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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

Marginal Risk issued for a select few in NC today, northern foothills near Wilkes, for flooding. WPC says “slow and chaotic movement possible with thunderstorms”.
 
Cape values up to 1,400 today with a cap of 13k. HRRR favors Charlotte, NC with a stalled storm.
 
Marginal Risk issued for a select few in NC today, northern foothills near Wilkes, for flooding. WPC says “slow and chaotic movement possible with thunderstorms”.
Yeah that's a no. No MD's or any special advisories of any sort. Let's not forget to mention there is only an isolated risk of a strong thunderstorm at best. I'm not sure what your source is there.
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Yes rainfall for today. Ashe County NC has a stationary thunderstorm already. Within the marginal risk.
 
Small but mighty..1-3” easily coming down from Mountain City TN to south of Boone NC to western Wilkes. Chaotic storm movement to stationary.
 
It’s after 10pm and still seeing thunder showers in Wilkes coming up through the eastern brushy mountains.
 
SPC has put out a marginal risk for severe weather for some of us on Saturday.
View attachment 19488
Gusty winds are the main threat.

Little bit similar to last system, wannabe tropical system/little coastal low east with a MCS in the central part of the SE, and stronger multicellular clusters/transient supercells in between (GA/NC/SC/AL) and also like last system, stronger wind energy around 3-6km AGL and lacking llvl wind shear
 
Marginal risk today now covers most of Metro Atlanta.

The QLCS over Birmingham looks to be increasing in strength, so it could get interesting.
 
Marginal risk today now covers most of Metro Atlanta.

The QLCS over Birmingham looks to be increasing in strength, so it could get interesting.
Still strengthening now they there are multiple tornado warnings around Huntsville. Definitely could be interesting tonight.337B5432-F7DE-46AF-9332-9F134DDE921B.png
 
Day 3 marginal risk for “rain” (don’t step on my shoes!!!!) for Wilkes and slight risk back into Tennessee. Rain continues.
 
Still strengthening now they there are multiple tornado warnings around Huntsville. Definitely could be interesting tonight.View attachment 19491
Just spoke with my Daughter who works in the Research Park area of Huntsville and she said it went right over their building. Totally black and definite rotation just not down. I trained her well. She sound professional telling me about it.
 
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0602.html

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Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091847Z - 092015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A fast northeast-moving convective line will continue to
pose a wind damage risk along with the potential for a brief tornado
from northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to
accelerate (40-45 kt) northeastward across northeast Alabama as of
130pm CDT. It is likely now being aided by an MCV with 50+
southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2km AGL noted per recent
Huntsville AL WSR-88D VWP data. Bowing segments aside, low-level
shear vs. line orientation has been favorable for mesovortex
evolution within the line. Primary short-term uncertainty is a
considerable downstream weakening of overall buoyancy into northwest
Georgia, and particularly with northward extent across southeast
Tennessee. However, line-preceding lapse rates are relatively steep
with temperatures in the upper 70s/near 80F. Furthermore, the
well-organized/fast-forward motion of the line itself suggests that
isolated wind damage will remain a possibility into southeast
Tennessee/northwest Georgia. That said, the overall QLCS is expected
to undergo a weakening trend over the next 1-2 hours (particularly
on the north end of the convective line).

..Guyer.. 05/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34198622 34828636 35388557 35578456 34528410 33208496
33578569 34198622
 
Even though Im not crazy about winters in the MW im glad summer doesnt come so early. Looking forward to highs near 60 the next 4 days.
 
Going to be very tropical tonight in the NC foothills already very breezy with iso lift drizzle and light rain developing per NAM after midnight. With embedded heavy rain showers and eventually a few storms tomorrow if morning rain/fog abates per NWS.
 
Getting somewhat optimistic about rain chances over the weekend. Euro keeps me from getting really excited since it holds the heavier stuff to the west. Could be a big weekend for some areas where 2-3 bands of storms may move through.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
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