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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

These models are actually terrible past 5 days. Fell completely apart last night at 0z but they actually went partially back the other way, better, at 6z. Back and forth , back and forth. Its almost like you just have to wait which direction they fall in the end and hope, that for once, they fall our way. The skill 5 days + is abysmal. Time is running short though so we do need to have things trending our way by Tuesday or so to even be in a position to score.
 
Aren't the changes we need to see re: Pacific at 72hrs now? Still no high confidence there for even that?
 
After day 10 this is probably it for most outside foothills/mtns. Unless the ensembles are wrong it would be after the first week of March before we could see a better pattern.


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I woke up and checked whamby and saw it eas over. Then I checked the February thread and thought it was over. Then I kept scrolling the February thread and it appears we’re back on. Then I checked the updated whamby again and it appears it’s over again. I’m an emotional wreck.
 
tazaroo said:
These models are actually terrible past 5 days. Fell completely apart last night at 0z but they actually went partially back the other way, better, at 6z. Back and forth , back and forth. Its almost like you just have to wait which direction they fall in the end and hope, that for once, they fall our way. The skill 5 days + is abysmal. Time is running short though so we do need to have things trending our way by Tuesday or so to even be in a position to score.
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I always think of the "butterfly effect". I am sure there is a better term for it in meteorology but think about how many times you see a forecast bust inside of 24 hours. Temp 5 degrees colder/warmer than forecast, double the rainfall, half the rainfall, etc...
Then these models have to attempt to digest all of these changes(forecast busts) all over the globe and extrapolate it 5..7...10+ days. I keep hoping AI/machine learning will clean it up but so far not so much. The biggest advancement I have seen in the last 15 yrs is computer processing power...so we arrive at the wrong answer much quicker!?
 
This is the latest GEFS ext from the 18th, after we get our 6-10" event, through March 10th.

If we gonna post the weenie ones we got to post the sucky ones.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I woke up and checked whamby and saw it eas over. Then I checked the February thread and thought it was over. Then I kept scrolling the February thread and it appears we’re back on. Then I checked the updated whamby again and it appears it’s over again. I’m an emotional wreck.
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I checked the models and was like things look reasonable still and then the sentiment in here was fairly bearish. I must have missed something overnight.
 
Better days.

Georgia Weather History for February 11th​

In 2014, the beginnings of what was to become a historical storm began impacting the state. This storm came in two waves, the first coming on this date. Between 2 and 5 inches of snow fell north of a Rome to Gainesville line. South of this line a mixture of rain, sleet and snow fell but with little impact at that time. The second wave came the next day, February 12th. For more information on this storm, view the event summary.
 
KyloG said:
I checked the models and was like things look reasonable still and then the sentiment in here was fairly bearish. I must have missed something overnight.
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The most frustrating part for me is that this is no longer a traditional overrunning setup. And it looked so good a few days ago. The overall storm setup is not checking a lot of the boxes for me anymore
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The most frustrating part for me is that this is no longer a traditional overrunning setup. And it looked so good a few days ago. The overall storm setup is not checking a lot of the boxes for me anymore
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Yep. Before, it was a classic HP in place with a 50/50 low and cold in place with a trailing wave, which has far more breathing room. Now we are relying on a timely phase. Most likely won’t work out imo our luck is to bad for that
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Before, it was a classic HP in place with a 50/50 low and cold in place with a trailing wave, which has far more breathing room. Now we are relying on a timely phase. Most likely won’t work out imo our luck is to bad for that
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Yeah it’s unfortunate. NS and west coast coast are way too active. Imagine this setup with a 1041 high pressure bridge back into the Arctic. When the Sierra Nevadas are racking up feet on feet on feet 9/10 that doesn’t bode well for anyone along the east coast.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The most frustrating part for me is that this is no longer a traditional overrunning setup. And it looked so good a few days ago. The overall storm setup is not checking a lot of the boxes for me anymore
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It's never easy when years it doesn't snow....and that seems to be a habit lately.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah it’s unfortunate. NS and west coast coast are way too active. Imagine this setup with a 1041 high pressure bridge back into the Arctic. When the Sierra Nevadas are racking up feet on feet on feet 9/10 that doesn’t bode well for anyone along the east coast.
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Yeah. At least H5 looks prettier on recent runs though I suppose. Nice to see the western ridging coming back, but me personally im starting to get beat down and starting to want spring more and more. Can’t beat days like yesterday
 
KyloG said:
It's never easy when years it doesn't snow....and that seems to be a habit lately.
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It has to snow though. The ingredients have been there. Just at the wrong times. And it snowed at like 9 degrees in Alabama and Mississippi this winter. And Death Valley gets snow. It can snow. It will snow again. A lot of snow
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah. At least H5 looks prettier on recent runs though I suppose. Nice to see the western ridging coming back, but me personally im starting to get beat down and starting to want spring more and more. Can’t beat days like yesterday
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Would be nice if we can get the period just after this storm to flip to give us a decent shot into the end of February. By March 1 I’m over it.
 
It's just how the climate works now, especially outside the mountains in NC. The cold comes when it's dry, and then it warms up and rains, dries out and gets colder again. We just can't get the cold and precip to match up. It's been this way for the last few years, and snow chances are getting less and less. Just have to come to terms with it. We will have more severe threats in winter than winter storm threats. That's probably what we should look forward to following now instead of snow.
 
Just to level set for my own understanding--We are not even sure of the pattern out west in 72hrs correct? That's not very good weather modeling in my estimation
 
KyloG said:
Well, the good news is the GFS/ICON/CMC all failed in different ways, there isn't model agreement on our failure yet...we are spraying the bullseye now.

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Enjoy the models. It’s the only models you’ve got
 
Stevo24 said:
Looking down the barrel of 3 straight snowless years soon.
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For Raleigh this will be back to back winters without even a trace. Last, this happened was winters of 1991, 1992 and before that, I think it was like the 40's.

We haven't ever gone 3 winters without a trace...?

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