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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Storm5 said:
For those throwing in towel saying winter is over PLEASE do us all a favor and STOP POSTING . Find something else to do , another hobby for the next three months . Oh and make sure when the first real threat pops up between now and March 1 do NOT come back here


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but it really may be... lol
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I’ll try and reiterate for the people in the back that maybe can’t look at all the posts all the time ... STOP LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE OPERATION POOP GFS ... that gives you NO indication of what’s to come it won’t come to formation just as all the other operational long range Gfs forecasts haven’t in the past several months ... look at ensembles and for the love of god look at what’s been more reliable which would be the EURO model and it’s ensembles.. now I do believe the pattern change is going to be a process I’m sure we will see several icing events and cad events before a full change to cold and snow .. this would most likely benefit more the upper south regions in the time period 18th-25th I.e Tennessee North Carolina .. the usuals .. after that though we should see a more solidified trough pattern dig into the East with what looks to be lots of blocking beginning to take place as the opposite reaction will have fully commenced by that point .. and no this isn’t going to shut off the STJ it’s not as simple as turning off a hose it wasn’t “turned off” a month ago and it’s not going to turn off now sure there may be initial times of cold and dry as there always will be but the systems will come in as they have been for months and they will have a much easier time lining up with a cold shot once we fully get into this pattern after 25th
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Back a couple weeks ago when there was literally no sign of cold on the ensembles I saw you pick out cold operational runs and scream pattern change several times. If all that wishcasting would have came true we'd all have over a foot of snow and frigid temps by now.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Back a couple weeks ago when there was literally no sign of cold on the ensembles I saw you pick out cold operational runs and scream pattern change several times. If all that wishcasting would have came true we'd all have over a foot of snow and frigid temps by now.
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Indeed I was wrong to pick those models out as it is wrong to do now .. but now I’m picking out a majority of the models supporting pattern change and this includes ensembles which are high and dry the basket we need to be putting our eggs into and shining light to the absolute minority of just the operational Gfs at this point that says winter is delayed till February maybe late late January cause near the end of the operational it looks good .. to throw in the towel with the overwhelming support for pattern change around 18-25th seems like an odd thing to do
 
More of my pictures in Tahoe today this was all old snow at least several days old if not older but away from the trail where I was for awhile was so deep my shoes were buried a few times and it was a struggle to walk through. I was kind of surprised given how warm and sunny it's been the last 3 days

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Rain Cold said:
Do you recall the CFS showing a winter month this cold before? It seems like it mostly shows warm most of the time.
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Yeah, I keep expecting it to back of. It does bounce around run to run but it’s been mostly cold after Jan 20th.
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Back a couple weeks ago when there was literally no sign of cold on the ensembles I saw you pick out cold operational runs and scream pattern change several times. If all that wishcasting would have came true we'd all have over a foot of snow and frigid temps by now.
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Lol. The bittercasting is getting worse than any wishcasting.

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It’s as simple as this, the SE will have 1-3 legit chances to score in the next 3 months, we often thread the needle here and do good off that, no need to throw away winter Because its far from over, AN winter doesn’t mean no snow, in fact AN winters can still have big dogs in them, all you need is a week of a favorable pattern and that can the job done, the winter canceling posts ain’t it
 
Another thing to note. Is these storm systems has been bringing areas 1-3 inches of rain. If we finally get the cold air with one of these systems. Well at a 10 to 1 ratio it could be something significant. We could have a mostly warm winter and see one significant storm. It only takes one and at least here in upstate sc. the only year in history to not have snow is 2011-2012 winter. So odds of seeing a snow seems to be pretty good.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s as simple as this, the SE will have 1-3 legit chances to score in the next 3 months, we often thread the needle here and do good off that, no need to throw away winter Because its far from over, AN winter doesn’t mean no snow, in fact AN winters can still have big dogs in them, all you need is a week of a favorable pattern and that can the job done, the winter canceling posts ain’t it
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Exactly a little perspective and grasp on reality might do folks some good

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Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s as simple as this, the SE will have 1-3 legit chances to score in the next 3 months, we often thread the needle here and do good off that, no need to throw away winter Because its far from over, AN winter doesn’t mean no snow, in fact AN winters can still have big dogs in them, all you need is a week of a favorable pattern and that can the job done, the winter canceling posts ain’t it
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Wow finally some positivity. Thanks for the post
 
I'm not saying winter is over for the rest of the winter. Winter is over for the time being through at least mid month. I just got into one of those moods, cause soon as we get into January the pattern HAS to go into a train wreck. Who is tired of all of the speculation, hoping and wishing that we had a good pattern that supports cold air and winter storms? I am! It's like when are we ever going to get a legitimate cold pattern? Why is it so difficult for us to get a winter storm? We get the moisture, not having the cold is always the problem. And then, if it gets really cold, it has a better chance at being dry. We can't win for losing gosh dang it!

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Well a lot of our winter storms occur after dry cold. Not usually after hot and wet. Being too wet is part of the problem IMO.
 
I just need that cold air ever so close, I can’t handle another January 2000 (no way I can remember the date) but Memphis (90 miles NW of me) was getting 20-25 degree temps, ice and snow and we sat at 55 just to the west of a stalled front. Never ever made it to us, and 30-40 miles SE me it was in the 70s. I have never seen anything like that, at least so close to me.
 
You don’t see a track that crisp modeled too often these days...Even if it’s just a 300 hour Miller A #ColdRain
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