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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I love summer for the thunderstorms/lightning photos, and because typically that’s when I’m at a all time high in my life, idk why, but it’s always during summer, and I exercise the most in the summer, my body just seems to handle summer heat well

I agree, we live in the SE( besides Metwannabe) . It’s hot or warm 11. 99% months out of the 12. Our bodies are use to it, that’s probably why we love winter and snow so much. It’s a change and change is good for the mind and body.


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I would respectfully disagree.. I would say we’re probably warm and wet and all that means is we are getting an active storm track .. to get something really beneficial and to get a large storm you need a good storm track like we’ve had thus far along with cold air either already being in place or coming down and meeting the storm track half way .. those create our big dogs we just haven’t seen the big dogs a lot recently so I think we forget how we get them
We have been hot for some time. Not warm. And I have seen big dogs for the past several winters to know too much of a good thing hurts us. 8DEAB728-D0C8-46C6-98DB-4BF65897EB0E.jpeg
 
JB: Oh yeah winter's over
JB 2 days later: Yup here comes the winter weather and cold like I always promised!

Just to clarify, I don’t recall JB actually ever saying or even implying winter is over. He’s too stubborn and too much of a weenie to even consider doing that. It is usually delayed but NOT denied.
Actually though, anyone saying winter is over this early is foolish.
 
Just to clarify, I don’t recall JB actually ever saying or even implying winter is over. He’s too stubborn and too much of a weenie to even consider doing that. It is usually delayed but NOT denied.
Actually though, anyone saying winter is over this early is foolish.

Question? Phase 7 and Georgia winter storms? Do you post something about the phases and winter events in Ga? I’ve been trying to find it. Thanks.


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It's good to see some good news this morning. The 6z GFS shows frozen precip mischief as well as ensemble members. I wouldn't necessarily say it's potential cause it's just "noise" in the mid to long range. I want to see consistency of a winter storm, back to back on every single run before calling anything potential. If a winter storm with great significance is really going to happen, the models will show it back to back in every model run.

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It's good to see some good news this morning. The 6z GFS shows frozen precip mischief as well as ensemble members. I wouldn't necessarily say it's potential cause it's just "noise" in the mid to long range. I want to see consistency of a winter storm, back to back on every single run before calling anything potential. If a winter storm with great significance is really going to happen, the models will show it back to back in every model run.

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Not always.... Sometimes the models will lose the storm in the medium range, only to pick it back up in the short term range.
 
It's good to see some good news this morning. The 6z GFS shows frozen precip mischief as well as ensemble members. I wouldn't necessarily say it's potential cause it's just "noise" in the mid to long range. I want to see consistency of a winter storm, back to back on every single run before calling anything potential. If a winter storm with great significance is really going to happen, the models will show it back to back in every model run.
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I respectfully disagree. We have seen many big dogs with little to no back to back runs in the long range. Plus, around January 20th we are talking peak climo for many in NC outside of the mtns. I believe the signal is stronger than what you just posted.
 
Just to clarify, I don’t recall JB actually ever saying or even implying winter is over. He’s too stubborn and too much of a weenie to even consider doing that. It is usually delayed but NOT denied.
Actually though, anyone saying winter is over this early is foolish.
Yep if you don't like him is one thing but saying something that he didn't say is different. He has never one time said winter is over. Has since Oct said winter would be mid to late Jan to March. He recognizes patterns more than anything.
 
Not always.... Sometimes the models will lose the storm in the medium range, only to pick it back up in the short term range.
That's true, but it's like if something is really going to happen, why does the models sometimes have inconsistency with something? Yes, the models can sometimes pick the storm back up in the shorter range, but sometimes it turns out to be basically nothing, a little bit of something, or something much greater. Sometimes the inconsistency is unbelievable even in the shorter range.
I respectfully disagree. We have seen many big dogs with little to no back to back runs in the long range. Plus, around January 20th we are talking peak climo for many in NC outside of the mtns. I believe the signal is stronger than what you just posted.
If something with such a great strong signal, the models shaw show it on mostly every run. The models shouldn't leave us in the "dark" leaving us in question, "where's the winter storm? it's gone!" and we end up speculating. If something is really going to give, we shaw receive.

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I was being sarcastic btw. But honestly that MJO look is what I saw coming a week or two back. I think she looped last year as well. That’s a bad look if you want winter weather in the SE. I’ll still hope for a 5-10 day period but that’s all at this point.

Lol. I would definitely give it time. No need to get worried about the MJO since it could go back towards better phases or stay in the COD which is better than where it is now.
Just 2 days ago we were looking at some doom and gloom MJO forecasts. What a difference a couple days makes lol.
 
12z NAM suggest a potential severe weather event after 30 hrs. Main threat straight line winds. A few vortices can not be rules out. Should remain south of Maryland. "Famous last words."

12Z-20200109_NAMUS_prec_radar-39-60-10-100.gif
 
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That's true, but it's like if something is really going to happen, why does the models sometimes have inconsistency with something? Yes, the models can sometimes pick the storm back up in the shorter range, but sometimes it turns out to be basically nothing, a little bit of something, or something much greater. Sometimes the inconsistency is unbelievable even in the shorter range. If something with such a great strong signal, the models shaw show it on mostly every run. The models shouldn't leave us in the "dark" leaving us in question, "where's the winter storm? it's gone!" and we end up speculating. If something is really going to give, we shaw receive.

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If you have sodium and water sitting riiiiiiiiiiight next to each other, you have sodium and water. If you have sodium in water, you have BANG! Where did everybody go???!!! The models often can't resolve the exact nature of the interaction of elements the would lead to a storm or no storm, at range. It's why you see runs with storms followed by runs with no storms followed by runs with storms. All you really need to focus on at a distance is the pattern.

Is cold available?
Is the flow active (is energy necessary to create a storm available)?
Is there a model bias to be aware of?

Answer those and then you can assess the probability of a storm and the credibility of what a model might or might not be showing.

To say either that winter storms that turn out to be real are always well-modeled from range is inaccurate, as is saying they always go away and then come back. Both happen. Right now, we're tracking a pattern change to hopefully a better pattern. Once that appears likely, it will also be likely that models will start showing more winter weather events out in time. Then, hopefully, we can reel one or two of those in.
 
If you have sodium and water sitting riiiiiiiiiiight next to each other, you have sodium and water. If you have sodium in water, you have BANG! Where did everybody go???!!! The models often can't resolve the exact nature of the interaction of elements the would lead to a storm or no storm, at range. It's why you see runs with storms followed by runs with no storms followed by runs with storms. All you really need to focus on at a distance is the pattern.

Is cold available?
Is the flow active (is energy necessary to create a storm available)?
Is there a model bias to be aware of?

Answer those and then you can assess the probability of a storm and the credibility of what a model might or might not be showing.

To say either that winter storms that turn out to be real are always well-modeled from range is inaccurate, as is saying they always go away and then come back. Both happen. Right now, we're tracking a pattern change to hopefully a better pattern. Once that appears likely, it will also be likely that models will start showing more winter weather events out in time. Then, hopefully, we can reel one or two of those in.

Bingo!
 
Models are quidance. Let's look at the January 7th event. From 120-240 the GFS had a southern track. The CMC had a northern track into New York State. The Euro bounced. In the end the truth, or reality, was in the middle. That does not happen every time.

Rain Cold said it best. It just means conditions are such that a storm could occure.... That's why we look and hope. Keep in mind we most save some hope for March...
 
Twitter 2 days ago-
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Twitter today-
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