• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Stormsfury said:
huge difference in thickness schemes in the Carolinas on GEM this run too. 540dm 200 miles further south vs 12 hours ago and a substantial west shift on the offshore low.
Click to expand...

Would this be the idea of more of a phase scenario going on the CMC? Can't see the 500mb vort maps right now.
 
Its beating a dead horse, but man, this one really is starting to remind me of 2000 when all the models busted with precipitation coming inland. different setup, but the idea of it staying offshore.. got a lot of people by surprise.

of course, modeling has gotten much better these days!

eta.model.error.png
 
Shawn said:
Its beating a dead horse, but man, this one really is starting to remind me of 2000 when all the models busted with precipitation coming inland. different setup, but the idea of it staying offshore.. got a lot of people by surprise.

of course, modeling has gotten much better these days!

View attachment 13141
Click to expand...
Would temps even cooperate enough here in central SC?
 
Robert West said:
Would temps even cooperate enough here in central SC?
Click to expand...

Well, looking at 5400dm thicknesses down to the coast, I would say, likely.

Edit, more to it though. 540 line has been used for a while to decide rain/snow .. but its not 100% by any means. Just good to see it very well in place.
 
Last edited:
Looks like Euro might be a step in the right direction again, vs 12z. At least moisture looks closer vs.
 
Doing a lot of multi tasking.. but it looks slower.. im sure 500mb looks different.. this almost seems like it's keying on a wave on the backend and putting more focus on it vs the faster, lead one. but im not 100% on that.

fsfd.png
 
Either way, as you can see.. this run creams Florida vs being quite anemic per 12z run. So definitely a step in the right direction regardless of how it got there. Here is the previous frame to above. (the next frames, nothing significant as it starts to head out to sea):

flcream.png

Here was the 12z same time:

previous.png
 
Shawn said:
Would this be the idea of more of a phase scenario going on the CMC? Can't see the 500mb vort maps right now.
Click to expand...

the fact the low is closer to the coast vs previous runs is influencing colder air down via north and NE winds...

definitely appears to be more interaction with the northern stream as well... I have been closely watching this for days now... and believe me... track record with lower and middle SC snow events have a tendency to crop up "last minute" historically
 
Webberweather53 said:
Big shift NW in tonight's EPS by like 100-125 miles in one run. Still a lot of work left to do but boy this is gonna be close if we keep this up. Most mets in eastern NC seem to be sleeping at the wheel on this one, hopefully for their sake this trend doesn't continue.

View attachment 13167
Click to expand...
Are there anyway that precipitation can even make it to the upstate if it keeps on trending nw
 
Webberweather53 said:
Hopefully people are paying attention to this, we're getting closer & closer to producing a winter storm around here late Sunday & Monday.
Just watch the 200 hPa evolution on the GFS. Uh oh.

Mods feel free to move this to the other thread.
View attachment 13174
Click to expand...
Moved!

You guys have been doing a great job staying on top of this. It will be awesome to see these trends continue if for no other reason than to see the reactions by local mets and media.
 
I doubt it. I would think the Triangle would be the furthest west that could benefit from these shifts. Just keep watching over the next 24 hours and let's see where it goes.
 
More neutral on the fv3

42eafe4479730b52fa4472c5e74f10a0.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
As of 6z, the energy associated with the s/w is officially on land and the northern stream energy is running ashore on Alaska, if we see wild jumps today is the day.
592cecc046644e261e812a768e5b87ae.jpg


I see the good trends wrt the northern stream, but the shortwave is continuing to trend away from what we want. The more west it goes, the slower it gets and the harder it will be to phase with the northern stream. I’d rather it be moving towards TX here.
Last 4 runs of FV3
130c5de2a2f22fddbf18420305657325.gif


Last 4 runs of the 3km Nam
02a3e18dc1feacba0676fdfc1fa5ad35.gif


On the other hand, the northern stream is trending west in concert and stronger as well.
If we can get greater interaction here, due to location of the positively tilted trough, we can get a system for some folks as Webber has been talking about. Also the PV is backing off a bit which I’ve noticed on a loop over the last 10 runs or so. This allows the northern stream to make its mark.
a1d736ee6015a01772f2bf9ce946d64c.gif


I’m just waiting for the model to quit trending in either direction with the energy. Once that happens, I can say I’m out, but it’s still too early to call if you’re paying attention.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
As of 6z, the energy associated with the s/w is officially on land and the northern stream energy is running ashore on Alaska, if we see wild jumps today is the day.
592cecc046644e261e812a768e5b87ae.jpg


I see the good trends wrt the northern stream, but the shortwave is continuing to trend away from what we want. The more west it goes, the slower it gets and the harder it will be to phase with the northern stream. I’d rather it be moving towards TX here.
Last 4 runs of FV3
130c5de2a2f22fddbf18420305657325.gif


Last 4 runs of the 3km Nam
02a3e18dc1feacba0676fdfc1fa5ad35.gif


On the other hand, the northern stream is trending west in concert and stronger as well.
If we can get greater interaction here, due to location of the positively tilted trough, we can get a system for some folks as Webber has been talking about. Also the PV is backing off a bit which I’ve noticed on a loop over the last 10 runs or so. This allows the northern stream to make its mark.
a1d736ee6015a01772f2bf9ce946d64c.gif


I’m just waiting for the model to quit trending in either direction with the energy. Once that happens, I can say I’m out, but it’s still too early to call if you’re paying attention.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah our good trend right now is haopebejng with the northern piece. It is able to interact with the southern quicker. But now we really would like to see that southern piece either speed up or come north. Honestly a bit of both would probably happen if it came back our way.

Today is big. Models have really sped up and dove the northern piece over the last 4 runs. We just need a tiny bit of cooperation out of the southern piece.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top