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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

I've seen the NAM spit out a lot of crazy stuff in my time but this may take the cake for me that's like putting a bonfire together sitting a propane tank and then a chair on it and saying your going to the moon.....
 
I went back and looked at the loop for the 0z NAM, (now referred to as HLS herein) and noticed that despite the big swath of what appears to be snow (or at least what most of us want to be snow here in N & Central GA), the critical thickness looks like it holds back for the duration of the precip. I'm guessing that most of what would fall would be in the form of sleet or maybe ZR if there are other warm layers below 850.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
I went back and looked at the loop for the 0z NAM, (now referred to as HLS herein) and noticed that despite the big swath of what appears to be snow (or at least what most of us want to be snow here in N & Central GA), the critical thickness looks like it holds back for the duration of the precip. I'm guessing that most of what would fall would be in the form of sleet or maybe ZR if there are other warm layers below 850.
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Not cold enough at the surface. Either snow sleet or rain
 
Showmeyourtds said:
I went back and looked at the loop for the 0z NAM, (now referred to as HLS herein) and noticed that despite the big swath of what appears to be snow (or at least what most of us want to be snow here in N & Central GA), the critical thickness looks like it holds back for the duration of the precip. I'm guessing that most of what would fall would be in the form of sleet or maybe ZR if there are other warm layers below 850.
Click to expand...

Think the precip gets heavy enough it doesn't matter at times.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
I went back and looked at the loop for the 0z NAM, (now referred to as HLS herein) and noticed that despite the big swath of what appears to be snow (or at least what most of us want to be snow here in N & Central GA), the critical thickness looks like it holds back for the duration of the precip. I'm guessing that most of what would fall would be in the form of sleet or maybe ZR if there are other warm layers below 850.
Click to expand...

NorthGaWinter4 said:
Not cold enough at the surface. Either snow sleet or rain
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Look at the soundings. It's snow. Whole column is below freezing except the 2m, which is at 33-35F.
 
Looks like another heartbreaker here in the central midlands of SC. Lol. Havent been hit here since Feb of 2014, we are due...
 
Showmeyourtds said:
That makes more sense then. I didn't look at the sounding. But how does that explain the RA-IP-SN scenario that @Weatherlover92 posted? Shows a rain to snow transition. If I've learned anything, that seldom verifies here.
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It'll start as light rain but cold air will move in rapidly at lower levels, changing it over to all snow for 90% of the main event
 
Trying to keep up with this live posting lol
 
Showmeyourtds said:
That makes more sense then. I didn't look at the sounding. But how does that explain the RA-IP-SN scenario that @Weatherlover92 posted? Shows a rain to snow transition. If I've learned anything, that seldom verifies here.
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I actually remember the March 1, 2009 event starting off similar to this. It was a light/moderate rainfall, then quickly changed over to moderate sleet and within minutes changed over to moderate/heavy snow.
 
I just saved the Bufkit for KFFC. That's got to be the highlight of this winter season! This is so funny...I'm saving this run for posterity.

It ain't got a snowball's chance in verifying but it just raised 2017-18 to a passing grade no matter what!
 
bouncycorn said:
It'll start as light rain but cold air will move in rapidly at lower levels, changing it over to all snow for 90% of the main event
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That could prove messy if it verifies
Weatherlover92 said:
I actually remember the March 1, 2009 event starting off similar to this. It was a light/moderate rainfall, then quickly changed over to moderate sleet and within minutes changed over to moderate/heavy snow.
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I was finishing school up about 100 miles south down I-85 for that event. I never saw a rain drop, but we ended up with 4-6" with some thunder. Wasn't that from a ULL?
 
It’s an OUTLIER, we toss it and ride the others to glory :D:weenie:
 
Showmeyourtds said:
That could prove messy if it verifies


I was finishing school up about 100 miles south down I-85 for that event. I never saw a rain drop, but we ended up with 4-6" with some thunder. Wasn't that from a ULL?
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Yeh that was definitely a ULL. I remember it pouring for hours in Rock hill, SC in the mid to low 30s before finally changing over to heavy snow.
 
March 2009...First time experiencing thunder snow, literally white out conditions in Spartanburg, SC for about 20 mins. Got my truck stuck in a ditch...that was fun!

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carolinachaos said:
March 2009...First time experiencing thunder snow, literally white out conditions in Spartanburg, SC for about 20 mins. Got my truck stuck in a ditch...that was fun!

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haha Columbia, SC got stuck in the infamous dry slot. They had canceled school for the next day and everything and everyone woke up to sunny skies and nothing on the ground. Lol
 
If anything, 00z GFS is slower with cold air anyways.
 
Even if the GFS wasn't suppressed, it's not cold enough outside North Carolina. It's the outlier though right now.
 
Not seeing anything with 0z Goofus..

But is there some other energy trying to chase on the backside at 102? Looks like something just to the east of Memphis. Any chance that it catches up to the lower latitude energy in the GOM, or does the trough shred it up?
 
The cmc is all in on a westward system. This is a warm look
914a0792bc4600162f83c6214970939b.jpg


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The moisture is there on the 0z GFS like what the 0z NAM showed. The GFS can't depict the moisture because the GFS doesn't have a higher resolution like the NAM does. There is a moist SW flow in the upper levels, there's going to be convection in the baroclinic zone. Regardless that the moisture isn't there on the GFS, it is there. You have to look up at the upper levels closely with this particular system.
 
SD said:
The cmc is all in on a westward system. This is a warm look
914a0792bc4600162f83c6214970939b.jpg


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I guess I should say it's warmer vs 12z but not a torch plenty of snow would fall on the northwest side

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