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Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

metwannabe said:
I just finished tilling my garden and did not realize how dry it has gotten. Didn't turn up any moisture and long range does look dry. Wow the scrip has flipped

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I do like the look of that big mcv in south alabama right now. Its going to be moving into a fairly unstable atmosphere across Ga and SC. It might have enough juice to ride through our area around and after midnight

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SD said:
I do like the look of that big mcv in south alabama right now. Its going to be moving into a fairly unstable atmosphere across Ga and SC. It might have enough juice to ride through our area around and after midnight

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My concern is it will cut off moisture transport and leave a subsidence ridge over Metro Atlanta, limiting t'storm development (although it may bode better for folks further south and east).
 
Latest drought related stuff for those interested. Coastlines suffering pretty heavily.

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Gfs full run is pretty bleak as well. It’s typical for us to really dry up this time of year heading into summer. Hopefully we won’t stay dry for too long.

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Anticipation of summer drought is the equivalent of anticipating a cold and snowy winter. Expectations of both seem to always be always unusually high.
 
Rain Cold said:
Anticipation of summer drought is the equivalent of anticipating a cold and snowy winter. Expectations of both seem to always be always unusually high.
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No, the drought will over perform, I can promise you that, rain amounts will dry up as we get closer, just like winter storms!
 
Tarheel1 said:
No, the drought will over perform, I can promise you that, rain amounts will dry up as we get closer, just like winter storms!
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This. I feel like our summers the last few years have been perpetual 594 heat ridges and highs 93-97 with rain repeatedly in the same places with others always dry. Last year was better but even it sucked from April through mid july

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Tarheel1 said:
No, the drought will over perform, I can promise you that, rain amounts will dry up as we get closer, just like winter storms!
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I dunno. I hear hot and dry every year. We’ll see.
 
Well we got it good here in Jonesville today with over 1 inch of rainfall from several storms that came over.
 
JHS said:
Well we got it good here in Jonesville today with over 1 inch of rainfall from several storms that came over.
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A Shetley sighting! You know we are about to start seeing 120s and weeks of 0 rain!! Only thing that can save us is a tropical system!!???
 
Rain Cold said:
Anticipation of summer drought is the equivalent of anticipating a cold and snowy winter. Expectations of both seem to always be always unusually high.
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I was going to say the concern about the drought here is about as overhyped as our snowy winter outlooks.
 
GaWx said:
This is obviously going to end up being one of numerous GFS runs that way overdo SE heat, often 15-20 too hot. This is one area that the FV3 would do much better with.
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Yeah I remember last summer the same thing happened, GFS was a bit too hot and aggressive with heat waves. Showed me 100-103 in the long range and most of those days ended up 95-98 instead. No doubt it’s going to be hot but I’d shave off 5-8F from those numbers.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I was going to say the concern about the drought here is about as overhyped as our snowy winter outlooks.
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The one concern I have is the very weak Niño that may fade to neutral or Nina conditions as we head through the summer. If that happens we could see a hotter/drier summer.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah I remember last summer the same thing happened, GFS was a bit too hot and aggressive with heat waves. Showed me 100-103 in the long range and most of those days ended up 95-98 instead. No doubt it’s going to be hot but I’d shave off 5-8F from those numbers.
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The GFS overdoing SE heat on certain days and usually in pockets has been happening for a number of years. Jacksonville’s 110 (lmao) will likely end up a good 15+ too hot. Their highest on record of 104 was in June (19th) and in July.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yeah I remember last summer the same thing happened, GFS was a bit too hot and aggressive with heat waves. Showed me 100-103 in the long range and most of those days ended up 95-98 instead. No doubt it’s going to be hot but I’d shave off 5-8F from those numbers.
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shaving off 5-8 would still leave some areas over 100.
 
I thought we had a strong Niño as we head into summer?
 
NWS Blacksburg will be sending out a team to review tornado damage. No warning was issued yesterday. The public preferred to record video instead of calling it in. Luckily no one was killed.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I thought we had a strong Niño as we head into summer?
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Nobody knows. The story changes week to week, depending on who you ask. Ninos and Ninas used to be so simple. There is nothing left anywhere that is clear anymore.
 
Rain Cold said:
Nobody knows. The story changes week to week, depending on who you ask. Ninos and Ninas used to be so simple. There is nothing left anywhere that is clear anymore.
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Except the snow ?, that is truth!
This mother’s day washout, has really been a dud! The models are horrible at everything anymore!
 
My call for next winter : nuetral or positive NAO, 75% -PNA, 25% +PNA, 75% -EPO, 25% +EPO, AO the same chances as the NAO, +AAM most of next winter, and 75% dominant SER
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
My call for next winter : nuetral or positive NAO, 75% -PNA, 25% +PNA, 75% -EPO, 25% +EPO, AO the same chances as the NAO, +AAM most of next winter, and 75% dominant SER
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Jump off the cliff now, and save yourself the languishing pain, or alternatively the resulting death by 1000 cuts ... :eek:
 
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Only light rain here. Luck of the draw. More irrigation this week. Looking forward to late Mon thru Wed for walking outside!
 
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