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Autumn Digital Model/Ensemble Winter Thread

Ollie Williams

It Gon’ Rain
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#1
Hopefully, this is an appropriate thread, I saw the MA forum doing this and thought it was a good idea. Mods/Admins feel free to delete this

The purpose of this thread would be to organize all the wintery models in this thread so we can get excited about all the model "firsts"
Essentially :Weenie::Weenie: freak out that you can't be penalized for. I know that is what the fall Whamby is for and our many, many other threads, however, this would be nice for future winters to keep track of how far in advance we've gotten.

I've posted several in the Hotober so just to organize things...
:Weenie::Weenie:
Run 10/5 18z
Forecast 2 am Saturday, October 19th
Tis the Season
The First Ensemble-member (#3) for snow over central NC from GSO to RDU. Here's an RDU Meteogram
View attachment 24275 View attachment 24278

View attachment 24276
Edit: The next time this will happen is, 10/10 18z GEFS M5 View attachment 24381
FWIW Today's winter ensemble member highlights
06z 10/11
Nice ensemble member into texas #19 @Brent does this make it to your backyard?

18z 10/11 I believe this is the first member to make it into GA/AL that I know of at least outside of the much higher elevations #8
6z October 13th
Here is tonight's ensemble member report, Quite a member #15, Large snow across east TN and the First member to make it to Bham. Even though It's just a dusting, there does seem to be a dusting as well over Mack, Jimmy and maybe Shetley in NW SC. I believe CLT gets some flurries on #18

I almost forgot @Brent this run you get 2 members, Lucky Duck ;)

#4 10/14
06z
GEFS member #18 #19 #15 gives central NC snow, the most so far.
 
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Ollie Williams

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#5
10/16 18z GFS
Forecast 8:00am- 2:00-pm October 30th, 2019
Second operational run to snow over MBY and central NC.
Pretty good to see 2 FV3 runs to show snow in the SE 3 runs apart :rolleyes:




Definitely cold air there
 
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Ollie Williams

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#6
I didn't see 00z, just posting some maps for the Archive
10/16 00z GFS
2:00am-8:00pm October 30th 2019
The first model to anticipate snow over the SE
It's a cold chasing moisture setup so It won't work
gfs-nc-total_snow_10to1-2566400.png gfs-conus-z500_anom-2480000.png gfs-se-instant_ptype-2458400.png gfs-se-instant_ptype-2436800.png gfs-se-instant_ptype-2415200.png
 
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Ollie Williams

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#8
Okay, We have the first "Snowy" Eps (Euro Ensemble members) to plot snow over the southeast outside of the mountains, primarily central North Carolina. I haven't kept up with the Euro most recently so the plots will go a few runs back
#1 12z October 17, 2019
Member #50
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2609600.png
#2 00z, October 18th, 2019
#27
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2652800.png
Same run as above
#17
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-2652800.png
#3 Strongest one yet
12z October 18, 2019
#32
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2696000.png
 

Ollie Williams

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#9
00z GEFS 10/21
Member #4
I believe this is the first run to advertise more than an Inch in NC, It plots about 2 inches across parts of NC (Not much greater but still)

**No Graphic Below**

 
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Ollie Williams

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#11
Monday October 28th 00z
I've been noticing quite an interesting signal as we go ahead into the end of the month. Overall from this run, nice cutoff low, NS low propagated down from the +PNA. System ends up bringing some ZR to parts on NC. I would be surprised if we saw any wintery wx, but still interesting setup

C5C6E4E8-BE45-4A65-B7FC-7E4CB3077DB0.png
 
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Ollie Williams

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#12
I'll repost this in the Archive thread but, the Euro has Its first run mean with snow into the SE. Definitely skewed by member #5, in fact, that's the only member with anything but still, Interesting pattern as we go-ahead into mid-November... for cold rain.

View attachment 24995
 
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Ollie Williams

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#13
Believe It or not
10/28 18z
Today marks the first day of the GEFS mean not being 0 over central NC, at least by the College of Dupage ensemble algorithm, It's free: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/.

After Weatherbell upgraded their site, they added a new algorithm that perfectly deviates between snow and sleet and actually uses a better mean algorithm altogether.
Wxbell

COD
View attachment 25007
Members For some #11 is the best we've had all season
View attachment 25006
 

Ollie Williams

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#15
Thursday, October 31st, 2019 12z Euro and EPS

I do want to Note 2 things.
The Euro data is much more Colder with the wintery system.
1. Before you freak out I just want to let you all know that this is just a model and you don't need to call 911... but we officially have our first Euro run with snow into NC outside the mountains. Yes, that is CLT in the blue. If only there were more precip. At least we got cold air


2. The EPS agrees with a decrease in 850s and a much more consolidated trough at H5. When Comparing snow, 00z had
2 members in Central NC 12z has 6.
H5 comparison at HR 216
00z

12z

850 Comparison
00z

12z
 

Ollie Williams

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#18
Is there an "archive" other than Wiki? An archive thread? If so, I've missed it ... can you send me a link, if there is one?

BTW - feel free to archive my archive in the archive ... LOL ...
Lol. You're looking at the archive right now. I'm just posting model and winter firsts as we head into the season.
 

Ollie Williams

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#21

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Ollie Williams

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