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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
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OMG

A lot of good members for north ga. Still doubtful but it's fun to watch this thing keep coming our way.
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Ha! You know the best spot in GA. I can stare at Blood Mtn from my front porch.
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Lucky you! I love that place. Done a lot of snow hiking in there (especially between Suches and Vogel and around Windfield in particular - always seems to snow there when everywhere else is rain) and also on up to Tray Mtn.
 
There may be some interesting afternoon discos from the National Weather Service offices. Then again, they may poo-poo the entire scenario.
 
As the strong March sun is beating down right now with temps in the 60s, its just hard to imagine that we could get snow in just a few days.
 
What are y'all thoughts for Columbia SC? It would be nice to see some type of wintry wx before the winter over. Can someone explain what they think could play out for Columbia SC(Midlands)?
 
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Meteorologist1999 said:
What are y'all thoughts for Columbia SC? It would be nice to see some type of wintry wx before the winter over. Can someone explain what they think could play out for Columbia SC(Midlands)?
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Well, EPS mean is skewed by a few big members, but increasingly it's getting better. The GEFS is not as excited, but that model sucks.

I still think the highest chance as we stand is a line from Rock Hill, North. GSP of course, Chesterfield. Far Northern Midlands basically. If you look at the latest EPS mean, where the blue color in Northern SC is, is my thinking.

BUT with this new EPS run, I now count 30 members versus 15 on the last 00z run from the small quality maps above with snow in or right around the Central Midlands.
 
Shawn said:
Well, EPS mean is skewed by a few big members, but increasingly it's getting better. The GEFS is not as excited, but that model sucks.

I still think the highest chance as we stand is a line from Rock Hill, North. GSP of course, Chesterfield. Far Northern Midlands basically. If you look at the latest EPS mean, where the blue color in Northern SC is, is my thinking.

BUT with this new EPS run, I now count 30 members versus 15 on the last 00z run from the small quality maps above with snow in or right around the Central Midlands.
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I hope the EPS verifies for us like it did for the ice storm.
 
JtSmarts said:
I hope the EPS verifies for us like it did for the ice storm.
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Always rely on the EPS versus other modeling. I know some disagree, but down here it really hasn't let me down ever. You know those marginal events that were boring? Like the last event where we got a quick dusting? Euro EPS showed that dusting and nothing else while the OP GFS and it's ensembles were all over a much bigger 4-6 inch event for the longest time.

One thing to keep in mind is that the Euro and EPS maps have been fixed on the Weatherbell source to not show zr and sleet as snow anymore. So that eps "snow mean" is actually supposed to be snowfall. Add in the mixing along with some sleet (ZR not too sure about in March around here, doubtful) and I'll take the look!

Edit:
I should note that if you remove the bigger members, you're still looking at around half an inch to an inch on the mean through the Central Midlands.
 
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