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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Snowlover87 said:
It’s kind of depressing to depend on a month where the avg temps increase a good bit and the sun angle is rapidly increasing.
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The sun angle always pisses me off with late season storms. Not only is it a big impediment to daytime accumulations when temperatures are near freezing (which they almost always are during snowstorms around here), especially on paved surfaces, but it also scorches any snowfall that occurs so quickly after the storm. In sunny areas, 6” of snow can be extinguished in a single afternoon in March. ?
 
superjames1992 said:
The sun angle always pisses me off with late season storms. Not only is it a big impediment to daytime accumulations when temperatures are near freezing (which they almost always are during snowstorms around here), especially on paved surfaces, but it also scorches any snowfall that occurs so quickly after the storm. In sunny areas, 6” of snow can be extinguished in a single afternoon in March. ?
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Late season storms can be fun but dont expect the snow to stick around very long. At least this time of year the sun doesnt have as much strength to melt the snow away.
 
Snowlover87 said:
Late season storms can be fun but dont expect the snow to stick around very long. At least this time of year the sun doesnt have as much strength to melt the snow away.
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I’ll always take snow in December and January if I can get it because the sun is less of an issue and the days are shorter, but unfortunately beggars can’t be choosers, and we are definitely beggars in this region of the country lol.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
He's got to be just joking, or speaking out of frustration. No way would I even hang it up this early in the south. He's in Boston. Can't hang it up there until mid March
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I think its just the fact that there isn't any cold air anywhere, but there is no way they don't score numerous times in that area before March.
 
superjames1992 said:
The sun angle always pisses me off with late season storms. Not only is it a big impediment to daytime accumulations when temperatures are near freezing (which they almost always are during snowstorms around here), especially on paved surfaces, but it also scorches any snowfall that occurs so quickly after the storm. In sunny areas, 6” of snow can be extinguished in a single afternoon in March. ?
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All true. You really notice the difference as you travel North.
 
CaryWx said:
Hanging up winter on Dec 28th? Bit odd and doubt I would do this in the worst of winters...and I do throw in the towel earlier than most of you. :)
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Very strange. Why would anyone hang it up prior to the coldest month of the winter? Still have high hopes for, at the very least mid to late January. And of course there's February too....lol.
 
weatherfide said:
That would be some significant snow pack to the north if correct. One of the key ingredients for a better second half of January, first of February.
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Yep. Lets get some Midwest, lakes, and NE/MA snow cover and you guys will be in business.
 
weatherfide said:
That would be some significant snow pack to the north if correct. One of the key ingredients for a better second half of January, first of February.
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I would like to get the consistent snowpack a little further south into the Ohio Valley. I don't care about snowpack in the Northeast or Mid Atlantic as that doesn't really impact us.
 
weatherfide said:
That would be some significant snow pack to the north if correct. One of the key ingredients for a better second half of January, first of February.
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There has to be some substantial cold to keep it there. I know snow acts as its own cooler, but damn we need some cold.
 
SnowNiner said:
Everything is going EXACTLY according to plan......until it's supposed to snow in the southeast, then everything that can go wrong will. lol.
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So, Troutman is in Iredell County, right? You're in a pretty good spot to see snow this Winter imo.
 
MB22 said:
So, Troutman is in Iredell County, right? You're in a pretty good spot to see snow this Winter imo.
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Yep, hope so. Being 30 miles north of CLT helped me in Jan 2022, I got a good thump of snow/sleet when CLT got less. 2018 I got in on the December snow for about 6 inches. Snow/rain line seems to be following me up 77 though...lol.
 
Brent said:
But I thought the climate didn't support snow anymore anyway so what's the surprise ?
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Yeah we (the east coast) have had so much snow and awesome patterns lately I can't imagine why anyone would be upset about it not snowing in the east. I mean we're only about 50% of our average over the last 5 years but the snow drought is just made up.
 
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I read on another forum that strong El-Nino winters are typically backloaded yet in the 1997-98 winter all of our snow came in December.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't care whether there's snow pack to the northwest or not, tbh. I mean, it's more of a + than a - for sure, but we've had many snowstorms in the southeast where there wasn't abundant antecedent snow cover to the northwest. What we actually need is legitimate cold air up in Canada. Not above normal anomaly Canada cold, but legitimate cold air. And we need a high pressure to drop down and feed it in. Above normal (for their area) chilly air to our northwest isn't the best way to snow here. And it's not the best way to keep a snowpack around in the Midwest either.

Our climate is warming. We all know this. Average temps are going up. We have more above normal winters (temp-wise) than below. Snowfall averages are dropping. Now, you can make the argument that, well, a few decades back in the mid-1900s exaggerated our averages, and that's fine. But a warming climate is absolutely NOT conducive to more and/or easier snow here.

What is also happening (which is the reason our winters have been warmer here) is that something about the climate cycle we're in now is creating more of a propensity for a mixture of western troughing and a strong Pac jet. Whatever state ENSO is in, we seem to end up with bad MJO, PNA, and NAO phases throughout the winter. The strat never helps either.

Maybe we're just going through a few bad luck years. I mean Shane posted a snow graphic the other day going back to 1800 BC or something, and it showed clusters of good and bad winters, so maybe we're good. But I know we all follow this stuff every year and almost without exception, we have to punt December and then January and then hope for a good February (and by the way, late February into March is pretty much game over for most of the Southeast - it didn't used to be, but it almost always is now). We can't be in a strong El Nino every year. So there must be a reason for this (and I think we did have a pretty cold December last year). We see the NAO stay neutral or positive. We see the PNA stay negative. We see the MJO spending 80% of the winter in 3-6. Why is that? Something is driving this. Until whatever it is changes, I don't see how we can expect anything different than above normal temps in the winter, on average. Maybe we get an anomalous exception to this once every 5-10 years, but it definitely would be an exception.

Anyway, all it takes is one well-timed event to hit the average. I don't think anybody should give up on that possibility at this point. And historically speaking (whether you can go by historical norms or not in today's climate is a topic for another time), El Ninos offer the highest probabilities for snowfall here. But until we see legitimate cold actually showing up in Canada, followed by a mechanism to drive it into the Southeast, it's really hard to be enthusiastic about winter storm chances outside of a narrow area. I think we'll have a shot, regardless of snow cover. But we need to see the cold start showing up first. Otherwise, we're talking about a very, very tiny eye of the needle to thread.

There are and always will be exceptions to every rule. As good as we are at research and getting masters degrees and all of that, there is a lot more about the weather and climate that we don't understand than what we do understand. So, we will hope for the best and hope that the next series of better winters are either upon us or just around the corner, and we will try and continue to learn something along the way and resist the temptation to jump off the cliff just because a variable or two isn't in our favor right this moment.
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TLDR but congratulations or I'm sorry for your loss.
 
Billypg70 said:
RainCold this proves why u are one of the posters that I pay close attention too when it comes to reading the models, Patterns, & Future Tea Leaves.
Best post I've seen in many years not just on this board but many boards.
Thank you for your common sense and cautious realism while trying to spin it in a positive way.

I've thought this for many years.
Maybe there's something more sinister going on with our sensible weather.
Seems to me that the Earth still has plenty of cold in the Winter in the NH,
Seemingly constantly in Eurasia every single season now.

Was the Entire NH in the freezer in the 60-80's ?
I'm not sure Bc their wasn't any National 24/7 Weather stations till the Early to Mid 80's.
Even then they rarely talked about things outside of The Lower 48 or occasionally the North American continent if it was going to have downstream effects on the weather in the lower 48.

So maybe it's just the case that those years NA was very cold and Eurasia was warm.
Idk,
I've already wondered as much.
Maybe this is just a cycle.
Or maybe their is some kind of weather modification going on,
By forcing the NSJet to do things it wouldn't do otherwise.
I know I'm going to be called a Conspiracy Theorist.
I always believed that Nations Govs around the world saw value in being able to control at least certain aspects of the weather...
Including our own.
Does this mean it's definitely taking place? Of course not,
But I'm not so naive to believe that their not many trying to do so.
Btw I do whole heartily believe in Climate change.
I just thing there's more going on than meets the eye.

Here's to looking at the clown & funny faces this will cause.
I pray we all get the winterstorm of the century before this winter is over.
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Rain Cold is one of the most realistic ones on here. Sure you'll probably get clown faces by the clowns for even bringing up climate change. It doesn't register to some. You know it snowed big in 2018 in Central NC so there must not be a lack of snow. Or you know it never snowed much in the 80s in south Alabama , or wherever that guy is from. So therefore it must not have snowed much up here either and our memory is just flawed and this is not new. Regardless of what the records show.

To not acknowledge that it's different, at least here in the upstate up thru CLT to RDU over the last 30 years is absurd. Whether it's just a cycle or whether the AGW crowd is right is anyone's guess. There were bad times back in the day sure. From about 1930 to 1960 winters here were pretty bad. But in that timeframe there were also several double digit years. Something we haven't seen now in 30 years.

I do notice 30 year cycles though. 1900 to 1930 was pretty good. 1930 to 1960 was bad. But no worse than now. 1960 to 1990 was awesome. So if we truly are just in a bad cycle it should go the other way soon. Actually anytime now. But I'm not holding my breath. But good luck to us all in Jan and Feb.
 
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