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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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accu35 said:
Dont give up man, we will see something soon
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At no one point have I even considered giving up or waffled even a little bit on when I expected the pattern to change in late January (Jan 25-30). If I feel like there's a significant change in my thinking going forward, I'll be sure to let everyone know. It honestly sucks we couldn't get a storm in early January but the period was highlighted several weeks in advance by myself as one of interest and had the potential to produce a storm, which it nearly did in NC.

The calls for "winter is over" are nothing short of premature, short-sighted, and are setting those individuals up for failure. When you look at who's saying these things and their track record, you shouldn't be the least bit surprised.

This is from a week and a half ago on Dec 29th:

"It usually takes about 10-15 days for the pattern to turn favorable following West Pacific forcing in the heart of winter, hence my call for the pattern to turn yet again around roughly January 25-30"

"January 25 thru early Feb: .... A more favorable pattern for wintry weather returns to the SE US, potentially persisting into at least early February."

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-22#post-224235
 
It’s great to see the LR modeling indicating a much needed pattern change and I’m optimistic that the pattern will shift to a more favorable one. But I will keep my expectations in check until these changes show up inside 7-10 days.
 
WxWatch said:
Ouch, 0z GEFS shows the ridge holding it's place over the east by the 20th. Highly doubt there will be any winter storm chances with this. Winter is over far as I'm concerned. This sucks!
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It’s a shame some are still putting faith in the Gfs and it’s ensemble .. look at the EURO and it’s ensembles which have a 10x better track record .. pattern change shows up Jan 18-25 ... cmon guys we know better
 
WxWatch said:
Ouch, 0z GEFS shows the ridge holding it's place over the east by the 20th. Highly doubt there will be any winter storm chances with this. Winter is over far as I'm concerned. This sucks!
20c8e0a9757195e9fcc1b02b546bc898.jpg


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Don’t fall for it man...... we have a long way to go before winter is over
 
accu35 said:
Wow!!! I've never seen you get like this lol. Winter isn't over my friend, just a bad run. As long as we can score before the 20th, which is possible rest of winter can do want it wants
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Exactly!!! Thank you.
 
I know and fully believe that this warmth can’t last the whole winter and I also know that the majority of y’all saying winter is over are in for a surprise when winter does come back
 
cd2play said:
Fair weather fan. Lol
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I was being sarcastic btw. But honestly that MJO look is what I saw coming a week or two back. I think she looped last year as well. That’s a bad look if you want winter weather in the SE. I’ll still hope for a 5-10 day period but that’s all at this point.


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NoSnowATL said:
I did add maybe to it. You know I can’t leave.


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Lol. I would definitely give it time. No need to get worried about the MJO since it could go back towards better phases or stay in the COD which is better than where it is now.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I really disagree with what the GFS is showing. I think the pattern favors cold rain but can’t rule out ice on metal objects or trees. It’s way to warm this winter and only gonna scorch more this weekend combined with a wet ground that keeps getting wetter. None of this supports major winter wx accumulations on roads or really any depth to it without melting.
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What's the point of grasping straws this so called fantasy system showing any type of frozen during the Jan 16-18 period (which is 9 to 11 days away) will change consistently closer to verification time which would be an all rain event... Oh so far every rain system that showed up in the long range has nearly verified 99.9 percent of the time I'm probably wrong just my opinion..... This has been a warm and wet winter
 
Tbh I have some mild interest in that time period now but we all have to remember last year. Last year on this model that's running now showed about 1000000 winter storms and only the "December storm" worked out. It ran too cold, the heights would be too low (in this case, we'd need to watch the 50/50 low though and see what it does), and it'd modify.

Probably going to have to watch it for at least 5 more days, minimum. I guess some good news in my head there is I did see the GFS win on a CAD solution a few months ago where it showed the CAD for days before it happened, and if the general ideas hold it might get colder.

But for whatever it's worth, the 2004 ice storm I experienced didn't exactly have a cold lead up from what I see in the history. It wasn't very warm, but it wasn't cold either and it still caused problems (although at least in my county the mistake was not cancelling school).
 
accu35 said:
Wow!!! I've never seen you get like this lol. Winter isn't over my friend, just a bad run. As long as we can score before the 20th, which is possible rest of winter can do want it wants
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I hate having a negative attitude. It's just annoying soon as we get into January (favorable month for winter storms) the pattern goes right into a warm pattern. It seems like that's the story every year. Something always screwing up the pattern. It's like why is it that it's always warm patterns that happen and not colder patterns but yet it's winter?
Nick_boynton_ said:
It’s a shame some are still putting faith in the Gfs and it’s ensemble .. look at the EURO and it’s ensembles which have a 10x better track record .. pattern change shows up Jan 18-25 ... cmon guys we know better
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We better hope there will be that pattern change like seriously. Even though I'm tired of doing all of this wishing and hoping, which I'm sure others are too. When are we going to get an actual legitimate winter storm to track?

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