• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern May: gateway to everyone's favorite season

I just finished tilling my garden and did not realize how dry it has gotten. Didn't turn up any moisture and long range does look dry. Wow the scrip has flipped

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
I do like the look of that big mcv in south alabama right now. Its going to be moving into a fairly unstable atmosphere across Ga and SC. It might have enough juice to ride through our area around and after midnight

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
I do like the look of that big mcv in south alabama right now. Its going to be moving into a fairly unstable atmosphere across Ga and SC. It might have enough juice to ride through our area around and after midnight

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

My concern is it will cut off moisture transport and leave a subsidence ridge over Metro Atlanta, limiting t'storm development (although it may bode better for folks further south and east).
 
Latest drought related stuff for those interested. Coastlines suffering pretty heavily.

F8DD1C14-5677-4B7A-B91F-5674B30692AA.jpegCE8E39B8-3582-4956-968A-107BED9CE3DA.jpeg

Gfs full run is pretty bleak as well. It’s typical for us to really dry up this time of year heading into summer. Hopefully we won’t stay dry for too long.

0691AAEF-5CAC-4894-9BCF-9E7346155113.png
 
Anticipation of summer drought is the equivalent of anticipating a cold and snowy winter. Expectations of both seem to always be always unusually high.
 
Anticipation of summer drought is the equivalent of anticipating a cold and snowy winter. Expectations of both seem to always be always unusually high.
No, the drought will over perform, I can promise you that, rain amounts will dry up as we get closer, just like winter storms!
 
No, the drought will over perform, I can promise you that, rain amounts will dry up as we get closer, just like winter storms!
This. I feel like our summers the last few years have been perpetual 594 heat ridges and highs 93-97 with rain repeatedly in the same places with others always dry. Last year was better but even it sucked from April through mid july

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
No, the drought will over perform, I can promise you that, rain amounts will dry up as we get closer, just like winter storms!
I dunno. I hear hot and dry every year. We’ll see.
 
Well we got it good here in Jonesville today with over 1 inch of rainfall from several storms that came over.
 
Well we got it good here in Jonesville today with over 1 inch of rainfall from several storms that came over.
A Shetley sighting! You know we are about to start seeing 120s and weeks of 0 rain!! Only thing that can save us is a tropical system!!???
 
Anticipation of summer drought is the equivalent of anticipating a cold and snowy winter. Expectations of both seem to always be always unusually high.

I was going to say the concern about the drought here is about as overhyped as our snowy winter outlooks.
 
This is obviously going to end up being one of numerous GFS runs that way overdo SE heat, often 15-20 too hot. This is one area that the FV3 would do much better with.

Yeah I remember last summer the same thing happened, GFS was a bit too hot and aggressive with heat waves. Showed me 100-103 in the long range and most of those days ended up 95-98 instead. No doubt it’s going to be hot but I’d shave off 5-8F from those numbers.
 
I was going to say the concern about the drought here is about as overhyped as our snowy winter outlooks.

The one concern I have is the very weak Niño that may fade to neutral or Nina conditions as we head through the summer. If that happens we could see a hotter/drier summer.
 
Yeah I remember last summer the same thing happened, GFS was a bit too hot and aggressive with heat waves. Showed me 100-103 in the long range and most of those days ended up 95-98 instead. No doubt it’s going to be hot but I’d shave off 5-8F from those numbers.

The GFS overdoing SE heat on certain days and usually in pockets has been happening for a number of years. Jacksonville’s 110 (lmao) will likely end up a good 15+ too hot. Their highest on record of 104 was in June (19th) and in July.
 
Yeah I remember last summer the same thing happened, GFS was a bit too hot and aggressive with heat waves. Showed me 100-103 in the long range and most of those days ended up 95-98 instead. No doubt it’s going to be hot but I’d shave off 5-8F from those numbers.
shaving off 5-8 would still leave some areas over 100.
 
I thought we had a strong Niño as we head into summer?
 
NWS Blacksburg will be sending out a team to review tornado damage. No warning was issued yesterday. The public preferred to record video instead of calling it in. Luckily no one was killed.
 
I thought we had a strong Niño as we head into summer?
Nobody knows. The story changes week to week, depending on who you ask. Ninos and Ninas used to be so simple. There is nothing left anywhere that is clear anymore.
 
Nobody knows. The story changes week to week, depending on who you ask. Ninos and Ninas used to be so simple. There is nothing left anywhere that is clear anymore.
Except the snow ?, that is truth!
This mother’s day washout, has really been a dud! The models are horrible at everything anymore!
 
My call for next winter : nuetral or positive NAO, 75% -PNA, 25% +PNA, 75% -EPO, 25% +EPO, AO the same chances as the NAO, +AAM most of next winter, and 75% dominant SER
 
My call for next winter : nuetral or positive NAO, 75% -PNA, 25% +PNA, 75% -EPO, 25% +EPO, AO the same chances as the NAO, +AAM most of next winter, and 75% dominant SER
Jump off the cliff now, and save yourself the languishing pain, or alternatively the resulting death by 1000 cuts ... :eek:
 
Last edited:
Only light rain here. Luck of the draw. More irrigation this week. Looking forward to late Mon thru Wed for walking outside!
 
Back
Top