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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Rain Cold said:
So after 3 days of positive model trends, this is the first morning we're starting to see some doubt creep in. PV moving over to the other side of the globe, cold air being delayed, Pacific turning back around, etc. Not that any of those are invalid...they actually are quite valid concerns. Just noting the trends. If it does go to crap, we can look back and say that the first hints of that trend were showing themselves the morning of 1/10.

Hopefully, that won't be the case.
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So I must have missed it this morning, 12z and 6z gefs looked good. What were the bad trends. Haven't seen the eps.
 
SnowNiner said:
So I must have missed it this morning, 12z and 6z gefs looked good. What were the bad trends. Haven't seen the eps.
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I think a lot of us are just being cautious and weary of the cold after all the constant teasing last year. Or maybe not and i'm just projecting.
 
Thor said:
I doubt that people that have been following this for a while base things on just last year. The post below is from a well respected poster from a few years back who knows his stuff. Here is what can happen with using ensembles even at short range....

"models are useless. ensembles are useless. every. single. ens. member. for the euro and gfs 24 HOURS OUT showed a huge hit for RDU. the morning OF THE STORM the euro showed 12" of all snow for rdu. we track these storms 190+hrs out and even with a 12hr lead time they still are crap. don't believe any snow forecast until you can see the coorelation coefficient line 100+ miles to your south. "

Not saying this is always the case but ensembles are just as bad as the model run they are based on even at short leads, let alone at longer leads.
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This was one storm and there was a rain snow line we had to deal with which always throws models for a loop .. if say we got solid cold air in place and a storm to ride around that we would have significant confidence in an all snow event and would then have to worry about qpf amounts which is something ensembles and models can be of more use for
 
packfan98 said:
Fans of cold weather are not going to like the 12z EPS? It's much warmer than the 0z?
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I don't think it was much warmer but seeing the SER creep back in before pattern reload and the +PNA pushed back a few frames just gives you queasy feelings in the 'ol gut, ya know?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This was one storm and there was a rain snow line we had to deal with which always throws models for a loop .. if say we got solid cold air in place and a storm to ride around that we would have significant confidence in an all snow event and would then have to worry about qpf amounts which is something ensembles and models can be of more use for
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I appreciate your optimism but it seems like you make a lot of declarative statements regarding things that are coming. Most are all just looking for better patterns that can produce something. Fantasy snow maps are for twitter clicks. Couple of things about your response....
1. Every Storm has a rain Snow Line in the SE
2. We very rarely have SOLID cold air in place when the storm actually arrives, generally, when there is anomalous cold we wouldn't have the precip to go with it. So we have to be content living on the temperature edge.
3. I wish for the day when i need to worry about qpf amounts, that only times that comes up is with late blooming coastals mainly(atleast for MBY)

The point i was trying to make was even when literally every model shows something within 24 hours there is still the absolute possibility we whiff, so why concentrate on the details that are 200 hours away and extremely unlikely to play out in that fashion. The person who posted that response is somebody with degrees in this field and is very knowledgeable, obviously they were upset because they wanted snow like the rest of us, but this isn't just "one storm" or "one year" this is how it is in the SE. The snowfall output is nice to see but pretty meaningless.
 
whatalife said:
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Dr no, wants to live up to its name, but right now it's teasing us with...Dr. kinda sorta...maybe it's because euro wants to kill the mjo wave in low amp 7..

So here we are again with rooting for the gefs again, lol. Hard model watching this weekend. We've got to get this within 10 days for me to sense any confidence. Cold arrival, not the ridge.
 
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