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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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WxWatch said:
It's good to see some good news this morning. The 6z GFS shows frozen precip mischief as well as ensemble members. I wouldn't necessarily say it's potential cause it's just "noise" in the mid to long range. I want to see consistency of a winter storm, back to back on every single run before calling anything potential. If a winter storm with great significance is really going to happen, the models will show it back to back in every model run.

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Although true in some cases a lot of our winter storms pop up within the 5 day range seemingly out of no where .. the key is to look for what could cause a storm here in the south East and watch and see how players on the field trend as that period comes closer
 
NoSnowATL said:
Twitter 2 days ago-
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Twitter today-
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So from a dumpster fire to a drunk.... that's about right. ;)
 
WxWatch said:
That's true, but it's like if something is really going to happen, why does the models sometimes have inconsistency with something? Yes, the models can sometimes pick the storm back up in the shorter range, but sometimes it turns out to be basically nothing, a little bit of something, or something much greater. Sometimes the inconsistency is unbelievable even in the shorter range. If something with such a great strong signal, the models shaw show it on mostly every run. The models shouldn't leave us in the "dark" leaving us in question, "where's the winter storm? it's gone!" and we end up speculating. If something is really going to give, we shaw receive.

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That’s also the thing models aren’t the for sure answer to things as many people believe. The models are suppose to be used as tools to help figure out what could be happening down the road along with pattern recognition. Models usually take until about a couple days out to see a somewhat for sure answer but even then we look to short range to actually dine out the details which even then can change in as little as 24 hours
 
Rain Cold said:
If you have sodium and water sitting riiiiiiiiiiight next to each other, you have sodium and water. If you have sodium in water, you have BANG! Where did everybody go???!!! The models often can't resolve the exact nature of the interaction of elements the would lead to a storm or no storm, at range. It's why you see runs with storms followed by runs with no storms followed by runs with storms. All you really need to focus on at a distance is the pattern.

Is cold available?
Is the flow active (is energy necessary to create a storm available)?
Is there a model bias to be aware of?

Answer those and then you can assess the probability of a storm and the credibility of what a model might or might not be showing.

To say either that winter storms that turn out to be real are always well-modeled from range is inaccurate, as is saying they always go away and then come back. Both happen. Right now, we're tracking a pattern change to hopefully a better pattern. Once that appears likely, it will also be likely that models will start showing more winter weather events out in time. Then, hopefully, we can reel one or two of those in.
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Hopefully we can reel in a winter storm or two. I completely understand that the models aren't going to be perfect. They simulate what could happen. But it's like every winter storm we see is mostly in the 200+/300+ range and sometimes there would be consistency of a signal. Then as time closes in, it turns out to be basically nothing - big disappointment.

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Rain Cold said:
If you have sodium and water sitting riiiiiiiiiiight next to each other, you have sodium and water. If you have sodium in water, you have BANG! Where did everybody go???!!! The models often can't resolve the exact nature of the interaction of elements the would lead to a storm or no storm, at range. It's why you see runs with storms followed by runs with no storms followed by runs with storms. All you really need to focus on at a distance is the pattern.

Is cold available?
Is the flow active (is energy necessary to create a storm available)?
Is there a model bias to be aware of?

Answer those and then you can assess the probability of a storm and the credibility of what a model might or might not be showing.

To say either that winter storms that turn out to be real are always well-modeled from range is inaccurate, as is saying they always go away and then come back. Both happen. Right now, we're tracking a pattern change to hopefully a better pattern. Once that appears likely, it will also be likely that models will start showing more winter weather events out in time. Then, hopefully, we can reel one or two of those in.
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So you're telling me there's a chance
 
Can someone bump the exercise healthy eating thread I can’t find it on mobile
 
Rain Cold said:
If you have sodium and water sitting riiiiiiiiiiight next to each other, you have sodium and water. If you have sodium in water, you have BANG! Where did everybody go???!!! The models often can't resolve the exact nature of the interaction of elements the would lead to a storm or no storm, at range. It's why you see runs with storms followed by runs with no storms followed by runs with storms. All you really need to focus on at a distance is the pattern.

Is cold available?
Is the flow active (is energy necessary to create a storm available)?
Is there a model bias to be aware of?

Answer those and then you can assess the probability of a storm and the credibility of what a model might or might not be showing.

To say either that winter storms that turn out to be real are always well-modeled from range is inaccurate, as is saying they always go away and then come back. Both happen. Right now, we're tracking a pattern change to hopefully a better pattern. Once that appears likely, it will also be likely that models will start showing more winter weather events out in time. Then, hopefully, we can reel one or two of those in.
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Why are you talking about salt water

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SD said:
Why are you talking about salt water

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I heard it helps sore throats. I thought you were staying out of here?? Didn't want to miss all the fun, did you? :)
 
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