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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Its sad, that we basically can't trust any model outside of 3 days. Even then it is sketchy.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Fire up the thread! Wouldn’t a solution where 850’s and colder surface temps are pulled south (even if it’s still rain for most) bode well down the road and setup for our next fantasy chase at day 8?
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No thread should be made for a possible "event" 7 plus days away. I'm starting to have my doubts that storm during the 1/26 - 1/28 will give the southeast a winter storm. I'm pretty sure the OP models would have a good handle on it by now if there was going be one. I say that because, the 1/26 - 1/28 is in the 7 day window. There's nothing that inclusive during the 1/26 - 1/28 IMO. It looked good at first, but now not so much.
 
WxWatch said:
No thread should be made for a possible "event" 7 plus days away. I'm starting to have my doubts that storm during the 1/26 - 1/28 will give the southeast a winter storm. I'm pretty sure the OP models would have a good handle on it by now if there was going be one. I say that because, the 1/26 - 1/28 is in the 7 day window. There's nothing that inclusive during the 1/26 - 1/28 IMO. It looked good at first, but now not so much.
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Agree, been a viewer of this site and talkweather days for over 7years. Seems everytime a thread is open outside 5 days, next day storm is gone.
 
You can see pretty clearly here on the GEFS there are THREE main camps it is split up into. This tells me there are some more big changes ahead. One in GA, one off the coast of FL/Bahamas and one off the NC coast.
1548098103151.png
 
ATLwxfan said:
Yeah threads get started on excitement from repeated runs so it’s hard to avoid. Models have been exceedingly good at dangling carrots and ultimately leading to a myriad of different unfavorable solutions.

Not saying this event can’t improve because it can.


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Yes, there's still time for it to improve. But, that time is closing in fast. If nothing improves within the next 24 to 48 hours, there won't be a winter storm during the
1/26 - 1/28 window.
 
WxWatch said:
Yes, there's still time for it to improve. But, that time is closing in fast. If nothing improves within the next 24 to 48 hours, there won't be a winter storm during the
1/26 - 1/28 window.
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Closing fast? Its still 6-7 days away? Ive seen storms shift 200+ miles in 24 hours. We have plenty of time.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Closing fast? Its still 6-7 days away? Ive seen storms shift 200+ miles in 24 hours. We have plenty of time.
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Yep.

Based off that map of the GEFS I honestly don't think the GFS or it's ensembles have a clue at all (seriously wish they'd just kill the GFS, it's gotten ridiculous). This storm still has a chance but there's not going to be a solution that satisfies everybody here with how things seem.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Closing fast? Its still 6-7 days away? Ive seen storms shift 200+ miles in 24 hours. We have plenty of time.
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That might be true as far as the track of the storm but maybe more so for climo favorable areas. ATL and BHM seem to be more prone to unfavorable trends in crunch time. I’m not saying never but it’s rare.


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Snowflowxxl said:
Closing fast? Its still 6-7 days away? Ive seen storms shift 200+ miles in 24 hours. We have plenty of time.
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It may shift further north, but propably not that much. I doubt it will trend much further northward due to the low that is way north. The trailing front from that low sweeps everything with it. There maybe light snow showers along that front.
 
WxWatch said:
It may shift further north, but propably not that much. I doubt it will trend much further northward due to the low that is way north. The trailing front from that low sweeps everything with it. There maybe light snow showers along that front.
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Why not ??? It just shift 500 miles south in one run.

Now I don’t see a 24 hour shift of 200 miles. It could shift by 50-75 miles.
 
12z eps
e96dd51ae7aec3a7d63fc770cc26d7f3.jpg



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ForsythSnow said:
Seeing the ensembles flip as much as the op models, I'm sure they're as clueless as we are on how this could play out. No consistency at all. I say we just watch the wheel spin and wait and see what we see more.
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The GEFS had been pretty consistent until today. Everyone was saying watch the GEFS and don't worry about the ops. Now they are both all over the place. Seems when we get about 5 days out this happens with the models for some reason, and we have ended up still getting a good storm. I can't help but think about the Christmas 2010 storm and how it went way south like the models are doing now only to come back and nail NC around 72 hours out.
 
WxWatch said:
It may shift further north, but propably not that much. I doubt it will trend much further northward due to the low that is way north. The trailing front from that low sweeps everything with it. There maybe light snow showers along that front.
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The models are notorious for giving too much push with the northern stream at this range which is why we end in heartbreak most of the time. I wouldn't try to guess too much just yet.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The GEFS had been pretty consistent until today. Everyone was saying watch the GEFS and don't worry about the ops. Now they are both all over the place. Seems when we get about 5 days out this happens with the models for some reason, and we have ended up still getting a good storm. I can't help but think about the Christmas 2010 storm and how it went way south like the models are doing now only to come back and nail NC around 72 hours out.
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I would definitely love for something like this to take place and honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we see the OP runs adjust back north. The key for snow/qpf is going to be the amount of phasing and dynamics we have to work with. The snowy FV3 00z run last night had a strong storm with some good dynamics on the NW side. A weaker one, even if it moves up the coast, might not have enough dynamics to cool things down. Very complex setup for sure.
 
Great tweet by Allan. The eps does not stand behind the EURO at all.



When the ensembles do not stand behind the OP models it usually means there is plenty of room for OP models to move.

GEFS has ALL possibilities still on the table. Nothing has yet been decided.

Storm is in a perfect spot for us still.

We take this look to the bank every. Single. Day.
 
It is largely about having an Arctic high in the right position with the right timing to work in tandem with it just as the 0Z Euro had (big AL snows especially) and just as the 12Z Euro has on 1/30-31 (2nd storm producing historic heavy snowfall in much of SW GA and lots of snow other areas).
 
1300m said:
The 12z FV3 was a notable adjustment back in the direction we want - more of the PV injected back into the trough and you can clearly see it in the 850s as well. This is only a tick away from that 06z run from 1/20 that produced for many.

View attachment 12384

View attachment 12385
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I'm still concerned looking at the EPS that this joker could still over amp and mess us up that way.
 
Still to far south. Also looks weaker but it’s cold enough at least


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