I actually found it to be a good presentation because I liked how he overlaid the location of the MJO on the SSTs. For those who didn’t watch, he explained that the Indonesian and vicinity SSTs (location of phases 4 and 5) have warmed in 2019 more than other areas, which he’s attributing to a lack of clouds/rain. Not only are those warmer SSTs leading to the Australian heat, but also they’re about to intensify the amp of MJO phases 4/5 (likely to at least 4th and possibly as strong as 2nd strongest on record for winter!).
He also talked about the recent move through inside COD phases 8/1 and how it cooled off quite a bit from where it had been thanks to upper troughs even though it didn’t get real cold. Looking at KATL: after having a torch of +15 12/23-30 (one of warmest on record for then), it has since cooled considerably to ~+6 for 12/31-1/4. He also predicted that after the warmth that will occur with strong phases 4/5, the cold air will be able to push SE assuming it goes into the left side COD (~1/20) instead of looping back too sharply. He did say the MW/Lakes/NE would cool but that he was undecided about the SE for that initial cold. For the rest of winter, he feels good about the warmth not returning to the E US in a dominating way. So, he really didn’t hint that winter was over for the SE even though he wasn’t as confident about it getting cold in the SE initially once 4/5 pass. He thinks the SE would have a better chance to get cold if the MJO hooks further left to just outside the COD late in Jan. (Personally, I don’t think it needs to be outside the COD to possibly get cold in the SE based on research I’ve done.)
In the meantime, enjoy your cold front as it’s the only one you’ve got. Getting nice and cool in ATL already and is spreading SE. The rest of the weekend will be chilly. Also, Mon-Thu overall will average pretty seasonable with some cold nights thanks to an additional cold front. So, compared to that absolute torch of 12/23-30, it is far better the next 5 days. So, enjoy it.
