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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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weatherfide said:
Good point. But I’m happily married to the best “model” now. Best wife, best mother best friend! I can’t get the snow where I am now, though.
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I hear you! Just providing guidance to the young singles out there. :)

ETA: I'd take the snowstorm too.
 
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
 
RAh has a chance of rain in the forecast from Saturday night through Thursday. Going to be a miserable week.
 
Brick Tamland said:
RAh has a chance of rain in the forecast from Saturday night through Thursday. Going to be a miserable week.
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Check out Seattle's forecast if you want to be miserable. Starting Monday: Snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow, snow......
 
Rain Cold said:
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
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My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
 
Rain Cold said:
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
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Not thrilled with the D10 eps and how its handling the Siberia/Ak/arctic pattern but at least its showing a less enthusiastic version. First hurdle is the trough retrograding around d7 and the pinched off high over AK.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
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Hahah, I feel the same way! I want to believe that there is snow on the way, but then again at the same time, I'm like, "hold on horses."

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My inner goober is saying “The snow is on the way.”, but if I had to bet my bank account on it I’d say there’s a greasy beard hair in my cheesy chicken tortellini
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It's kind of like eating rice and watching the last one crawl away.
 
Not ideal
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SD said:
Not ideal
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Yup, not ideal at all. The cold is there, but there won't be a winter storm with extreme lowering heights over the east like that. Lucky this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours so this may not verify at all.

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I see something else that's of worry there if it were to play out that way. A cyclone in the pacific deciding to not play nice and push on the ridge that builds, and it leads to negative heights starting to build back in Alaska and you start seeing negative heights build in Greenland too.

I know that's very layperson speak though, but that look if it were to be true would lead to a mere transitory cold snap...IMO.

Edit: well...if we're going to take the GFS at face value, it gets cold again very late after a few days of average it looks like.
 
WxWatch said:
Yup, not ideal at all. The cold is there, but there won't be a winter storm with extreme lowering heights over the east like that. Lucky this is the GFS OP beyond 200 hours so this may not verify at all.

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How bout let’s I don’t know be happy the pattern is gonna change from where we are now......
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
That was last year let’s not reminisce in the past .. looking forward high snow means GENERALLY mean that it’s eyeing some mischief possibility coming our way that’s what we need to focus on .. hoping 12z gefs at least a has a good snow mean although I’m sure it won’t be as high
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I doubt that people that have been following this for a while base things on just last year. The post below is from a well respected poster from a few years back who knows his stuff. Here is what can happen with using ensembles even at short range....

"models are useless. ensembles are useless. every. single. ens. member. for the euro and gfs 24 HOURS OUT showed a huge hit for RDU. the morning OF THE STORM the euro showed 12" of all snow for rdu. we track these storms 190+hrs out and even with a 12hr lead time they still are crap. don't believe any snow forecast until you can see the coorelation coefficient line 100+ miles to your south. "

Not saying this is always the case but ensembles are just as bad as the model run they are based on even at short leads, let alone at longer leads.
 
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