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Misc Winter 2019/2020 Model Archive

Ollie Williams

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Hopefully, this is an appropriate thread, I saw the MA forum doing this and thought it was a good idea. Mods/Admins feel free to delete this

The purpose of this thread would be to organize all the wintery models in this thread so we can get excited about all the model "firsts"
Essentially :Weenie::Weenie: freak out that you can't be penalized for. I know that is what the fall Whamby is for and our many, many other threads, however, this would be nice for future winters to keep track of how far in advance we've gotten.

GEFS 18z 10/5/2019
The First Ensemble-member (#3) for snow over central NC from GSO to RDU. Here's an RDU Meteogram
Edit: The next time this will happen is, 10/10 18z GEFS M5

gfs-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-1680800.png
output_tt8gU0.gif
gfs-KRDU-indiv_snow-0298400.png

GEFS 06z 10/11
Nice ensemble member into texas #19 @Brent does this make it to your backyard?

18z 10/11 I believe this is the first member to make it into GA/AL that I know of at least outside of the much higher elevations #8


GEFS 06z 10/13
Here is tonight's ensemble member report, Quite a member #15, Large snow across east TN and the First member to make it to Bham. Even though It's just a dusting, there does seem to be a dusting as well over Mack, Jimmy and maybe Shetley in NW SC. I believe CLT gets some flurries on #18

I almost forgot @Brent this run you get 2 members, Lucky Duck ;)



GEFS 06z 10/14
GEFS member #18 #19 #15 gives central NC snow, the most so far.


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
 
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Ollie Williams

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12z 10/14
Surprisingly a strong consensus on all the LR ensemble means for a nice pattern, too bad it's 300hrs+
GEFS, EPS, GEPS.


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
 
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Ollie Williams

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10/15 12z & 18z
@Fountainguy97 posted this in the Winter Discussion thread, however, just to reiterate we now may see the first wintery ZR accumulations throughout some of the higher elevations of NC

As far as the GEFS members, nice fantasy storm #19 at 12z

Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**

 
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Ollie Williams

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10/16 18z GFS
Forecast 8:00am- 2:00-pm October 30th, 2019
Second operational run to snow over MBY and central NC.
Pretty good to see 2 FV3 runs to show snow in the SE 3 runs apart :rolleyes:

Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**




Definitely cold air there
 
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Ollie Williams

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GFS 00z 10/16
Valid: 2:00am-8:00pm October 30th 2019

I didn't see 00z, just posting some maps for the Archive
The first model to anticipate snow over the SE
It's a cold chasing moisture setup so It won't work

gfs-nc-total_snow_10to1-2566400.png gfs-conus-z500_anom-2480000.png
Wxbell Mimic 21z Tue 29 Oct 2019.png
gfs-se-instant_ptype-2415200.png
gfs-se-instant_ptype-2436800.png gfs-se-instant_ptype-2458400.png
Wxbell Mimic 00z Thu 31 Oct 2019.png
 
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Ollie Williams

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Okay, We have the first "Snowy" Eps (Euro Ensemble members) to plot snow over the southeast outside of the mountains, primarily central North Carolina. I haven't kept up with the Euro most recently so the plots will go a few runs back
#1 12z October 17, 2019
Member #50
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2609600.png
#2 00z, October 18th, 2019
#27
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2652800.png
Same run as above
#17
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-2652800.png
#3 Strongest one yet
12z 10/18, 2019
#32
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2696000.png
 
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Ollie Williams

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00z GEFS 10/21
Member #4
I believe this is the first run to advertise more than an Inch in NC, It plots about 2 inches across parts of NC (Not much greater but still)


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**

 
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Ollie Williams

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GFS 12z 10/26
Very close call for a snowy run, nice setup, but it just doesn't do it.


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
 
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Ollie Williams

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Monday October 28th 00z
I've been noticing quite an interesting signal as we go ahead into the end of the month. Overall from this run, nice cutoff low, NS low propagated down from the +PNA. System ends up bringing some ZR to parts on NC. I would be surprised if we saw any wintery wx, but still interesting setup


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**

C5C6E4E8-BE45-4A65-B7FC-7E4CB3077DB0.png
 
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Ollie Williams

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EPS 10/28
Euro has Its first run mean with snow into the SE. Definitely skewed by member #5, in fact, that's the only member with anything but still, Interesting pattern as we go-ahead into mid-November... for cold rain.
ecmwf-conus-z500_anom_1day-3495200.png
 
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Ollie Williams

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10/28 18z
Today marks the first day of the GEFS mean not being 0 over central NC, at least by the College of Dupage ensemble algorithm, It's free: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/.

After Weatherbell upgraded their site, they added a new algorithm that perfectly deviates between snow and sleet and actually uses a better mean algorithm altogether.
GEFSMA_prec_meansnacc_378.png
Members For some #11 is the best we've had all season
gfs-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-3668000.png
 
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Ollie Williams

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EPS & Euro 12z 10/31

I do want to Note 2 things.
The Euro data is much more Colder with the wintery system.
1. Before you freak out I just want to let you all know that this is just a model and you don't need to call 911... but we officially have our first Euro run with snow into NC outside the mountains. Yes, that is CLT in the blue. If only there were more precip. At least we got cold air


2. The EPS agrees with a decrease in 850s and a much more consolidated trough at H5. When Comparing snow, 00z had
2 members in Central NC 12z has 6.
H5 comparison at HR 216
00z

12z

850 Comparison
00z

12z
 
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Ollie Williams

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Is there an "archive" other than Wiki? An archive thread? If so, I've missed it ... can you send me a link, if there is one?

BTW - feel free to archive my archive in the archive ... LOL ...
Lol. You're looking at the archive right now. I'm just posting model and winter firsts as we head into the season.
 

Ollie Williams

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11/2 Model Runs (1/2)
GEFS 00z
Some very nice model solutions, highest mean yet. It backs off at 06z

most noteworthy members

Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**

e members 2.PNG ensemble members 1.PNG
12z and 18z
Pretty self-explanatory
12z



18z
 
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Ollie Williams

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11/2 Model Runs (1/2)
GEFS 00z
Some very nice model solutions, highest mean yet. It backs off at 06z

most noteworthy members
View attachment 25233View attachment 25235
12z and 18z
Pretty self-explanatory
12z



18z
11/3 (2/2)
Snow
The system around hr 150
12z

18z


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**

gfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-3300800.png
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-sleet_total-3300800.png
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-frzr_total-3311600.png
The system from those uber low temps at H5
12z

18z
 

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Ollie Williams

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GFS-FV3 00z 11/3
I have some better hires maps to remember this run
output_1a70M8.gif 1F81AC4E-B1E2-4AB2-B7AC-321446585157.png 704BE2C2-0317-499A-B316-8BCD533A18CC.png
Euro Control 00z 11/3
ECMWF 00z Mon 18 Nov 2019.png


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
 
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Ollie Williams

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GFS-FV3 12z 11/3
GFS: Backing off, the only model that has support
Webp.net-gifmaker (15).gif
gfs_asnow_seus_32.png
Euro 12z 11/3
The first real snowy run, separate from the system above
output_OHQu1s.gif
ecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-3646400.png
Euro Control 12z 11/3
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-se-total_snow_10to1-4078400.png
500mb look


Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
 
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avlsnow

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