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Pattern Winter 2019/2020 Model Archive

Ollie Williams

Ollie Williams

It Gon' Rain
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
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Location
Raleigh, NC
Hopefully, this is an appropriate thread, I saw the MA forum doing this and thought it was a good idea. Mods/Admins feel free to delete this

The purpose of this thread would be to organize all the wintery models in this thread so we can get excited about all the model "firsts"
Essentially :Weenie::Weenie: freak out that you can't be penalized for. I know that is what the fall Whamby is for and our many, many other threads, however, this would be nice for future winters to keep track of how far in advance we've gotten.

18z GEFS 10/5/2019
The First Ensemble member (#3) for snow over central NC from GSO to RDU. Here's an RDU Meteogram
Edit: The next time this will happen is, 10/10 18z GEFS M5

gfs-se-snow_total_multimember_panel-1680800.png
output_tt8gU0.gif
gfs-KRDU-indiv_snow-0298400.png
 
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00z GFS 10/16
First Model run to forecast snow over the SE
gfs-nc-total_snow_10to1-2566400.pnggfs-conus-z500_anom-2480000.png
ezgif-5-5402b524e4.gif
 
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18z GFS 10/16
Second Run to Show Snow over Central NC


Update: 7/7/2020

**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**
 
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12z EPS 10/17
First Members with Snow in NC #50
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2609600.png
00z EPS 10
#27 and #17
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2652800.png
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-2652800.png
12z EPS 10/18
Member #32
ecmwf-se-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-2696000.png
 
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00z GFS 10/28
ZR Across much of NC

Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**

C5C6E4E8-BE45-4A65-B7FC-7E4CB3077DB0.png
 
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12z EPS 10/28
First run with mean in the SE (Skewed by #5)
1573560000-LldU3MTqSC0.png
1573560000-QO3Rb7dS8E8.png
 
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12z Euro 10/31
First Euro run with Snow in NC (Over CLT)
 
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18z GFS 11/2
Snow Across NC

Update: 7/7/2020
**Note Due to technical errors, some images may not be available**

gfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-3300800.png
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-sleet_total-3300800.png
gfs-deterministic-carolinas-frzr_total-3311600.png
 
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00z GFS-FV3 11/3
I have some better high-res maps to remember this run
output_1a70M8.gif1F81AC4E-B1E2-4AB2-B7AC-321446585157.png704BE2C2-0317-499A-B316-8BCD533A18CC.png
00z Euro Control 11/3
ECMWF 00z Mon 18 Nov 2019.png
0
 
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12z Euro 11/3
The first real snowy run, separate from the system above
output_OHQu1s.gif
ecmwf-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-3646400.png
Euro Control 12z 11/3
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-se-total_snow_10to1-4078400.png
 
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18z GFS 11/20
Congrats Brent
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-5655200.png
Our festive SER peeking inside
gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-5655200.png
gfs-deterministic-tx-total_snow_10to1-5655200.png
 
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18z GFS 12/1
Bowling Ball Clipper Across the SE
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1575223200-1576000800-1576108800-40.gifgfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-6087200.png
 
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06z GFS 12/2
A weak little storm along a SE front (1/2)
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1575266400-1575979200-1576108800-40.gifgfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-6195200.png
18z GFS 12/2
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1575309600-1576022400-1576119600-40.gifgfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-6152000.png
 
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GFS's Weenie Happy Hour (2/2)
GFS 18z 12/2/19

Setup: After a front makes its way through (shown above) a huge HP ridge gets stuck across the US. Ironically H5 looks horrible. Not the best pattern. The trouble comes when the shortwave gets dislodged in the SW.gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-6281600.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-6281600 (1).png

Precip maps: @Brent this one is for you
gfs-deterministic-scentus-instant_ptype-1575309600-1576195200-1576476000-40.gif
gfs-deterministic-tx-total_snow_10to1-6519200.pnggfs-deterministic-tx-frzr_total-6519200.pnggfs-deterministic-tx-sleet_total-6519200.png
SE View. HP Moved away, but still strong CAD. Nice to see GSP in the bullzye for once.
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1575309600-1576476000-1576605600-40.gifgfs-deterministic-se-frzr_total-6692000.pnggfs-deterministic-greenville-frzr_total-6692000.pnggfs-deterministic-se-sleet_total-6692000.png
 
00z 12/15
This storm would probably have much more if not due to convective feedback problems.
gfs-deterministic-nc-total_snow_10to1-7210400.pngezgif-1-39095b2a9ab6.gif
 
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