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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Seems like the left split cell tucked the whole meso back into the main supercell, interesting
 
GaWx said:
For the 2nd time in 2 weeks, there was a tornado in the SAV metro. This one caused damage on Wilmington Island to a restaurant and to a Goodwill store. It also
caused damage at the SAV Yacht Club (where there was a minor injury) on Whitemarsh Island:

https://www.wsav.com/amp/news/local...of-wilmington-island-after-tornado/1978977448

This followed the @Brick Tamland rule as there was no watch of any kind.

Prior to this, this thunderstorm produced about 1” of badly needed rain for much of the area including at my place starting around 4 PM. This was at or near the 2nd heaviest rain event for my place in 2019, second to the 2.5” or so of 4/9/19. I had actually been planning to water my grass tonight for the first time in several weeks, but that’s no longer needed.

Interestingly, this is the 3rd tornado to hit either Wilmington Island or Whitemarsh Island over just the last two years and none were associated with a tropical system! However, it does appear that the three tracks didn’t intersect.
Click to expand...

Further to the above, here's the NWS damage survey report, which says it was as strong as high end EF1 tornado on part of southern Whitemarsh Island before weakening over far western Wilmington Island though there was still damage there. It was on the ground for only ~4 minutes:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
629 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2019

..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR MAY 4 2019 TORNADO EVENT


WHITEMARSH/WILMINGTON ISLAND TORNADO

START LOCATION...1 WNW TURNERS ROCK IN CHATHAM COUNTY GA
END LOCATION...WILMINGTON ISLAND IN CHATHAM COUNTY GA
DATE...05/04/2019
ESTIMATED TIME...4:53 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...105 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...170 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2.22 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...32.0197 / -81.0184
ENDING LAT/LON...32.0152 / -80.9812
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...1

..SUMMARY

THE TORNADO BEGAN OVER THE WILMINGTON RIVER, JUST WEST OF THE SAVANNAH YACHT CLUB ON WHITEMARSH ISLAND. IT DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AS IT HIT THE SAVANNAH YACHT CLUB. AT THE TIME THE TORNADO STRUCK, A BOAT WAS BEING LIFTED BY A CRANE AT THE DOCK. THIS BOAT WAS THROWN FROM THE CRANE BACK INTO THE WATER. THE BOAT CRANE WAS ALSO PUSHED BY THE WINDS OF THE TORNADO OFF OF ITS TRACK, WHICH CAUSED IT TO CRASH INTO A SMALL BUILDING NEAR THE CRANE. THIS SMALL BUILDING SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. ONE PERSON WAS REPORTEDLY INJURED INSIDE THE BUILDING, BUT THE EXTENT OF THEIR INJURIES WAS UNKNOWN AT THE TIME OF THIS REPORT.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST, SNAPPING AND UPROOTING SEVERAL TREES IN A RESIDENTIAL AREA NEAR THE END OF BRADLEY CREEK DRIVE. ONE HOME IN THAT AREA ALSO HAD MINOR ROOF DAMAGE DUE TO MISSING SHINGLES.

FROM THIS POINT, THE TORNADO STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVED
SOUTHEAST OVER BRADLEY CREEK AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF TURNERS ROCK ROAD. THIS WAS THE REGION WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS FOUND, WITH AT LEAST TWO DOZEN LARGE HARD AND SOFTWOOD TREES EITHER SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. WIND SPEEDS IN THIS AREA WERE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 MPH.

THE TORNADO THEN WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ON A MORE EASTERLY PATH ACROSS TURNER CREEK AND ONTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF WILMINGTON ISLAND, JUST SOUTH OF JOHNNY MERCER
BOULEVARD. THE TORNADO BROKE SOME TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES AROUND WALGREENS, THEN DAMAGED A SIGN NEAR THE AUTOPLEX AS IT CROSSED JOHNNY MERCER BOULEVARD. ONCE ACROSS JOHNNY MERCER BOULEVARD, THE WEAKENING TORNADO SKIPPED OVER MOLLY MCGUIRE'S RESTAURANT, FINALLY ENDING AT AT 4:57 PM EDT IN THE EMPTY LOT JUST EAST OF THE GOODWILL STORE. THE ROOF ON THE GOODWILL STORE SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA.
 
Hey can anyone give me a idea on how the gulf shores alabama forecast looks from may 11th-18th? From the gfs it looks like itll be raining about everyday or is that just the gfs picking up on afternoon summertime "popcorn" storms?
 
I'm honestly curious what EF rating that tornado is going to get, because while it was big and the sound was eerie when you got an idea of how the sound was outside, the power line didn't come down and there was just damage of it. Maybe in the west though, the power lines are bolted in a bit more tightly?
 
^^^^
Rarely do both the CPC Super and the CPC Outlook coincide ... and when they do, it's a pretty good tell-tale sign ...


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Jesus, looking at the 7 day qpf from the WPC you would think a hurricane is about to hit the south.
 
I'm thinking if tomorrow busts in the Panhandle then it's going to kill that MCS too. Not saying that tomorrow will, but I'll keep my eyes on it.
 
The day 2 is absurdly early and says test but the text matches this now has the enhanced southeast of Dallas

swody2_categorical.png
 
Spc has a moderate today for very large hail, wind damage, and several tornadoes, especially at the TX panhandle, one thing that could go against tornadoes is lower DPs/higher LCLs, but they will likely lower with the LLVL jet later
 
Good to see the models drying up in the extended. Euro dropped a good 2 inches off in the last couple days

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
I’ve already reached my monthly May average for rain and additional heavy rain has fired up now in Ashe County NC. Additional sink holes have formed beside US 421 in Wilkesboro near Taco Bell. Some businesses are closing and Tractor Supply was asked today to join a law suit.
 
Enjoy early next week's "cool down" while it lasts...
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Low level shear should start ramping up, which is one of the main reasons for lack of tornadoes today in Texas
 
TXTornado said:
I don’t know if it is down
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I think it was rain wrapped if it is based off what I saw on Jeff's stream (it looked like you could *just* see a wedge). That stream is pretty spooky. It's like you can't see a thing, but you know what's going on.
 
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