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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

FFC is seeing it.....

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

extended period starting to get a little more
interesting...particularly if you were missing winter.
Still on track to be impacted by 3 main systems across the CWFA.

Friday starts with a fairly broad NW flow aloft across the eastern
half of the country and an approaching cold front associated with
a strong arctic high...probably the strongest the US has seen
since early Jan. Models in general agreement of a 1050 sfc
pressurebridging into the northern plains and building SE on
Friday. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the front will be
possible given some instability and modest 6.5 deg C/km mid level
lapse rates early on Friday NW expanding SE into the afternoon.
Better instability exists across the southern tier of counties on
Friday so better chances of thunder increases by Friday afternoon
CSG to MCN and points south. High res models going out to 48 hours
are hinting at some organization along and ahead of the
front...but will need to see how things play out with general
timing. Behind the front...cooler and drier air will be spilling
in during the day on Friday. near Freezing or sub freezing temps
will be possible Saturday morning behind the front particularly
along and north of I85/I20.

Saturday into Sunday...a stronger piece of energy moving through
the NW flow approaches late Saturday afternoon through Sunday. The
main system is far enough south and west to tap gulf moisture to
set up an isentropic lift situation beginning as early as Saturday
afternoon across the north. ECM and GFS have come into better
agreement with a wetter soln than what was showing on previous
runs. While most of the area will see a very cold overrunning
rain, the period in question appears to be 06z sunday through 12
to 15z sunday across the northern and NW mountains...when model
profiles and partial thicknesses are cold enough to support a
rain-snow mix. Was waiting to see the ECMWF soln come in for
agreement since the GFS had shown this scenario on the 06z run and
again on the 12z run. Not totally confident yet on this
scenario...but ecmwf and gfs 850 temps would support it. Would not
expect much if any accum given warmer surface temps and warmer
ground temps. Have introduced Rain Snow mix in the grids for the
mountains so forecasts will reflect this update during the
overnight period Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday... Sunday system exits likely leaving
behind a snow pack across TN and NC and a pseudo-wedge building
in from the NE into NE GA on Monday. GFS and ECM starting to come
into line with a large scale trof and deep low setting up by Tue
over the great lakes. On the back side...a second and colder
arctic high builds into the central and eastern US. Both models
are moisture starved however...strong NW flow and wrap around
suggest potential for NW flow snow showers across the mountains on
Tue. For now..have chance rain in the forecast..but will need to
watch the strength and depth of the low over great lakes for snow
potential across the north at the end the period.
Regardless...appears the pattern is changing to give us a late
taste of winter or at least cold temps across the SE.
 
Here is the "control run" that the EPS members were based off of. (control run is a lower resolution version of the operational Euro run that comes out earlier):

eps_snow_c_se_31.png
 
Ummm am I missing something with Rah NWS AFD?? Talk about keeping it low key sheesh...
A lead cold front, propelled by a strong shortwave trough forecast
to migrate across the Great Lakes and Northeast, will cross central
NC during the day Fri - late morning to midday NW Piedmont to mid-
afternoon over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. A preceding mid
level moist axis accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough,
and associated weakening band of showers with time and Ewd extent as
it moves into an increasingly dry and stable regime E of the
Appalachians, may support a few sprinkles or light showers over the
Piedmont early Fri. Then, very weak instability on the order of a
couple of hundred J/kg or less, but with weak moisture convergence
along the surface front, may prove sufficient for a couple of
shallow/light showers along the passing frontal zone as it settles
through the Coastal Plain and Sandhills coincident with (near) peak
diurnal heating. It will otherwise be warm --mid 60s to mid 70s with
NW downslope flow likely to help offset CAA-- and breezy both ahead
of and behind the front. The noticeably colder air will arrive Fri
night, with temperatures expected to fall into the 30s by Fri
morning.

That's it?? Lol
 
metwannabe said:
Ummm am I missing something with Rah NWS AFD?? Talk about keeping it low key sheesh...

That's it?? Lol
Click to expand...

I saw that...keeping closed lipped...or they will add to it later...it just looks incomplete to me if the long term is supposed to go to Wednesday and the last day they talk about is Friday???
 
packfan98 said:
I saw that...keeping closed lipped...or they will add to it later...it just looks incomplete to me if the long term is supposed to go to Wednesday and the last day they talk about if Friday???
Click to expand...
Yeah I was thinking the same thing, wonder if they will add to it but can't recall them just abruptly stopping several days short like that
 
KCAE:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
246 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main issues during the medium-range period are a possible
rain and snow mix in the north section Saturday night and Sunday
morning and near freezing temperatures.

Much colder air will be directed into the forecast area over the
weekend associated with strong pressure ridging into the area
from central Canada. The models show low pressure tracking along
the Gulf Coast to along the Southeast Coast Sunday. Model
forecast soundings indicate a rain and snow mix in the north
section late Saturday night and Sunday morning. There has not
been run-to-run consistency in the track of low pressure and
placement of moisture but both the GFS and ECMWF have trended
colder. We used the top-down method with the ECMWF and
forecasted a rain and snow mix in the extreme north part of the
forecast area late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
Click to expand...
 
packfan98 said:
I saw that...keeping closed lipped...or they will add to it later...it just looks incomplete to me if the long term is supposed to go to Wednesday and the last day they talk about is Friday???
Click to expand...
Maybe they are worried that saying it will snow is like saying the aliens are invading lol. It's March and nobody is prepared for a snowstorm right now and the public will go mad if they say snow.
 
WOW, at the EPS. Looks as if alot of members on here will be happy. This is by far a better setup then January storm
 
metwannabe said:
Ummm am I missing something with Rah NWS AFD?? Talk about keeping it low key sheesh...
A lead cold front, propelled by a strong shortwave trough forecast
to migrate across the Great Lakes and Northeast, will cross central
NC during the day Fri - late morning to midday NW Piedmont to mid-
afternoon over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. A preceding mid
level moist axis accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough,
and associated weakening band of showers with time and Ewd extent as
it moves into an increasingly dry and stable regime E of the
Appalachians, may support a few sprinkles or light showers over the
Piedmont early Fri. Then, very weak instability on the order of a
couple of hundred J/kg or less, but with weak moisture convergence
along the surface front, may prove sufficient for a couple of
shallow/light showers along the passing frontal zone as it settles
through the Coastal Plain and Sandhills coincident with (near) peak
diurnal heating. It will otherwise be warm --mid 60s to mid 70s with
NW downslope flow likely to help offset CAA-- and breezy both ahead
of and behind the front. The noticeably colder air will arrive Fri
night, with temperatures expected to fall into the 30s by Fri
morning.

That's it?? Lol
Click to expand...

Hahaahah cliffhanger


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The GEFS and EPS probability maps are outstanding for >=1" snow it has widespread 60-70% probabilities for much of NC, 80% probabilities for central TN and 90% for E TN and the mountains. Can't post the maps at this time but they look great FWIW.
 
metwannabe said:
Right?! C'mon give us something man, anything.... Lol. Until next time.......
Click to expand...
I will write it.....while the models continue to trend southward for the system on Sunday we expect a NW in the models soon with a maxima of wintry precipitation from Roxboro to Roanoke Rapids where 4-6 inches of snow could fall. South of there along the I40 corridor expect rain mixed with or changing to snow at times with little to no accumulations. South of this area toward Fayetteville expect all rain.
 
Jon said:
The GEFS and EPS probability maps are outstanding for >=1" snow it has widespread 60-70% probabilities for much of NC, 80% probabilities for central TN and 90% for E TN and the mountains. Can't post the maps at this time but they look great FWIW.
Click to expand...

Very nice for parts of the NC/TN mountains. Also, in TN, the probabilities are higher, just 24 hourly maps:

eps_snow24_1_nc_19.png
 
Jon said:
The GEFS and EPS probability maps are outstanding for >=1" snow it has widespread 60-70% probabilities for much of NC, 80% probabilities for central TN and 90% for E TN and the mountains. Can't post the maps at this time but they look great FWIW.
Click to expand...

Eps 1 inch probabilities
b38e2653cf29c260c36ec78ec60ec678.jpg


EPs 3 inch probabilities
1958f40b5c136447a2eac5036d58ac2c.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CPC has heavy snow in the hazards outlook:
  • Heavy snow across portions of the Southern Appalachians, the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Mar 11-Mar 12.
17218298_815586755262294_8952593335263374851_o.png
 
Those probability maps look great. Brad P. uses them sometimes. I bet he won't post this one though since it's showing over 50% chance of at least an inch of snow.
 
Geeze. Looks like the NAM is going to place the low over northern Alabama. Rain in TN?
 
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