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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Storm5 said:
I’m throwing in the model towel

All the models have sucked in some respect this winter


I’ll just look out the damn window for the next four weeks and see what I get



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Welcome to the team. We have plenty of seats available.


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GaWx said:
1. There’s nothing imo wrong with beating a dead horse when the dead horse keeps fooling so many people. Plus there’s always new people to weather and to this forums who need to be educated. This cold bias cannot be overemphasized imo.

2. He does sound mad, but I think he has been mostly right since he switched several weeks ago to going warmer than models and poopooing cold after earlier going for a cold winter. He’s been wishy washy at times from one day to the next when models changed drastically, but for the most part he has been on the warm train and correct. I’d prefer someone like him over someone like a very stubborn JB with cold colored glasses and who practically never mentions the cold bias of any model.
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The thing is, nobody who is capable of objective thinking and basic learning is legitimately fooled by the GFS cold bias at this point, on this board, at least. If they are, then they're not going to be able to be helped.

As far as BAM goes, they've pretty much ruined their credibility. All in on cold that didn't come. Late on the torch. Then all in on torching that turned pretty seasonal. Then all in on canceling winter. Who, if expecting to be taken as a serious forecaster, should go all in on things that should require careful consideration and and acknowledgement of the uncertainty inherent in long range forecasting, in particular? They may not be as aggravating as JB, but they still have a long way to go to prove any ability at serious LR forecasting.

EDIT: And being late to the party and being really loud about an idea that many were already in agreement around doesn't make them some sort of weather hero...just because they want to go GFS bashing now. I'm not saying you're saying they're a weather hero. But they're really just not all that noteworthy, IMO.
 
Rain Cold said:
The thing is, nobody who is capable of objective thinking and basic learning is legitimately fooled by the GFS cold bias at this point, on this board, at least. If they are, then they're not going to be able to be helped.

As far as BAM goes, they've pretty much ruined their credibility. All in on cold that didn't come. Late on the torch. Then all in on torching that turned pretty seasonal. Then all in on canceling winter. Who, if expecting to be taken as a serious forecaster, should go all in on things that should require careful consideration and and acknowledgement of the uncertainty inherent in long range forecasting, in particular? They may not be as aggravating as JB, but they still have a long way to go to prove any ability at forecasting.
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I think you made some good points here, but I still stand by my post, too. I think that part of the reason there’s been so much criticism of BAM in recent weeks is that so many don’t like to hear about warmth over and over because they want it cold. If the majority instead loved warmth instead of loving cold, I think there’d have been a lot less criticism of BAM.
 
Well look at that poop. Even when I move farther north. Haha got to love it!
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I hope Pivotal doesn't go full paywall. I actually don't even need the good version of the UKMET, just need the Euro, but I'd understand if it goes behind a paywall in the future, and might think about paying (but I do also have a free source for the Euro if I want to see something).
 
While we're beating dead horses, I just want to point out that the modeling has coalesced around a surface low/trough over the Great Lakes this weekend while our southern stream low takes a relatively ideal track off the Carolina Coast--but the end result is a lack of cold air across the SE. No doubt, the low/surface trough over the Great Lakes contributed to this scenario. If we had a surface high instead, perhaps the results would be different.

So while the GL low is not the only culprit, we can say that here is an example of the GL low hindering our cause.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Haven’t had a chance to look lately. I assume the consistent ICON still has the big winter storm for the weekend? Asking for a friend!!!


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They don't call it the ICON for nothing...it's a con job!!!
 
smast16 said:
I think he finally cracked boys....
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Haha I deleted the post because I was having second thoughts about it. No I'm not on drugs...smh...it was simply a dream I had. But, it would be interesting that the dream became a reality...

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I still think that most of us have a decent shot at scoring before winter is over. I also believe that modeling won't even show this hypothetical system until we get within the 3-5 day range. It's not going to show up in the LR modeling. Given how poorly they've performed, why would we even expect that?
 
At this point I'll take some token flakes. Just give me something. It hasn't snowed at RDU for 413 days.
 
ryan1234 said:
I still think that most of us have a decent shot at scoring before winter is over. I also believe that modeling won't even show this hypothetical system until we get within the 3-5 day range. It's not going to show up in the LR modeling. Given how poorly they've performed, why would we even expect that?
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No, they perform poorly when they model cold and snow. Warm and rain is dead on. There is nothing in the pattern in the next three weeks that gives cause for hope to score a winter storm. After that, It's Spring and we are well-done, battered and deep-fried. Get used to the 95 degree heat! Truly the south has the worst weather in the nation.
 
Broken024 said:
Just go all in on the CFS. No worries boys
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Yes it a good one to go all in on :rolleyes: It's COLD fab feb it advertised forever, just had a change of heart as we near FAIL FEB! As usual for that model, it verifies well 5 days or less before the month begins.....................................
 
weatherfide said:
No, they perform poorly when they model cold and snow. Warm and rain is dead on. There is nothing in the pattern in the next three weeks that gives cause for hope to score a winter storm. After that, It's Spring and we are well-done, battered and deep-fried. Get used to the 95 degree heat! Truly the south has the worst weather in the nation.
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Well, we can agree to disagree. Declaring winter over before our snowiest month arrives is just as irresponsible as calling for a major winter storm a week in advance. We also don't have the worst weather in the nation. That would be SoCal and a lot of the Southwest. The weather there is extremely boring and for the most part, uneventful.
 
Think we're going to pretty much know if there's a shot or if this is another rug pull relatively soon from what I saw on the GFS and I'm a lot more interested in the first 10-14 days of February than a month period that's starting late in the month. If it is a rug pull, I'm going to throw in my towel.
 
18z GEFS almost identical to the 12z EPS. Still looking good for WNC mountain areas. Jimmy, when do we bite on this one for chasing?
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Parker said:
18z GEFS almost identical to the 12z EPS. Still looking good for WNC mountain areas. Jimmy, when do we bite on this one for chasing?
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Well, I bit last Friday but I need to unbite by Wednesday if I want to stay home and keep my security deposit..I’m going to keep model watching for a few more days. I feel decent about it though
 
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