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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Winter cancel..

What are these called?
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I've seen some things flowering of late, odd because until today really it's been about normal after that stretch in January.

First really warm day in a couple weeks, and bam, those small ant hills are back. But really, right now, all I can think about is that probable freeze that's going to screw up those peaches.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I've seen some things flowering of late, odd because until today really it's been about normal after that stretch in January.

First really warm day in a couple weeks, and bam, those small ant hills are back. But really, right now, all I can think about is that probable freeze that's going to screw up those peaches.
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Did y'all actually have enough freezing hours this winter to bud out and make a crop?
 
pcbjr said:
Did y'all actually have enough freezing hours this winter to bud out and make a crop?
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My dad's told me it's chill hours below 40 degrees I think (and actually took note of them some before), if it's that, probably fine, if it is going to freezing or below, I don't know.

Don't think those have flowered though, it's something else I've seen. Some bushes down the road I think...
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
My dad's told me it's chill hours below 40 degrees I think (and actually took note of them some before), if it's that, probably fine, if it is going to freezing or below, I don't know.

Don't think those have flowered though, it's something else I've seen. Some bushes down the road I think...
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Yes, I've heard 45º and I've heard 35º and I've heard 32º, but the Ag Department then splits it between varieties ... so anyways ... hope y'all had enough chill hours, since I do tend to buy bushels and make ice cream!
 
Joe Blow has finally tossed the towel in for the SE! Speaking of the MJO

One thing it is not doing is showing any sign of the phases needed to lead to cold getting into the Southeast.

Basically it's going to be a war from Texas to New England, with loads of cold to the northwest of that area and early spring weather in the Southeast. As long as the pattern has contradictions, cold cannot overwhelm. The AO and NAO are strongly positive (except for today and tomorrow). This is the first time we have seen the WPO and EPO forecasted to be negative in tandem, which will bring in the cold, if the MJO does not swing into a strong Phase 6.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Joe Blow has finally tossed the towel in for the SE! Speaking of the MJO

One thing it is not doing is showing any sign of the phases needed to lead to cold getting into the Southeast.

Basically it's going to be a war from Texas to New England, with loads of cold to the northwest of that area and early spring weather in the Southeast. As long as the pattern has contradictions, cold cannot overwhelm. The AO and NAO are strongly positive (except for today and tomorrow). This is the first time we have seen the WPO and EPO forecasted to be negative in tandem, which will bring in the cold, if the MJO does not swing into a strong Phase 6.
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"if the MJO does not swing into a strong Phase 6."

Lol, that will probably happen given the Euro & GFS respective biases w/ the MJO when being initialized over the Maritime Continent.
 
... if we talk, for the next two weeks, about severe weather and flooding, we should be given back, in april, what we gave in February. Logical reasoning.. (not killer frost, I’m talking bring some damn snow)

This winter blows.
 
whatalife said:
Do we really want a 3rd straight El Nino.?.These last 2 haven't been all that kind to us.
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2019-20 isn't an official El Niño and overall is very weak and borderline. I wouldn't mind a stronger, legitimate El Niño if it means it could flip the pattern to -ENSO by 2021 and get us out of this borderline Niño "stalemate" we've been in since mid-2018.
 
CyclonicFury said:
2019-20 isn't an official El Niño and overall is very weak and borderline. I wouldn't mind a stronger, legitimate El Niño if it means it could flip the pattern to -ENSO by 2021 and get us out of this borderline Niño "stalemate" we've been in since mid-2018.
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The jury is still out as regards whether or not it will barely end up as an official El Niño in the ONI based table. That requires 5 +0.5+ trimonths in a row for Niño 3.4. Regardless, the characteristics of the current winter have had a combo of El Niño (wet parts of SE like ATL) and La Niña (warmth thanks largely to strong SER much of winter with the often accompanying negative AAM). I’d love to lose these La Niña characteristics, which is what happened in most of 1/19-31 thus finally giving the SE more wintry conditions thanks at least in part to a solid +AAM.

So, in this way, it has acted like a neutral ENSO with it being a hybrid of sorts.

In the bigger picture, it would help imo if the Maritime Continent and nearby areas would finally cool down relative to surrounding areas so as to reduce the frequency of days within MJO phases 4 and 5. The correlation of a warmer Indonesia and vicinity leading to a larger % of time within phases 4 and 5 was written up in a recent paper and I was able to back this up by looking at the hard MJO data for winters. Of course, it would also be nice if overall GW were to reverse some but I know that’s wishful thinking right now.

*Edited
 
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I'm going to call the pattern we have been in the El Noneya. It means no matter what you are going to get warm rain / dry cold intervals. And nothing can stop an El Noneya in the South.
 
J.C. said:
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Looking more closely, it was a tale of two half months with the first 16 days of a mega-torch (+11) and the last 15 days actually slightly BN (-2)!
I’d look to the AAM chart below for a good illustration. Note that there was a -AAM up til ~1/16 followed by a solid +AAM the rest of the month. Coincidence? I don’t think so as -AAM is correlated with warmth SER/-PNA influence/La Ninalike pattern while +AAM is correlated with the opposite/El Ninolike colder pattern. Also, note on the same chart that the -AAM is forecasted to let up toward midmonth and potentially even go back to a +AAM soon thereafter:
0263BF99-7101-44CD-95C7-F2196C67B049.png
 
I guess this means we drown Thursday?
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