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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Nerman said:
I have a general question about getting snow in the Atlanta area. Does the 850 Air Temp have to be freezing (32F)? I'm trying to better understand the conditions required when looking at the longer range models. Any other factors I need to take into consideration like 2M temps, dew points, 500mb temps?

Thanks in advance!
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Unfortunately, it is all relative. Generally, the 850 needs to be at or below freezing and is the more reliable way to determine p-type. I've seen flurries at 44 degrees to 2M isn't as important unless accumulations are involved. 2017 had temps at or above 32 all day with 850s barely at freezing but rates overcame everything and we wound up with 12".
 
Ugly GFS run. Going 19 days now without a freeze at my location in Central SC and it looks to potentially get to 30 days. As warm as last Winter was, we never had more than a 2 week period without a freeze down here. Cold looks pushed back again. It'll change about 78 times, but this is extremely frustrating that we can't get any sort of consistency in the models and it's the year 2020. I swear, and I am probably wrong, but it seems like the models were better a couple years ago than they are now.

Then again, maybe I am just looking way to hard for cold in the long range and just pissed off that we can't get it. This delayed crap is getting old.
 
Robert West said:
Ugly GFS run. Going 19 days now without a freeze at my location in Central SC and it looks to potentially get to 30 days. As warm as last Winter was, we never had more than a 2 week period without a freeze down here. Cold looks pushed back again. It'll change about 78 times, but this is extremely frustrating that we can't get any sort of consistency in the models and it's the year 2020. I swear, and I am probably wrong, but it seems like the models were better a couple years ago than they are now.

Then again, maybe I am just looking way to hard for cold in the long range and just pissed off that we can't get it. This delayed crap is getting old.
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There’s been good consistency on betting on the models overall being too cold (cold bias) and winning those bets.
 
Robert West said:
Ugly GFS run. Going 19 days now without a freeze at my location in Central SC and it looks to potentially get to 30 days. As warm as last Winter was, we never had more than a 2 week period without a freeze down here. Cold looks pushed back again. It'll change about 78 times, but this is extremely frustrating that we can't get any sort of consistency in the models and it's the year 2020. I swear, and I am probably wrong, but it seems like the models were better a couple years ago than they are now.

Then again, maybe I am just looking way to hard for cold in the long range and just pissed off that we can't get it. This delayed crap is getting old.
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In my opinion don't even bother to look at ANY operational model. And don't even bother to look at ensembles less than 10 days out. It's warm, it's wet for the next 10 days. We're in lights out mode until the end of model guidance where things possibly could maybe change. Pattern tracking changing mode for sure.
 
SnowNiner said:
In my opinion don't even bother to look at ANY operational model. And don't even bother to look at ensembles less than 10 days out. It's warm, it's wet for the next 10 days. We're in lights out mode until the end of model guidance where things possibly could maybe change. Pattern tracking changing mode for sure.
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I understand what youre saying, but I think most people look at the operational models. I mean it's sorta there and easy to look at. I can't speak for anyone else, but I am willing to bet, even when people know not to buy stock in them, that most look at them. I don't take it serious, but I do look for consistency that matches ensembles.

But for sure, and that's what I am looking for, I am not looking for some 200 + hour out winter storm. Just something consistent that signifies a better pattern.
 
GaWx said:
There’s been good consistency on betting on the models overall being too cold (cold bias) and winning those bets.
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I can agree there. I know the bias and everything, just looking for hope
 
metwannabe said:
You ever have one of those days, where you show up to work and you have so much to do, it's overwhelming, to the point you don't even know where to start...... so you just don't do any of it? Ugh 2 hours in, that's how this morning has been
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That's also what many of us did when a winter storm was on the horizon re: not doing any of the work.

That was me at work leading up to the February 2010, January 2011 and both the late January and mid February 2014 storms, respectively.

Tabs opened up to three different sites and continued to hit "refresh." Ahhhhh.... ?
 
Haven’t seen Southeast Ridge post lately? Wonder what happened?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, winter has pretty much sucked so far. Nothing but warm up, rain, dry out, get cold, repeat. Can't even enjoy the warm days because of all the rain. And the long range forecast on TWC shows a chance of rain for 11 straight days starting next week.
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TWC for long range? Would be interesting to see how many times it changes once the MJO becomes favorable.
 
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