Marginal Risk issued for a select few in NC today, northern foothills near Wilkes, for flooding. WPC says “slow and chaotic movement possible with thunderstorms”.
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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Cape values up to 1,400 today with a cap of 13k. HRRR favors Charlotte, NC with a stalled storm.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah that's a no. No MD's or any special advisories of any sort. Let's not forget to mention there is only an isolated risk of a strong thunderstorm at best. I'm not sure what your source is there.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
To follow up, there is a marginal risk on day 3. Is this what you are referring to?Yeah that's a no. No MD's or any special advisories of any sort. Let's not forget to mention there is only an isolated risk of a strong thunderstorm at best. I'm not sure what your source is there.
BufordWX
Member
I think he was mentioning the marginal risk for excessive rainfall issued by the WPC.To follow up, there is a marginal risk on day 3. Is this what you are referring to?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That makes more sense.
Yes rainfall for today. Ashe County NC has a stationary thunderstorm already. Within the marginal risk.
Yeah I was about to say, no sort of severe wx likely, lol mid level lapse rates are truly garbage to the point lightning is unlikely (4.5-5.5 C, that’s trashhhh
Oh man! That line tho ?. Ground truth is uncertain. I’d like a picture of those clouds rolling in. Someone find it
Small but mighty..1-3” easily coming down from Mountain City TN to south of Boone NC to western Wilkes. Chaotic storm movement to stationary.
Brent
Member
64 degrees here at 4pm in May
Meh. looked better on radar?
64 degrees here at 4pm in May
Bundle up. 84 on the car thermometer here
NoSnowATL
Member
64 degrees here at 4pm in May
We can’t even hit that for a low. 86 today.
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Brent
Member
lol, our entire forecast is below normal through the weekend, average is into the 80s
NoSnowATL
Member
I guess you should enjoy it because the 100s aren’t that far away for you guys.
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Dove into some 32oz Dos Equis after work. It was a good day 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Happy Cinco de MayoDove into some 32oz Dos Equis after work. It was a good day
It’s after 10pm and still seeing thunder showers in Wilkes coming up through the eastern brushy mountains.
87*F on this side of town.
BufordWX
Member
SPC has put out a marginal risk for severe weather for some of us on Saturday.
Gusty winds are the main threat.
Gusty winds are the main threat.
Little bit similar to last system, wannabe tropical system/little coastal low east with a MCS in the central part of the SE, and stronger multicellular clusters/transient supercells in between (GA/NC/SC/AL) and also like last system, stronger wind energy around 3-6km AGL and lacking llvl wind shear
BufordWX
Member
Marginal risk today now covers most of Metro Atlanta.
The QLCS over Birmingham looks to be increasing in strength, so it could get interesting.
The QLCS over Birmingham looks to be increasing in strength, so it could get interesting.
BufordWX
Member
Still strengthening now they there are multiple tornado warnings around Huntsville. Definitely could be interesting tonight.
Day 3 marginal risk for “rain” (don’t step on my shoes!!!!) for Wilkes and slight risk back into Tennessee. Rain continues.
MCS is the summer version of CAD, they stick around longer
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Just spoke with my Daughter who works in the Research Park area of Huntsville and she said it went right over their building. Totally black and definite rotation just not down. I trained her well. She sound professional telling me about it.
Rotation SE of Langston. Not tor warned
Now it’s warned. NWS needs to hire me. I can interpret a Super Hi Res Velocity map with the best of them ?
Correction: It still only covers the western half of Metro Atlanta.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0602.html
Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019
Areas affected...Northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast
Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 091847Z - 092015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A fast northeast-moving convective line will continue to
pose a wind damage risk along with the potential for a brief tornado
from northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to
accelerate (40-45 kt) northeastward across northeast Alabama as of
130pm CDT. It is likely now being aided by an MCV with 50+
southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2km AGL noted per recent
Huntsville AL WSR-88D VWP data. Bowing segments aside, low-level
shear vs. line orientation has been favorable for mesovortex
evolution within the line. Primary short-term uncertainty is a
considerable downstream weakening of overall buoyancy into northwest
Georgia, and particularly with northward extent across southeast
Tennessee. However, line-preceding lapse rates are relatively steep
with temperatures in the upper 70s/near 80F. Furthermore, the
well-organized/fast-forward motion of the line itself suggests that
isolated wind damage will remain a possibility into southeast
Tennessee/northwest Georgia. That said, the overall QLCS is expected
to undergo a weakening trend over the next 1-2 hours (particularly
on the north end of the convective line).
..Guyer.. 05/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 34198622 34828636 35388557 35578456 34528410 33208496
33578569 34198622
Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019
Areas affected...Northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast
Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 091847Z - 092015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A fast northeast-moving convective line will continue to
pose a wind damage risk along with the potential for a brief tornado
from northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee.
DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to
accelerate (40-45 kt) northeastward across northeast Alabama as of
130pm CDT. It is likely now being aided by an MCV with 50+
southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2km AGL noted per recent
Huntsville AL WSR-88D VWP data. Bowing segments aside, low-level
shear vs. line orientation has been favorable for mesovortex
evolution within the line. Primary short-term uncertainty is a
considerable downstream weakening of overall buoyancy into northwest
Georgia, and particularly with northward extent across southeast
Tennessee. However, line-preceding lapse rates are relatively steep
with temperatures in the upper 70s/near 80F. Furthermore, the
well-organized/fast-forward motion of the line itself suggests that
isolated wind damage will remain a possibility into southeast
Tennessee/northwest Georgia. That said, the overall QLCS is expected
to undergo a weakening trend over the next 1-2 hours (particularly
on the north end of the convective line).
..Guyer.. 05/09/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 34198622 34828636 35388557 35578456 34528410 33208496
33578569 34198622
new day 1. strange looking slight risk lol
Even though Im not crazy about winters in the MW im glad summer doesnt come so early. Looking forward to highs near 60 the next 4 days.
Brent
Member
pcbjr
Member
Just wondering what the probability of BN in the desert SW at the cusp of summer means in terms of real temps ...
Going to be very tropical tonight in the NC foothills already very breezy with iso lift drizzle and light rain developing per NAM after midnight. With embedded heavy rain showers and eventually a few storms tomorrow if morning rain/fog abates per NWS.
Getting somewhat optimistic about rain chances over the weekend. Euro keeps me from getting really excited since it holds the heavier stuff to the west. Could be a big weekend for some areas where 2-3 bands of storms may move through.
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