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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

I let myself get sucked into those 3-5 inch totals and I knew better. I'm still a happy camper with what the 12z gfs shows as it is March 9th after all. Plus with two days left there's plenty of time for the heaviest precipitation to shift back north a little.


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olhausen said:
I let myself get sucked into those 3-5 inch totals and I knew better. I'm still a happy camper with what the 12z gfs shows as it is March 9th after all. Plus with two days left there's plenty of time for the heaviest precipitation to shift back north a little.


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You might wanna change your avatar ;)
 
Gefs
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Rofl, GEFS looks like EPS from 2 days ago with the Southern amounts.
 
olhausen said:
I let myself get sucked into those 3-5 inch totals and I knew better. I'm still a happy camper with what the 12z gfs shows as it is March 9th after all. Plus with two days left there's plenty of time for the heaviest precipitation to shift back north a little.


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Or south


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UK is not a good run for the eastern half of NC. It's right in line with the CMC. I feel this one slipping away slowly. Can't believe that we have all this cold air to work with in the NE this time and still may have to deal with a stinking Miller A warm nose. Should have known better than to get excited this early.
 
Storm5 said:
God if the northern stream on CMC was faster Georgia and the Carolinas would have been destroyed


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Probably would be unprecedented for a change like that to happen this close to the event, right?


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I really don't think there's going to be much of a north trend this time. We may see somewhat of an adjustment north, but not a big one. It's already fairly late in the game so I bet we're 50-100 miles in either direction of the solution.

I think if you're in Tennessee, you're in a good spot to see snow and it's just a matter of how much. It could end up just being token flakes in south Tennessee if there is an adjustment north. North Carolina, it depends.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Probably would be unprecedented for a change like that to happen this close to the event, right?


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Probably isn't likely to happen this time but I remember with the Christmas 2010 snowstorm, the phase or no phase possibility was going to cause a big change in the solution. Where I was at on Christmas (LaFayette, GA) was supposed to just get an inch of snow as they didn't know the phase was actually going to happen. We saw that "inch" of snow by 9 AM that morning. Ended up with 4 inches. The phase happened.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I really don't think there's going to be much of a north trend this time. We may see somewhat of an adjustment north, but not a big one. It's already fairly late in the game so I bet we're 50-100 miles in either direction of the solution.

I think if you're in Tennessee, you're in a good spot to see snow and it's just a matter of how much. It could end up just being token flakes in south Tennessee if there is an adjustment north. North Carolina, it depends.
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You think the NC mountains are looking good ?
 
Lol now the gefs has me almost back in the 6" mean over the next 10 days from multiple systems.....
 
metwannabe said:
Because the heavy snow threat doesn't extend further east..... nothing really to support anything other than light event east of apps, right now
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Nothing really supports a heavy snow threat anywhere unless your in the mountains . Looks like a light event for much of Tennessee


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Storm5 said:
Nothing really supports a heavy snow threat anywhere unless your in the mountains . Looks like a light event for much of Tennessee


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I guess that means most likely you're not going to Nashville.
 
And before you people in the Midlands get excited with that Euro map, it's snowfall. not snow accumulation or depth. Likely rain/snow mix at best.
 
Euro is trying for a CMC like solution for next week but it's MUCH weaker


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