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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Minneapolis goes from flurries to a blizzard inside 100hr..and we’re worried about a storm track at 180
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May need to start looking at the gfs over Burkina Faso to see if we can get a NW trend to work. Matter of fact this might be the one over Egypt

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SD said:
May need to start looking at the gfs over Burkina Faso to see if we can get a NW trend to work. Matter of fact this might be the one over Egypt

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Just give me more of this at 00z and I’ll go down swinging
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I'm so over this winter shouldn't you guys be mad at the fact we haven't seen any snow in over a year and some almost two years....These models are pathetic each year technology increase but yet these so call weather models can't get a damn thing right... It's beyond frustrating that we can't get at least one wintry system to come through the South East without a problem even when we have almost everything to line up two get winter weather something always freaking screws up... Yeah we always get threats beyond 7 days that don't freaking verify and we constantly put all our damn eggs in the bag when we see a possible pattern change or any type of wintry mischief....
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You're sounding like me when I was disgruntled about the pattern days ago lol. I don't blame you though, I know where you're coming from. I quit falling for anything beyond 7 days unless I see something that is consistent to my liking and if I feel right about it. Sometimes there is consistency with things beyond 7 days.

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WxWatch said:
You're sounding like me when I was disgruntled about the pattern days ago lol. I don't blame you though, I know where you're coming from. I quit falling for anything beyond 7 days unless I see something that is consistent to my liking and if I feel right about it. Sometimes there is consistency with things beyond 7 days.

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Sometimes you can get some energy left behind in the gulf in a high pressure dominated pattern with strong blocking up top.. then you can track a bowling ball entering Baja from 7 days out
 
NoSnowATL said:
When I was 18 I can honestly say I didn’t care about snow. Mostly cared about beer and boobies. Not much has changed i guess besides I like snow more now and the other 2 don’t like me as much.


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Yeah I was def too cool for weather at 18 yrs old.
 
Winter is just the worst. I curse Barnes And Noble for selling me that Old Farmers Almanac and Winter Weather book back when I was in 2nd grade. I hate this hobby
 

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
lmao we went from snow threat to rain in the upper 60’s Jeebus ? ? View attachment 30936
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I mean how can we ever even give the GFS a nod? I'm referring to 5+ days out...... I'll never believe it until I need a coat and or snow is falling.......... lol. It's so horrible I don't have enough words to describe how pathetic it is. (All those blue maps are pretty though, when they show up every other run)! I never bought into the real cold air it's been showing for the SE. Is it going to turn colder sure for a short time, I don't believe anything super cold just the average run of the mill cold. But I would be surprised IF we DIDN'T time something up for a winter event in the next couple weeks.
I will Never buy into a Winter Storm threat unless it's inside 5 days and the KING is on board with it. GFS rant over! o_O Peace from a old Snowman at heart!
 
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JB on the Euro weeklies.

  • The Euro is much colder.
  • It is in line with other years with a northeastern Pacific warm pool for mid and late winter.
  • He said Later in the period, it tried to pull the trough back into the West.
  • He also said he sees why!!! Look at the heavy precipitation the model has redeveloping in mid February where the MJO is in Phases 4 & 5:
  • One problem is that Phase 5 is no longer warm in February.
    Is it right? He says Quite frankly he don't know. lol......... The analogs pointed strongly to the flip in the pattern that is in front of us. The idea is it lasts through February and into March. I would weigh them just as much as this.

    Ok the BIG Verdict is,

The target date for the cold regime starting January 20 looks like it has merit. I don't believe the Euro after February 15, though I can see what it's doing given its precipitation pattern in the Pacific. Countering that are the analogs for the warm pool in the northeastern Pacific, which despite all this warmth up front, have insisted it would be cold. For now the pattern looks like it's turning the way we have outlined.
 
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