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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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BirdManDoomW said:
Well a lot of our winter storms occur after dry cold. Not usually after hot and wet. Being too wet is part of the problem IMO.
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I would respectfully disagree.. I would say we’re probably warm and wet and all that means is we are getting an active storm track .. to get something really beneficial and to get a large storm you need a good storm track like we’ve had thus far along with cold air either already being in place or coming down and meeting the storm track half way .. those create our big dogs we just haven’t seen the big dogs a lot recently so I think we forget how we get them
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Interesting time frame, there will still likely be a SER, but the Sfc will likely be cool during this time from artic high pressure, certainly supports icy conditions with shallow cold air somewhere
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Fro, I despise Miller B’s...they never work out here 0A7E6426-3FD4-463F-AF16-89F795EC8008.jpeg
 
Really liking that timeframe coming up, Im actually feeling it this time lol that’s why I’m posting back to back about it
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Fro, I despise Miller B’s...they never work out here View attachment 30018
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Hard agree. I just can't even get slightly excited about Miller B's or Miller B patterns. SE ridge / WAR, pick your poison. They'll probably make every storm cut way, way west. Even with strong CAD I doubt we can pull off a significant ice storm. Most likely ice at the onset transitioning to rain IMO. Like you say, Miller B's stank. The only way they have worked in the past for us is when they're Miller B/A hybrids that transfer energy to the coast but do so to our south in the deep SE (remember dig, dig dig hopes?). I'm open to anything, but the pattern for the next 2 weeks to me looks very poor (better but still poor). Shot in the dark Miller B's are just a really long shot that I can't buy into.

GEFS and GEPS look lock step with each other. SE stays warm with hard core WAR best case scenario. I'm sure EPS is better but haven't seen. Getting tired of squinting for the light at the end of the tunnel.
 

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Same look, different month. It’s exhausting.


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Story of our winter severe storms and rain If only it was January yeah right
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TIMING: The main window for severe storms over the western side of the state will come from 9:00 a.m. until 4 p.m… for the central counties the window is from 12:00 noon to 6:00 p.m… and for East Alabama 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. This will be a generally daytime event.

THREATS: A line of storms will sweep through the state Saturday with potential for damaging winds and a few embedded tornadoes. Also, any discrete cells that form east of the line will be capable of producing a few tornadoes as well. Based on the forecast parameters, a few strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher) can’t be ruled out. Also, some hail is possible with the heavier thunderstorms. And, away from thunderstorms, pressure gradient winds will be fairly robust during the day Saturday; expect a south wind averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts.

RAIN: Rain amounts tomorrow night and Saturday should be around 2 inches for much of Alabama; some flooding issues are possible. We note seven day rain totals (valid through Thursday of next week) are in the 4-5 inch range over North Alabama, with 3-4 inches for the southern counties as more rain is likely next week.
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Oh and lets not forget about the above average temperatures imby that i been dealing with Yeah folks I'm frustrated with this winter....
NEXT WEEK: Moist air returns, and we forecast periods of rain Monday through at least Wednesday. No severe storms are expected, and the weather stays mild with highs in the 60s.
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LovesSnowHatesRidges said:
LOL people that like summer kill me.... who wants to wake up early in the summertime and walk outside and immediately start sweating cause it’s already 95% humidity?
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At least you know what you’re getting. I enjoy summer, I also love winter but it’s always a coin flip and that gets the old after a few weeks.


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NoSnowATL said:
At least you know what you’re getting. I enjoy summer, I also love winter but it’s always a coin flip and that gets the old after a few weeks.


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I love summer for the thunderstorms/lightning photos, and because typically that’s when I’m at a all time high in my life, idk why, but it’s always during summer, and I exercise the most in the summer, my body just seems to handle summer heat well
 
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