs I’ve seen for this time of year. Drought will be a key word if they verify.
 
GEFS shows little relief after this mid-late week cooldown event. We're in it for the long haul. Let's see if we can have an even later last 90F day than last year (Oct 6)

EDIT: upon more detailed inspection, its not total scorch. Largely 3-5F above average for this run, at least.
 
Sleet City USA said:
GEFS shows little relief after this mid-late week cooldown event. We're in it for the long haul. Let's see if we can have an even later last 90F day than last year (Oct 6)

EDIT: upon more detailed inspection, its not total scorch. Largely 3-5F above average for this run, at least.
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Yeah and that little mid late week cool Down... not looking as promising as it was now...
 
Arcc said:
You aren’t kidding there and the Euro/EPS is a nightmare. In fact one of the ugliest set of runs I’ve seen for this time of year. Drought will be a key word if they verify.
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Yeah, this is worse than bad. Sucks to have yet another blowtorch fall. Though, the next couple of days will be nice.

This is just getting us ready for winter. Though, it won’t be in the 80’s this winter...I hope.


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KyloG said:
Yeah, this is worse than bad. Sucks to have yet another blowtorch fall. Though, the next couple of days will be nice.

This is just getting us ready for winter. Though, it won’t be in the 80’s this winter...I hope.


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What's it gonna take to get a pattern flip?
 
ATL metro is mainly 1-2 warmer than 24 hours ago with lower dew points and sunny skies. Yesterday’s KATL high was 96. You do the math.
 
GaWx said:
ATL metro is mainly 1-2 warmer than 24 hours ago with lower dew points and sunny skies. Yesterday’s KATL high was 96. You do the math.
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There's more mid-level moisture/clouds today, mainly in the NE part of the metro. That may cap the high temperature potential slightly.

EDIT: RIP Newnan though (with mainly clear skies and the worst of the drought conditions).
 
6z GFS really wasn't terrible to me outside of the dryness factor. It's largely warmer than average but at least the dew points aren't high.

too bad it's probably wrong...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It would be crazy if October ends up hotter than July. Has that ever happened?
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It would be crazy it’s also NOT happening. Could we have some 90 degree days, sure. But the laws of physics will not be undone. Even if we are well above normal in Atlanta it’ll be mid 80’s by day and low 60’s at night by mid October.


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KyloG said:
Patience, we have been on a streak of AN falls, the last BN fall I remember was in 2009. Maybe this is a new norm and we should just accept it. No coincidence that we are on a streak of AN winters.

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It is the new normal. When temperature normals get recalibrated the maps will show these temps to be normal, recency bias kicks in and we will largely become oblivious to it. Maybe not all of us...


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ATLwxfan said:
It would be crazy it’s also NOT happening. Could we have some 90 degree days, sure. But the laws of physics will not be undone. Even if we are well above normal in Atlanta it’ll be mid 80’s by day and low 60’s at night by mid October.


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If we're talking October being hotter than July In terms of departure from average, that's happened before and can happen again.

But yeah, it would be very difficult for October's average temp to be hotter than July's average temp.
 
SouthATLwx said:
If we're talking October being hotter than July In terms of departure from average, that's happened before and can happen again.

But yeah, it would be very difficult for October's average temp to be hotter than July's average temp.
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Higher departures from normal would be more likely in the winter months... Winter temps can have very large swings between record highs and record lows.
 
Got 40’s coming this week that is too COLD for me in September.
 
GEFS giving us a few wedge setups. Take what you can get at this point. More like early May but at least less like August...or September as it were.


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Bone dry on the GFS
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SoutheastRidge said:
95 at Birmingham at 11am which is 5 degrees warmer than at 11am yesterday. They made it up to 98 yesterday.
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At 2 PM, KATL had already tied yesterday's high of 96 and was then at 95, which is 2 hotter than 24 hours ago. A 98 is looking more and more possible, folks. UNBELIEVABLE!
 
GaWx said:
At 2 PM, KATL had already tied yesterday's high of 96 and was then at 95, which is 2 hotter than 24 hours ago. A 98 is looking more and more possible, folks. UNBELIEVABLE!
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I was thinking it could make a run at 100*F.
 
SouthATLwx said:
I was thinking it could make a run at 100*F.
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Yeah, I'd give 100 something like a 10% chance....so not out of the realm of possibilities. That would make it the latest 100 by 8 days going back to 1879!!
As it is, I think 98+ is about a 2 in 3 chance as of now. 99+ is maybe a 1 in 3 chance. I can't believe we're talking about temps like this on 9/17 in Atlanta!
 
I have a feeling Birmingham will hit 100 today. They are at 99 at 3pm. I wonder when the latest 100+ occurrence in Birmingham is ?

Edit: Birmingham's latest 100+ day was on 9-22-1925
 
Incredible day here in the NRV. currently 76 with a nice Northeast breeze. Topped at 80 earlier. It looks like an absolute scorcher in Alabama, Georgia and parts of SC.
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I'd give 100 something like a 10% chance....so not out of the realm of possibilities. That would make it the latest 100 by 8 days going back to 1879!!
As it is, I think 98+ is about a 2 in 3 chance as of now. 99+ is maybe a 1 in 3 chance. I can't believe we're talking about temps like this on 9/17 in Atlanta!
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Larry,
Do you think we will need alot of changes between now and beginning of December to realistically get excited about winter or is it too early still to know?
 
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