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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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What if, now bear with me here, what if the models are wrong about February and it goes down as the hottest month in the hottest winter on record for the majority of the southeast? What if that happens? What if we then exit a hot and humid February and enter Marvelous March and it turns out even hotter? Like +20+25 anoms up and down the eastern seaboard. I mean has anyone even considered that?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What if, now bear with me here, what if the models are wrong about February and it goes down as the hottest month in the hottest winter on record for the majority of the southeast? What if that happens? What if we then exit a hot and humid February and enter Marvelous March and it turns out even hotter? Like +20+25 anoms up and down the eastern seaboard. I mean has anyone even considered that?
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Well I guess that would be a win. Lol If it isn’t going to snow give me highs in the 70’s and lows in the 40’s.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What if, now bear with me here, what if the models are wrong about February and it goes down as the hottest month in the hottest winter on record for the majority of the southeast? What if that happens? What if we then exit a hot and humid February and enter Marvelous March and it turns out even hotter? Like +20+25 anoms up and down the eastern seaboard. I mean has anyone even considered that?
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After this winter has been I wouldn't be surprised haha
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What if, now bear with me here, what if the models are wrong about February and it goes down as the hottest month in the hottest winter on record for the majority of the southeast? What if that happens? What if we then exit a hot and humid February and enter Marvelous March and it turns out even hotter? Like +20+25 anoms up and down the eastern seaboard. I mean has anyone even considered that?
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Oh my, stop it! I can't accept those kind of questions lol. If that happens, all of us would have a melt down.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What if, now bear with me here, what if the models are wrong about February and it goes down as the hottest month in the hottest winter on record for the majority of the southeast? What if that happens? What if we then exit a hot and humid February and enter Marvelous March and it turns out even hotter? Like +20+25 anoms up and down the eastern seaboard. I mean has anyone even considered that?
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I'm rooting for this now.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What if, now bear with me here, what if the models are wrong about February and it goes down as the hottest month in the hottest winter on record for the majority of the southeast? What if that happens? What if we then exit a hot and humid February and enter Marvelous March and it turns out even hotter? Like +20+25 anoms up and down the eastern seaboard. I mean has anyone even considered that?
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What if a cow jumps over the moon and poops on your house?


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Rain Cold said:
I'm rooting for this now.
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The thing that is worrisome is these models are programmed to show weather output using the teleconnections that “man” tells them are the driving factors in determining said weather..and I don’t believe those teleconnections drive the weather the same way they once did
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The thing that is worrisome is these models are programmed to show weather output using the teleconnections that “man” tells them are the driving factors in determining said weather..and I don’t believe those teleconnections drive the weather the same way they once did
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They don't..... you do realize after hour 0 it's all math right

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Ollie Williams said:
honestly ever since the FV3 the GFS showing a storm means nothing. The Euro, however, is awesome when it shows a storm. I'm really looking forward to the next GFS upgrade.
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Euro hasn't been great either but definitely have to have it on board when there is a storm for sure.
 
Every run the gfs shows a completely different outcome.


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GFS didn’t give us our 50/50 low this run. Look what it tried to do with that big bombing coastal this run vs 18z..

00z
BF5BEC90-3F9C-42E1-9FB8-02868E9EBE3F.gif
18z
B6741349-8C05-4703-A9A4-DD0C6134ED3D.gif
We need that other LP over the Atlantic to trend stronger over the next several days similar to what happy hour was showing
 
Well, the 0z GFS does have the winter storm again during the last week, but it's not as good as it's 18z run. That's okay at this stage, there's not going to be consistency for details at this range. The consistency I'm looking for as of now is the signal for the winter storm. Another run on the list!

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah idk how a something that large scale and important can change that drastically from run to run inside 8-9 days..and people wonder why our cold keeps disappearing inside 200hr like clockwork ??‍♂️
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Exactly I don't overstand it either! It's a freaking waste of time and money to run that piece of garbage............. And they have the nerve to run it every 6 hours! lol
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
So here’s 500 when that big winter storm hits towards the end of the GFS..it looks a lot like what the CFS has been forecasting for Feb for 2 weeks nowView attachment 31126
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Yes it does.............. It's been advertising a Fab Feb for a while. Bet it flips warm last week of January!!

If we can't get at least a winter weather advisory by the end of the month, I'm deleting your account too!
 
I wish the Euro OP would run beyond 240 hrs. If it did; I would be so curious as to what it would show on it's runs for the last week.

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I hope this doesnt come across as entirely cynical but I’m having a hard time understanding why people are still caught up in storms that are 10+ days ahead? Has there ever been a winter storm that held true in the southeast that far out? Recently it seems not
 
3ft of snow in Atlanta huh.... My response to this ensemble member..... EDIT: I was trying to quote baroowoofr's post a few pages back, but my tablet is acting dumb.
 
whatitdo said:
I hope this doesnt come across as entirely cynical but I’m having a hard time understanding why people are still caught up in storms that are 10+ days ahead? Has there ever been a winter storm that held true in the southeast that far out? Recently it seems not
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there are, but off the top of my head, cant' recall. GAwx might know, or Webberstein.
 
whatitdo said:
I hope this doesnt come across as entirely cynical but I’m having a hard time understanding why people are still caught up in storms that are 10+ days ahead? Has there ever been a winter storm that held true in the southeast that far out? Recently it seems not
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Because it's all we got Lol

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WxWatch said:
I wish the Euro OP would run beyond 240 hrs. If it did; I would be so curious as to what it would show on it's runs for the last week.

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Honestly it wouldn't matter, the eps fwiw looks decent at end of it's run but it's looked good in Lala land many times before.

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BIG FROSTY said:
Thanks! I’ll have to try that sometime.


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If you like Mexican food we have a couple of good places but I'm very partial to San Jose. Not sure if you've ever had Mexican food in our neck of the woods but they have a white sauce with the chips that is amazing, you can only get it in northeast North Carolina and Southern Va.

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metwannabe said:
If you like Mexican food we have a couple of good places but I'm very partial to San Jose. Not sure if you've ever had Mexican food in our neck of the woods but they have a white sauce with the chips that is amazing, you can only get it in northeast North Carolina and Southern Va.

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Love Mexican food! Eat it about every week. I will have to try San Jose! Thanks for the suggestions.
 
Still on for a mix Saturday morning, subject to change at the last minute. lol

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 20 percent.

SATURDAY
Snow, rain likely with a chance of freezing rain in the morning, then rain and freezing rain in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
 
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