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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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Brick Tamland
Guest
You also don't have to cry red alert over one bad run just a couple of hours ago versus all the positive things people have noted yesterday and even today. That is the post I was referring to. Not from you, but from someone else.
Just saying, if you go back to this time 48 hours ago until now and read the January thread, things were 90% positive, and people were excited about how the pattern looked and the models were progressing. Then we have one hiccup and people are like OH NO! WE'RE DOOMED!
I just think you have to take a look at the picture as a whole and compare things the last 48 hours before getting worried about it going bad now.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Nobody is saying "OH NO WE ARE DOOMED" it's just a potential thing to consider
"ALEET" just means be wary in a light hearted, humorous kind of way because I'd rather have at least seen a similarly cold run and we have seen many false cold alarms. It doesn't mean it will be right. If it is right, it is just weather anyway. Not the end of the world. This is supposed to be fun to follow, whether or not a particular run shows what you want to see. This is just a hobby. Hobbies are fun, right? Come on, Brick, go back to the good posts that you've been making recently.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Literally nobody is saying the sky is falling haha. 1 or 2 posts of "Hey check this out [insert model image here that suggests a not so good change] does not mean we have entered Hell. They're just bringing attention to potential issues. Relax.
packfan98
Moderator
OK. You make these kind of posts every time the models take a turn for the worse. You've now cluttered up this thread and the January thread. People are going to post what they want. Don't try to moderate them or pick a fight with someone for their posts. Take a break and come back when we have a good model run and you can celebrate with us. Log out after a bad model run if the posts are bothering you that much.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
This is the Whamby thread. Why is it that you go away for weeks at a time and then come back criticizing everyone? This thread is for whining at the pattern, if you want. If you don't like it, don't read it. If there's whining in the January thread, let us know and we'll delete it.
Even if some were freaking out, it's unwise to not at least understand why they may be frightened due to the fact that a bad run verifying is a fairly more common occurrence here than not. It's ok for ppl to be uneasy g!
Lot of people getting worked up entirely to much. Let's actually enjoy these chances coming up in the medium to long range before we worry about the potential switch back to a crappy pattern. Remember, a week ago we were just trying to reel in this cold pattern that we pretty much now know is probably going to happen. Well, now that we know it's about to get cold, we are trying to look past that. We've found what we have been looking for, we have a several day period next week that is favorable for cold and or wintry weather. Let's just zero in on that and worry about the next crappy pattern when we know when this pattern coming up is not going to pan out.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
We need a thread to whine about the whiners.
Well to be fair the teleconnections have never matched a sustained cold pattern. MJO stalling in 7 and trying to loop. +AO, +NAO and an EPO that's failed to go negative all year. The brutal cold the GEFS was showing was based on a phantom -EPO.
Not to mention I don't recall any pro going all in on sustained cold except JB. And anyone who's been here any length of time knows not to pay him any attention.
We've been in such a bad pattern that anything looked great. But seeing all the cold being modeled when the teles didn't really support that was a red flag to me all along. You're right it could be a blip. But looks to me like models correcting to what it should have been all along. Which is a pattern change for sure. And not a shutout pattern, but not a great pants explosion pattern either.
Who is actually whining in the Jan thread?
Whining: "complaining in a feeble or petulant way"
Nobody
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I was just saying in general. So those that want to complain about the complainers can complain.
Storm5
Member
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Brick Tamland
Guest
So, what does everyone consider to be a trend? I would say give something at least 24 hours one way or the other for it to be a positive or negative trend. If the models show something going the same way, progressing the same, positive or negative for 24 straight hours, then I would consider that a true trend in one direction versus the other.
the very definition of insanity
24 hrs is a trend. But today's 12z EPS in my opinion matches what the teles show. A slightly positive PNA is the only tele in our favor. Which screams average temps with occasional cold shots like next week. So I'd like to know where all that deep sustained cold was coming from? Especially with the coldest anomalies on the other side of the pole.
Just be happy that the warm gully washers are ending and we are turning cooler. Once we cool off then watch for trends.
Friday is day one of the new pattern.
Avalanche
Member
Urgh, figures. Heaven forbid some random wild horses on a remote island off the NC coast dont get their snow.
If a scenario like this was forecasted 12 hours beforehand I might get the urge to drive to my father in laws beach cottage in KDH..the only problem is he doesn’t have heat..so that could be a minor issue
Avalanche
Member
Man if that happens im driving my jeep down that way. I say go for it. Fix yourself a coffee and enjoy the ride!!
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@Snowless & Grumpy welcome aboard sir
You said you've read all post since Sunday, which I seriously doubt, because if you had you would've read (from some valuable posters) how the EPS, while colder, hasn't been as cold as the GEFS for one and was not showing the -EPO that the GEFS was to get us where we need to be. There have been other details mentioned by those posters too that were "concerning", the lack of blocking, etc and how, again while things were looking better, we also were close to things not working out. I'm not smart enough to explain it all but I've read enough and seen enough that I know the 12z eps is bearing truth to some of those concerns. Let me put it like this.... ever watch a favorite sports team, I'll say the Panthers, and they are moving the ball up and down the field but just can't get it in the end zone, FG after FG. They have a 9 point lead and "appear" to be dominating but you have the gut feeling, if one little thing goes the other teams way, it's over and sure enough, a fumble, a 3 and out, 2 quick scores and all of a sudden what looked so promising is now a big fat L. Well that can be this winter
Also, stop stirring the pot.. it's unhealthy and tiresome
Thank you sir!!
Yep. It might be over. There is a clear way here for this to go into 100% blowhard territory and it's the fat kid on the teeter totter
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
10 Years ago when I started tracking, I didn’t know much but one thing I do remember is everyone wanted the energy to dig across the middle of the country and I think that’s what we’re going to need to happen for the day 8-10 storm. Dig baby dig. I feel like we will get there for parts of the Carolinas. Maybe
SnowNiner
Member
I do agree with them that the EPO holds the key. I'm not sure how we're actually going to get real cold into the SE without it. Over the pole and the Atlantic side is never going to help us. It's been that way for like 5 years straight now. We know the GEFS lies when it shows the -EPO. I was hoping in the long range the EPS would come around. Well it came way around, lol.
We may actually be having too much STJ...it may be prohibiting the building of a nice western ridge. I don't know but it's always something. But my expectations are pretty much shot if the EPS doesn't bounce back.
NoSnowATL
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This is a good example, there is one maybe two members out of 50 that has the traditional -PNA signal with the ridge in the east. A few that do show troughing out west, have the whole US in a trough.
It's a misleading picture since its height change not anomaly
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I've recovered from the headache I had today for some reason (unrelated to y'all or the weather) and see that someone tried to stir the pot here earlier since the model analysis wasn't what they wanted to hear.
Better score with this next week as there's no telling what happens after that.
Better score with this next week as there's no telling what happens after that.
RNK Getting on board for late week. Maybe I'll get lucky and see something wintry!
FRIDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
SATURDAY
Freezing rain likely. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
SATURDAY
Freezing rain likely. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Rain in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Nerman
Member
Can someone tell us what it would take to get this storm in Texas to continue moving East through the southern states rather than suppressed into the Gulf? I'd like to know what to look for and if there is even a chance. TIA
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