Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[Brick Tamland]

24 straight hours of snow on the nam... Ill take that

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Even if most of it doesn't stick that will be nice to see.

 

[RBR71]

24 straight hours of snow on the nam... Ill take that

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I don't know what's worse getting nothing or 24 hours of snow with only 2" accumulation... lol

 

[Shawn]

on a side note. someone broke something. so the live thread will be delayed for a bit. but it's coming!

 

[WeatherWatch]

I would like to see what the 0z NAM is projecting when the time period gets within 48 hrs, and would like to see GFS on board as well. Maybe the 0z GFS suite will since the other models are on board that there could be snow across the region.

 

[whatalife]

I don't know what's worse getting nothing or 24 hours of snow with only 2" accumulation... lol

^^^THIS^^^


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[RollTide18]

Euro, GFS, and CMC runs are gonna be fun

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

It's becoming more and more evident that there will be some kind of an event for someone outside of the mountains. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to where that axis of heavy snowfall will set up. The rest of tonight's runs should be interesting. Stay tuned...

 

[whatalife]

It's becoming more and more evident that there will be some kind of an event for someone outside of the mountains. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to where that axis of heavy snowfall will set up. The rest of tonight's runs should be interesting. Stay tuned...

I’ll be going to bed after crazy uncle...LOL!


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[Parker]

I’m honestly just pumped as hell to be tracking a storm on December the 4th!!! If I get to see some flakes fall out of the sky, I’ll be super pumped, but when I start to see accumulation maps like posted above, then I get greedy.

 

[Tarheel1]

NAM is the new DGEX!

 

[SD]

I don't know what's worse getting nothing or 24 hours of snow with only 2" accumulation... lol

I'll just take it snowing after the last 2 winter's. I'm sure I'll find some way to be all IP lol

 

[Shawn]

Live thread has been turned on, please login (and you may have to refresh the page once) to enable it.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

This winter is only 4 days old and already better than the 11-12 winter in which we had absolutely nothing to track all winter.

 

[bouncycorn]

The setup kind of reminds me of 2014...

Also in 2014, FWIW, no model showed anything until the NAM.

 

[Webberweather53]

NAM still looks way too fast in general but it's a step in the right direction. Still have this little voice in the back of my head that keeps reminding me to not get too excited yet and that even inside day 2-3 this could trend into the mid Atlantic even if guidance is over or to our southeast in general

 

[RBR71]

This winter is only 4 days old and already better than the 11-12 winter in which we had absolutely nothing to track all winter.

This may just be one of your all time best post!

 

[ForsythSnow]

NAM still looks way too fast in general but it's a step in the right direction. Still have this little voice in the back of my head that keeps reminding me to not get too excited yet and that even inside day 2-3 this could trend into the mid Atlantic even if guidance is over or to our southeast in general

Yeah, have to keep that into consideration. Storms like this like the infamous NW trend and we are still days away. Things are changing and someone will be disappointed out of this no matter what I'm sure.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

What was that about the double E rule... if the ETA and the ECMWF are in agreement... take it to the bank. Thinking I got NAM’d... and being in the bullseye... ugh... with that said... i would love not to have to teach Friday!!!

 

[Mitch West]

For my Columbia, SC friends, when you see the maps your minds may be blown. Don't fall for it. 850 go > 0c when the heavier stuff gets here as the low starts going and tracking closer to the coast.

So are you saying Columbia doesn't have a chance or that we switch to heavy wet snow?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

But David Chandley said no snow! Don’t believe the rumors! Fake News!

 

[Brent]

Haha the nam such fake news

 

[deltadog03]

NAM still looks way too fast in general but it's a step in the right direction. Still have this little voice in the back of my head that keeps reminding me to not get too excited yet and that even inside day 2-3 this could trend into the mid Atlantic even if guidance is over or to our southeast in general

Very good point

 

[WeatherWatch]

If the 0z GFS tonight projects of what the NAM, CMC, Euro, EPS is suggesting. I'll be ramping up my accumulation snowfall up to 50% across of where the likely area's that will see accumulation in GA. If the trend continues 2 days prior of the time period, I'll ramp it up to 80%.

 

[Stormlover]

Gonna be hard to get clipper action S of TN, IMO

we'll be fine here in the northernmost counties of Ala from it....I expect the higher elevations to get some accumulation, probably a dusting in lower elevations

 

[Snowfan]

But that was a gooooooooooooood run!

 

[Shawn]

So are you saying Columbia doesn't have a chance or that we switch to heavy wet snow?

It would be a mixed, gross bag, before a switch over to a lighter event as the low pressure pulls away. The majority of the heavy snowfall that accumulates per the 00z NAM would be to our North and West. While the maps show accumulation of a 10:1 ratio through hour 84 here, it's sleet.

Let me show you an example from a map that takes 850 mb temps mostly being above freezing into account:

As you can see, barring a little bit more after hour 84, you can see the majority of the snowfall is well away from CAE on this run due to temperature issues.

 

[Stormlover]

Haha the nam such fake news

man, you are debbie downer so far with anything that comes along

 

[whatalife]

People better tamper their excitement for at last another day. This could go south on us in a not so positive way...


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[NorthGaWinter4]

People better tamper their excitement for at last another day. This could go south on us in a not so positive way...


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We know. We’ve all been there

 

[whatalife]

We know. We’ve all been there

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[RollTide18]

People better tamper their excitement for at last another day. This could go south on us in a not so positive way...


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That is true but man, it's hard not to get excited.

 

[Stormdoc]

Interested to see if the GFS follow suit as far as the moisture stream more so than the location of exact features

 

[Mitch West]

It would be a mixed, gross bag, before a switch over to a lighter event as the low pressure pulls away. The majority of the heavy snowfall that accumulates per the 00z NAM would be to our North and West. While the maps show accumulation of a 10:1 ratio through hour 84 here, it's sleet.

Let me show you an example from a map that takes 850 mb temps mostly being above freezing into account:

As you can see, barring a little bit more after hour 84, you can see the majority of the snowfall is well away from CAE on this run due to temperature issues.

That’s painful how close that is... which is normally how it always is around here. Hopefully some more favorable things happen in our favor. That’s ridiculously close to heavy wet snow.

 

[Tarheel1]

People better tamper their excitement for at last another day. This could go south on us in a not so positive way...


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Have you been here the last 3 winters!!?

 

[whatalife]

Have you been here the last 3 winters!!?

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[Shawn]

That’s painful how close that is... which is normally how it always is around here. Hopefully some more favorable things happen in our favor. That’s ridiculously close to heavy wet snow.

Here is the raw output from the 00z NAM for Columbia, SC. All rain through hour 84:

 Station ID: KCAE Lat:   33.94 Long:  -81.11                                                       
 NAM Model Run:  0Z  5DEC 2017 Cloud base and tops are now agl
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
   0 12/05 00Z   55     46      85       1    0.00  0.00    558    580    7.2 -14.1 1025   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
   3 12/05 03Z   55     46      72       3    0.00  0.00    559    580    8.1 -13.6 1025  71       059BKN071    0.0   15.0
   6 12/05 06Z   52     46      65       3    0.00  0.00    559    579    8.4 -13.5 1024  44       042SCT065    0.0   15.0
   9 12/05 09Z   51     46      52       2    0.00  0.00    560    579    8.6 -13.3 1023  64       027BKN334    0.0   15.0
  12 12/05 12Z   53     47     132       1    0.00  0.00    559    579    8.8 -12.7 1024  80       009BKN068    0.0   15.0
  15 12/05 15Z   55     51     186       4    0.00  0.00    560    580    9.4 -12.5 1023 100       007OVC024    0.0   15.0
  18 12/05 18Z   63     57     224       7    0.00  0.00    561    579    9.7 -10.7 1021 100       011OVC069    0.0   15.0
  21 12/05 21Z   64     59     193       6    0.00  0.00    561    578   10.6 -10.2 1019 100       014OVC139    0.0   15.0
  24 12/06 00Z   63     60     153       4    0.00  0.00    561    577   10.9 -11.5 1018  98       027BKN305    0.0   15.0
  27 12/06 03Z   64     61     187       9    0.00  0.00    561    577   10.8 -11.4 1018 100       029OVC358    0.0   15.0
  30 12/06 06Z   63     62     212       8    0.00  0.00    561    576   10.8 -13.1 1017 100       032OVC320    0.0   14.9
  33 12/06 09Z   62     59     287       6    0.01  0.00    559    574   10.2 -13.2 1018  98       020BKN196    0.0   15.0
  36 12/06 12Z   58     58     287       3    0.14  0.00    558    574    9.8 -13.2 1019  99 RA    087OVC221    0.0    5.6
  39 12/06 15Z   56     50     354       7    0.03  0.00    557    574    9.6 -13.3 1020 100       015OVC166    0.0   15.0
  42 12/06 18Z   56     46      19       7    0.00  0.00    556    572    9.0 -13.4 1019 100       022OVC273    0.0   15.0
  45 12/06 21Z   53     44     352       6    0.01  0.00    556    571    6.5 -14.0 1019 100       028OVC180    0.0   12.9
  48 12/07 00Z   52     38      27       5    0.00  0.00    555    572    2.9 -13.4 1020 100       057OVC112    0.0   15.0
  51 12/07 03Z   50     35       6       6    0.00  0.00    556    572    3.7 -13.7 1020 100       052OVC217    0.0   14.5
  54 12/07 06Z   44     40       6       3    0.20  0.00    554    571    2.6 -12.9 1020 100 -RA   053OVC375    0.0   12.8
  57 12/07 09Z   43     40     342       6    0.04  0.00    554    570    1.2 -11.4 1019 100       009OVC237    0.0   14.7
  60 12/07 12Z   40     39     344       7    0.11  0.00    553    570    0.5 -11.4 1020 100 RA    022OVC361    0.0    3.4
  63 12/07 15Z   39     36     353       7    0.13  0.00    553    570   -0.4 -11.2 1021 100 -RA   008OVC370    0.0   12.0
  66 12/07 18Z   36     34     353       6    0.10  0.00    552    568   -0.4 -12.3 1020 100 -RA   005OVC335    0.0    7.8
  69 12/07 21Z   36     34      14       6    0.13  0.00    552    566    0.4 -12.3 1018 100 -RA   007OVC197    0.0   14.5
  72 12/08 00Z   36     34       7       6    0.07  0.00    552    567    1.6 -12.8 1018 100       006OVC194    0.0   14.5
  75 12/08 03Z   35     34     357       5    0.06  0.00    551    567    1.8 -13.6 1019 100 -RA   006OVC329    0.0   10.5
  78 12/08 06Z   35     33     344       5    0.06  0.00    551    565    1.7 -13.1 1017 100 -RA   006OVC309    0.0   13.8
  81 12/08 09Z   35     33     350       6    0.03  0.00    549    563    0.2 -13.1 1017 100 -RA   005OVC175    0.0   15.2
  84 12/08 12Z   35     33     328       6    0.05  0.00    548    563   -2.1 -13.8 1019 100 -RA   006OVC272    0.0   14.8

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Here is the raw output from the 00z NAM for Columbia, SC. All rain through hour 84:

 Station ID: KCAE Lat:   33.94 Long:  -81.11                                                      
 NAM Model Run:  0Z  5DEC 2017 Cloud base and tops are now agl
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
   0 12/05 00Z   55     46      85       1    0.00  0.00    558    580    7.2 -14.1 1025   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
   3 12/05 03Z   55     46      72       3    0.00  0.00    559    580    8.1 -13.6 1025  71       059BKN071    0.0   15.0
   6 12/05 06Z   52     46      65       3    0.00  0.00    559    579    8.4 -13.5 1024  44       042SCT065    0.0   15.0
   9 12/05 09Z   51     46      52       2    0.00  0.00    560    579    8.6 -13.3 1023  64       027BKN334    0.0   15.0
  12 12/05 12Z   53     47     132       1    0.00  0.00    559    579    8.8 -12.7 1024  80       009BKN068    0.0   15.0
  15 12/05 15Z   55     51     186       4    0.00  0.00    560    580    9.4 -12.5 1023 100       007OVC024    0.0   15.0
  18 12/05 18Z   63     57     224       7    0.00  0.00    561    579    9.7 -10.7 1021 100       011OVC069    0.0   15.0
  21 12/05 21Z   64     59     193       6    0.00  0.00    561    578   10.6 -10.2 1019 100       014OVC139    0.0   15.0
  24 12/06 00Z   63     60     153       4    0.00  0.00    561    577   10.9 -11.5 1018  98       027BKN305    0.0   15.0
  27 12/06 03Z   64     61     187       9    0.00  0.00    561    577   10.8 -11.4 1018 100       029OVC358    0.0   15.0
  30 12/06 06Z   63     62     212       8    0.00  0.00    561    576   10.8 -13.1 1017 100       032OVC320    0.0   14.9
  33 12/06 09Z   62     59     287       6    0.01  0.00    559    574   10.2 -13.2 1018  98       020BKN196    0.0   15.0
  36 12/06 12Z   58     58     287       3    0.14  0.00    558    574    9.8 -13.2 1019  99 RA    087OVC221    0.0    5.6
  39 12/06 15Z   56     50     354       7    0.03  0.00    557    574    9.6 -13.3 1020 100       015OVC166    0.0   15.0
  42 12/06 18Z   56     46      19       7    0.00  0.00    556    572    9.0 -13.4 1019 100       022OVC273    0.0   15.0
  45 12/06 21Z   53     44     352       6    0.01  0.00    556    571    6.5 -14.0 1019 100       028OVC180    0.0   12.9
  48 12/07 00Z   52     38      27       5    0.00  0.00    555    572    2.9 -13.4 1020 100       057OVC112    0.0   15.0
  51 12/07 03Z   50     35       6       6    0.00  0.00    556    572    3.7 -13.7 1020 100       052OVC217    0.0   14.5
  54 12/07 06Z   44     40       6       3    0.20  0.00    554    571    2.6 -12.9 1020 100 -RA   053OVC375    0.0   12.8
  57 12/07 09Z   43     40     342       6    0.04  0.00    554    570    1.2 -11.4 1019 100       009OVC237    0.0   14.7
  60 12/07 12Z   40     39     344       7    0.11  0.00    553    570    0.5 -11.4 1020 100 RA    022OVC361    0.0    3.4
  63 12/07 15Z   39     36     353       7    0.13  0.00    553    570   -0.4 -11.2 1021 100 -RA   008OVC370    0.0   12.0
  66 12/07 18Z   36     34     353       6    0.10  0.00    552    568   -0.4 -12.3 1020 100 -RA   005OVC335    0.0    7.8
  69 12/07 21Z   36     34      14       6    0.13  0.00    552    566    0.4 -12.3 1018 100 -RA   007OVC197    0.0   14.5
  72 12/08 00Z   36     34       7       6    0.07  0.00    552    567    1.6 -12.8 1018 100       006OVC194    0.0   14.5
  75 12/08 03Z   35     34     357       5    0.06  0.00    551    567    1.8 -13.6 1019 100 -RA   006OVC329    0.0   10.5
  78 12/08 06Z   35     33     344       5    0.06  0.00    551    565    1.7 -13.1 1017 100 -RA   006OVC309    0.0   13.8
  81 12/08 09Z   35     33     350       6    0.03  0.00    549    563    0.2 -13.1 1017 100 -RA   005OVC175    0.0   15.2
  84 12/08 12Z   35     33     328       6    0.05  0.00    548    563   -2.1 -13.8 1019 100 -RA   006OVC272    0.0   14.8

Bruh. That's such bad luck and borderline trollish. Especially 66-84.

Cold rain that is so close to snow and yet, so far away.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

People better tamper their excitement for at last another day. This could go south on us in a not so positive way...


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Some people have not seen snow in almost 4 years. Let us enjoy this brief moment of excitement.

 

[Mitch West]

Here is the raw output from the 00z NAM for Columbia, SC. All rain through hour 84:

 Station ID: KCAE Lat:   33.94 Long:  -81.11                                                      
 NAM Model Run:  0Z  5DEC 2017 Cloud base and tops are now agl
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
   0 12/05 00Z   55     46      85       1    0.00  0.00    558    580    7.2 -14.1 1025   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
   3 12/05 03Z   55     46      72       3    0.00  0.00    559    580    8.1 -13.6 1025  71       059BKN071    0.0   15.0
   6 12/05 06Z   52     46      65       3    0.00  0.00    559    579    8.4 -13.5 1024  44       042SCT065    0.0   15.0
   9 12/05 09Z   51     46      52       2    0.00  0.00    560    579    8.6 -13.3 1023  64       027BKN334    0.0   15.0
  12 12/05 12Z   53     47     132       1    0.00  0.00    559    579    8.8 -12.7 1024  80       009BKN068    0.0   15.0
  15 12/05 15Z   55     51     186       4    0.00  0.00    560    580    9.4 -12.5 1023 100       007OVC024    0.0   15.0
  18 12/05 18Z   63     57     224       7    0.00  0.00    561    579    9.7 -10.7 1021 100       011OVC069    0.0   15.0
  21 12/05 21Z   64     59     193       6    0.00  0.00    561    578   10.6 -10.2 1019 100       014OVC139    0.0   15.0
  24 12/06 00Z   63     60     153       4    0.00  0.00    561    577   10.9 -11.5 1018  98       027BKN305    0.0   15.0
  27 12/06 03Z   64     61     187       9    0.00  0.00    561    577   10.8 -11.4 1018 100       029OVC358    0.0   15.0
  30 12/06 06Z   63     62     212       8    0.00  0.00    561    576   10.8 -13.1 1017 100       032OVC320    0.0   14.9
  33 12/06 09Z   62     59     287       6    0.01  0.00    559    574   10.2 -13.2 1018  98       020BKN196    0.0   15.0
  36 12/06 12Z   58     58     287       3    0.14  0.00    558    574    9.8 -13.2 1019  99 RA    087OVC221    0.0    5.6
  39 12/06 15Z   56     50     354       7    0.03  0.00    557    574    9.6 -13.3 1020 100       015OVC166    0.0   15.0
  42 12/06 18Z   56     46      19       7    0.00  0.00    556    572    9.0 -13.4 1019 100       022OVC273    0.0   15.0
  45 12/06 21Z   53     44     352       6    0.01  0.00    556    571    6.5 -14.0 1019 100       028OVC180    0.0   12.9
  48 12/07 00Z   52     38      27       5    0.00  0.00    555    572    2.9 -13.4 1020 100       057OVC112    0.0   15.0
  51 12/07 03Z   50     35       6       6    0.00  0.00    556    572    3.7 -13.7 1020 100       052OVC217    0.0   14.5
  54 12/07 06Z   44     40       6       3    0.20  0.00    554    571    2.6 -12.9 1020 100 -RA   053OVC375    0.0   12.8
  57 12/07 09Z   43     40     342       6    0.04  0.00    554    570    1.2 -11.4 1019 100       009OVC237    0.0   14.7
  60 12/07 12Z   40     39     344       7    0.11  0.00    553    570    0.5 -11.4 1020 100 RA    022OVC361    0.0    3.4
  63 12/07 15Z   39     36     353       7    0.13  0.00    553    570   -0.4 -11.2 1021 100 -RA   008OVC370    0.0   12.0
  66 12/07 18Z   36     34     353       6    0.10  0.00    552    568   -0.4 -12.3 1020 100 -RA   005OVC335    0.0    7.8
  69 12/07 21Z   36     34      14       6    0.13  0.00    552    566    0.4 -12.3 1018 100 -RA   007OVC197    0.0   14.5
  72 12/08 00Z   36     34       7       6    0.07  0.00    552    567    1.6 -12.8 1018 100       006OVC194    0.0   14.5
  75 12/08 03Z   35     34     357       5    0.06  0.00    551    567    1.8 -13.6 1019 100 -RA   006OVC329    0.0   10.5
  78 12/08 06Z   35     33     344       5    0.06  0.00    551    565    1.7 -13.1 1017 100 -RA   006OVC309    0.0   13.8
  81 12/08 09Z   35     33     350       6    0.03  0.00    549    563    0.2 -13.1 1017 100 -RA   005OVC175    0.0   15.2
  84 12/08 12Z   35     33     328       6    0.05  0.00    548    563   -2.1 -13.8 1019 100 -RA   006OVC272    0.0   14.8

Nothing new here. Ive lived here all my life, 26 now and have been on the border of many storms. But no storm has broke my heart more than the late february 2004 storm. Hopefully somehting works out with this storm and we can atleast see some flakes fly.

 

[bouncycorn]

00z GFS has a trend similar to the 00z NAM as of 15 hours.. Slower with more amplification in the SW Conus