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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

64 degrees rain cooled air. 20 degrees hotter to my east in Winston. That was a textbook summer storm that drifted east into the foothills before disappearing.
 
The 18z nam compared to the 12z nam isn't as impressive with the low pressure system.nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_56.pngnam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_60.png
 
I almost want to say I think tomorrow ends up more active than the models show but that generally leads to disappointment

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Could see some strong storms today, gusty outflows the main threat with pulse T-Storms, inverted Vs, decent DCAPE, steep 0-3km lapse rates, dry air aloft, good environment for strong outflows/weaker downbursts today
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BirdManDoomW said:
Heat lightning in Wilkes. Dry and breezy while buckets are being poured to the west. Going to need flood advisories soon.
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You definitely have some reading to do. There is a big difference between "dry lightning", as you described, and "heat lightning". Please read more post less!
 
Weathermen out here in Oklahoma are remembering the May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak today. News channel 9 puts on a good broadcast. CJ and JC need to step their game up
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Slight area was expanded for tomorrow
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Blacksburg lost Verizon signal...guessing Raleigh will be covering Wilkes today.
 
Looks like two systems may effect the southeast the coming week. Looking at the GFS and Euro it doesn't seem to look that bad but the placement of the low pressure system will be important. Considering itll be mid may instability should be in good supply.
 
Your average late spring/summertime microburst soundings, moderate-high Theta-E advection, 2000-3000 jkg of SBcape, weak-moderate 0-6km bulk shear, decent DCAPE, noice soundings that support wet microbursts and like what @Zander98al said, cool shelfies 8702FE76-E93F-4231-98E8-54B7383FFCDF.png67A6B420-8B64-41D3-B1A8-CCBE7B096383.png4F191583-B2EE-488C-9E94-510751DBD629.pngCC4C1A1A-E02F-428A-A129-14B4EFD1C8B8.png
 
More storms at 11pm. I’ve had more rain first 3 days of May than monthly norm.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m 15 miles east of Moore right now. They’ve been talking about this tornado anniversary all day on the news. It still gives the locals nightmares 20 years later. This is their unwanted claim to fame
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Hurry home, you’re missing a big severe outbreak tomorrow! Which means drizzle at best!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Hurry home, you’re missing a big severe outbreak tomorrow! Which means drizzle at best!?
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Post pictures please. ?? I will bring the mojo back home with me. We were under a Flash Flood Warning until 4pm today. Standing water in the roads and major highways. Dirt and gravel roads were washed out. They say the rain has been relentless here since early March
 
Some light damage occurred along and just south of 421 Wilkesboro. Blacksburg did not give a good lead time due to being backed up by I assume NWS Raleigh. Storm was over when I got the Warning.
 

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m 15 miles east of Moore right now. They’ve been talking about this tornado anniversary all day on the news. It still gives the locals nightmares 20 years later. This is their unwanted claim to fame
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pretty crazy they got hit in 2013 too

Before I moved here we drove through there a few months later and the damage was incredible

But nothing will top driving through Joplin after theirs on the same trip(as we went back to Bama slowly) and it had been 2 years already
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Possible Tropical Storm Wilkes Co NC
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Myfrotho704_ said:
I can see the storm surge of dust in my yard, the birds are coming towards me, the wind mightily coming from the SE, I can see the outer bands of capped cumulus here ?
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I have figured it out .... the only reason that he's still here is the mods keep him for comic relief..... he certainly doesn't add anything educational to our forum.
 
HRRR looks violent western Piedmont/northern foothills.
 
Hmmm, hrrr mixes out DPs during the afternoon with diurnal heating, results in less cape but nearly a 30 degree sfc temp-DP depression for some areas, that would add to the wind threat in return for lower cape, if storms survive heading in drier low levels/inverted V anyways, not really much of a hail sounding C410A3D7-C964-408E-8C64-3A0656FC0350.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hmmm, hrrr mixes out DPs during the afternoon with diurnal heating, results in less cape but nearly a 30 degree sfc temp-DP depression for some areas, that would add to the wind threat in return for lower cape, if storms survive heading in drier low levels/inverted V anyways, not really much of a hail sounding View attachment 19404
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Snippet fro GSP DC71DE30-E3CA-4FC9-95CF-FE5E640251F1.png
 
cd2play said:
Blackberry winter
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Certainly looks like we may cool down and see some wetter conditions for the the mid month period. I'm not sure im ready to go all in on some of the low 70s the eps has

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, some areas mix out, while some areas don’t (bigger hail risk)
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Full sun here now and muggy! Have some high hopes for good storms this afternoon! 1” of rain or bust!
 
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