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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

That would actually be a pretty good track for deeper in the south but the wave is cutting off like I've seen on other models, so that's going to mean this will be a swing and a miss on any precip outside of Texas.

Edit: Outside of Florida of course and actually SE Georgia.
 
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Now there's a 996 just off the north Florida coast. Can't imagine there's too much precip tbh though with it being cut off, maybe I'm wrong.

Edit: 850s are icky though, yikes.
 
Lack of cold air is a killer but there is still some room for improvement. BTW...It appears to me that FV3 is indeed leading the way on this storm.


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Arcc said:
PV pressing in from the north, it can't go poleward much.
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Kind of a catch 22 for most of us. No strong tappable high pressure so we’re relying on the PV to inject our cold into the equation but the further south it is the further south our energy goes. I think we’ve found another way to lose in the south with this one
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now there's a 996 just off the north Florida coast. Can't imagine there's too much precip tbh though with it being cut off, maybe I'm wrong.

Edit: 850s are icky though, yikes.
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There is precip concentrated around the low as you’re suspecting with lots in FL and a moderate amount along and just inland the SE coast. Not nearly cold enough for wintry.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Kind of a catch 22 for most of us. No strong twppable high pressure so we’re relying on the PV to inject our cold into the equation but the further south it is the further south our energy goes. I think we’ve found another way to lose in the south with this one
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Three ways to lose here.

1: Full early phase and system amps.
2: System gets crushed by PV and/suppressed
3: S/W slows down and gets in between waves, second s/w dives south and pushes up ridges.
 
If the northern stream interacts just a bit, it will come north, and the 850s will respond too.

Right now, it’s being left alone by the northern stream and the 850s, and subsequently the surface temps, are bleeding out.
 
RollTide18 said:
What do we need to get the cold air?
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An Arctic high to the north feeding into it. That’s lacking here. On the 0Z, there was a 1032 Arctic high feeding cold air, which allowed it to be cold enough for big AL snow.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The thing we need to supply our cold air with this system is also the thing causing it to develop in the Bahamas. It really is incredible
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However I'm now looking at the 2/12/10 reanalysis maps again and I'm not sure there's really much of a high pressure, my guess is, the cold airmass is fresher with it (what I alluded to with Upstate SC possibly being okay with the later phase with this). It'd help if a weak one appeared and honestly that track is actually good for deeper in the south if you can have a fresh cold airmass, a weak HP, and the system doesn't cut off.
 
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