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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
Yeah the pivotal maps are much more realistic


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That's fine. I'll take 3 inches in March. Would be more than we got the last storm in January.
 
Here's the 12z...
Probably even more realistic, although some of the snow in SE NC is likely mixed w/ rain or sleet and the ratios are lower than 10:1 but you get the idea. An inch or two of snow &/or snow-sleet with a few isolated areas in eastern NC reaching 3" or so.
snod.us_ma.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Which pivotal map ? The one you posted looks much better than the one shawn posted.
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The one i posted shows melting/accumulation/mixing. The second one is snowfall at a 10:1 ratio.
 
While you shouldn't focus on the totals at your exact location, in general I think the NWS Raleigh are offering a pretty good upper bound estimate for this storm in NC. 3-5" may be the ceiling w/ this event.
SnowAmt90Prcntl.png
 
12z NAM total run this map does NOT take melting into consideration this is total snow output from the model totals would not be this high
e0fb7716c7c7eb938d1d8ec31801013d.jpg



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Shawn said:
That PARA NAM is mostly mixed crap in SC outisde the far northern tier and gsp area.
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So Shawn do you think Columbia have a chance to see some snow 12z Nam have trended South with the Low Pressure? I think their is a good chance we could!!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
So Shawn do you think Columbia have a chance to see some snow 12z Nam have trended South with the Low Pressure? I think their is a good chance we could!!
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Temps suck tbh. I still like the Rock Hill area being the cut off for actual snow. Maybe Laurens, POSSIBLY Northern Newberry.
 
Shawn said:
Temps suck tbh. I still like the Rock Hill area being the cut off for actual snow. Maybe Laurens, POSSIBLY Northern Newberry.
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If that High Pressure builds in quicker and the wedge is always underdone on models so you never know, March can throw in some surprises.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
If that High Pressure builds in quicker and the wedge is always underdone on models so you never know, March can throw in some surprises.
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The low placement is really going to screw us in the long run. The 850s will likely rise and end up giving us a chilly rain or sleet when all is said and done. I'm awaiting the 12z GFS/GEFS and Euro still, but I just can't get on board this far South at this point. I'd like to see a "big hit" over the Midlands to get excited that has GEFS support. It's lacking, and even the EPS for the CAE area last night went from an okay event to basically flurries at best.
 
I for one think this sucks. I don't want cold rain or snow. It is spring now. But as usual we will get the worst of it. Being cold rain. The freaking worst. I say it should all miss us.
 
Flo said:
I for one think this sucks. I don't want cold rain or snow. It is spring now. But as usual we will get the worst of it. Being cold rain. The freaking worst. I say it should all miss us.
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Lol. It's still winter according to the calendar.
 
And here comes the GFS with JUST enough of cold to make me look like an idiot from my last couple posts. Surface temps still suck though.
 
Possibly an okay event for TN, N AL, N. GA, Upstate SC, NC. No snow/temp maps yet.
 
Yes, a good hit for Northern SC this run glancing at 2m temps + 850. Maps coming out soon.
 
The snow in CAE proper is a mix of rain, snow then to sleet. then back to rain.

I'd feel good if I was around Northern Newberry, GSP, Laurens, Rock Hill, over towards Florence although mixing issues there.
 
A place like highlands and cashiers, nc might do well with this storm. Im thinking the only sure way to see decent snow with this one is to be in western nc or eastern tn.
 
The ridge in the west seemed to be a bit further west this run. The energy dropped down slightly further west resulting in the delay of precip by about an hour or two.
 
Here's the snow depth at hr 78. Seems to be about right. Wasn't the Canadian model the first to show something like this days ago?
snod.us_ma.png
 
HEre is a horrible map based on a quick analysis that sets up the areas that see a sleet/rn+snow mix or predominantly snow.

Don't make fun, I'm on a phone!

gfs_asnow_seus_14.png
 
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