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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Myfrotho704_ said:
Not to shabby, I’d go with a MCS, winds closer to the convection (LA/MS/AR/TN) at lower levels isn’t really backing and are more SW/SSW, more supportive of a MCS/line segments, AL actually has the best backing of low level winds and stronger 850 (0–3km) shear on the gfs, little bit of a weird setup, 500 mb winds will likely be out of the west so any backing of lower level winds could be a issue View attachment 19425View attachment 19426View attachment 19427View attachment 19428
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Lot of time for this to change but there's definitely some potential for bad weather.
 
Drove through not one, not two, not three, but FOUR extremely heavy storms on the way back from the beach. visibility was essentially nothing. the worst ones were around 4-5pm southeast of Columbia SC
 
Getting gusty winds and lots of lightning. Raining pretty good and it feels great outside. Looks like it has set in for a while.

F9F76EC4-5E2A-429A-98B3-DA30D6C77CAF.png
 
For the 2nd time in 2 weeks, there was a tornado in the SAV metro. This one caused damage on Wilmington Island to a restaurant and to a Goodwill store. It also
caused damage at the SAV Yacht Club (where there was a minor injury) on Whitemarsh Island:

https://www.wsav.com/amp/news/local...of-wilmington-island-after-tornado/1978977448

This followed the @Brick Tamland rule as there was no watch of any kind.

Prior to this, this thunderstorm produced about 1” of badly needed rain for much of the area including at my place starting around 4 PM. This was at or near the 2nd heaviest rain event for my place in 2019, second to the 2.5” or so of 4/9/19. I had actually been planning to water my grass tonight for the first time in several weeks, but that’s no longer needed.

Interestingly, this is the 3rd tornado to hit either Wilmington Island or Whitemarsh Island over just the last two years and none were associated with a tropical system! However, it does appear that the three tracks didn’t intersect.
 
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If radar is right it seems as if it's going to get lit here pretty soon storms wise. Might not be a severe warning but the storms headed my way definitely look strong.

Edit: Just got missed by the heavy thunderstorm, only had a brief 5 minute shower or so but I'm still hearing the thunder in the distance.
 
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Some lightning and heavier rain right now, but seems like it'll just be a run of the mill thunderstorm.

Edit: I lied, pretty decent thunderstorm, and it's picking up again and I'm probably not done given what's on the radar.
 
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Picked up 1.67 yesterday/last night! Only .5 from the evening thunderstorms, the rest from an awesom batch of stratoform rain around midnight!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Picked up 1.67 yesterday/last night! Only .5 from the evening thunderstorms, the rest from an awesom batch of stratoform rain around midnight!
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Will you go cut my grass? I’ll buy you a couple BoBerry biscuits when I get back ??
 
The 12z nam has a trend of bringing the low more southeast. But its out of forecast range to see how it ejects or if it deepens.
 
I picked up 1.5" yesterday and most of it was probably late at night during those thunderstorms and later just the heavy rain, maybe .25 was from one of those earlier storms.
 
Ended up getting .7” yesterday most of it was from the early afternoon. Kinda of upset though because just about 5 miles to my northwest storms kept passing over the same area and they ended up with about 2-3”. Maybe next time I will end up in the jackpot zone.
 
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Can't beat today's weather. Temps in the 60s, dews in the 40s, not a cloud in the sky, and a light breeze !
 
Webberweather53 said:
When I dissected the winter storms into "Miller B", "Hybrid/Anafrontal", & "Miller A" some interesting, yet generally anticipated results came about.

As I've always harped on here for the last few years, there are definitely distinct planetary-scale pattern differences between the two storm types, with Miller Bs often occurring in conjunction w/ big -EPO blocks and Miller A cyclones in NC favored w/ a predominant -NAO. These results are extremely significant, especially considering that both 500 hPa composites have about 200 days in them. Hybrid/Anafrontal type storms are essentially a blend of these two composites.

View attachment 19311

View attachment 19310
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I actually caught a bug in this initial code which significantly changed the Miller B z500 composite. Here's a 4-panel composite analysis of hemispheric 500 hPa height anomalies and corresponding MSLPa near the east coast for Miller A & Miller B cyclones.

NCEPR1 MSLPa & z500 NC Miller A & B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
With a late day high of 80*F today, the 80*F+ streak continues. We're now on day 8.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I dont know how you handle it Phil. It was 70 here the other day but it was very humid and i was sweating like crazy !
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#2 ...
Not bad ... not a 92º in sight ... :eek: ...

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. West wind 3 to 8 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East wind 3 to 8 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 87.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
 
pcbjr said:
#2 ...
Not bad ... not a 92º in sight ... :eek: ...

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. West wind 3 to 8 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East wind 3 to 8 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 87.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
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#winning
 
Late spring/summer, the only times of the years that make regular rain showers look nice, this only had 1 clap of thunder but had a nice outflow boundary 1557098296556.jpeg
 
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