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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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Brick Tamland
Guest
You also don't have to cry red alert over one bad run just a couple of hours ago versus all the positive things people have noted yesterday and even today. That is the post I was referring to. Not from you, but from someone else.
Just saying, if you go back to this time 48 hours ago until now and read the January thread, things were 90% positive, and people were excited about how the pattern looked and the models were progressing. Then we have one hiccup and people are like OH NO! WE'RE DOOMED!
I just think you have to take a look at the picture as a whole and compare things the last 48 hours before getting worried about it going bad now.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Nobody is saying "OH NO WE ARE DOOMED" it's just a potential thing to consider
"ALEET" just means be wary in a light hearted, humorous kind of way because I'd rather have at least seen a similarly cold run and we have seen many false cold alarms. It doesn't mean it will be right. If it is right, it is just weather anyway. Not the end of the world. This is supposed to be fun to follow, whether or not a particular run shows what you want to see. This is just a hobby. Hobbies are fun, right? Come on, Brick, go back to the good posts that you've been making recently.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Literally nobody is saying the sky is falling haha. 1 or 2 posts of "Hey check this out [insert model image here that suggests a not so good change] does not mean we have entered Hell. They're just bringing attention to potential issues. Relax.
packfan98
Moderator
OK. You make these kind of posts every time the models take a turn for the worse. You've now cluttered up this thread and the January thread. People are going to post what they want. Don't try to moderate them or pick a fight with someone for their posts. Take a break and come back when we have a good model run and you can celebrate with us. Log out after a bad model run if the posts are bothering you that much.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
This is the Whamby thread. Why is it that you go away for weeks at a time and then come back criticizing everyone? This thread is for whining at the pattern, if you want. If you don't like it, don't read it. If there's whining in the January thread, let us know and we'll delete it.
Even if some were freaking out, it's unwise to not at least understand why they may be frightened due to the fact that a bad run verifying is a fairly more common occurrence here than not. It's ok for ppl to be uneasy g!
Lot of people getting worked up entirely to much. Let's actually enjoy these chances coming up in the medium to long range before we worry about the potential switch back to a crappy pattern. Remember, a week ago we were just trying to reel in this cold pattern that we pretty much now know is probably going to happen. Well, now that we know it's about to get cold, we are trying to look past that. We've found what we have been looking for, we have a several day period next week that is favorable for cold and or wintry weather. Let's just zero in on that and worry about the next crappy pattern when we know when this pattern coming up is not going to pan out.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
We need a thread to whine about the whiners.
Well to be fair the teleconnections have never matched a sustained cold pattern. MJO stalling in 7 and trying to loop. +AO, +NAO and an EPO that's failed to go negative all year. The brutal cold the GEFS was showing was based on a phantom -EPO.
Not to mention I don't recall any pro going all in on sustained cold except JB. And anyone who's been here any length of time knows not to pay him any attention.
We've been in such a bad pattern that anything looked great. But seeing all the cold being modeled when the teles didn't really support that was a red flag to me all along. You're right it could be a blip. But looks to me like models correcting to what it should have been all along. Which is a pattern change for sure. And not a shutout pattern, but not a great pants explosion pattern either.
Who is actually whining in the Jan thread?
Whining: "complaining in a feeble or petulant way"
Nobody
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I was just saying in general. So those that want to complain about the complainers can complain.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
So, what does everyone consider to be a trend? I would say give something at least 24 hours one way or the other for it to be a positive or negative trend. If the models show something going the same way, progressing the same, positive or negative for 24 straight hours, then I would consider that a true trend in one direction versus the other.
the very definition of insanity
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