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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

If this comes in on Thursday, I don't know how we expected the cold to already be here?
 
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SD said:
I guess I should say it's warmer vs 12z but not a torch plenty of snow would fall on the northwest side

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Yeah I should've clarified too, I said cold rain but I meant for my area, WNC looked good as well as some of the deep south.... snow to the GOM lol crazy uncle
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I should've clarified too, I said cold rain but I meant for my area, WNC looked good as well as some of the deep south.... snow to the GOM lol crazy uncle
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Looks like we will end up on the fence as always between heavy wet snow and 33 rain

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But it never fails for me. The Birmingham folks typically get the shaft north or south.
 
SD said:
Looks like we will end up on the fence as always between heavy wet snow and 33 rain

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Don't worry. It will be 35 and rain. The 33 and rain line will be back toward Burlington, with the 33 and snow line staring somewhere in the Greensboro/Winston area!
 
Rain Cold said:
Don't worry. It will be 35 and rain. The 33 and rain line will be back toward Burlington, with the 33 and snow line staring somewhere in the Greensboro/Winston area!
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You are getting aggressive with the warm nose.

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SD said:
You are getting aggressive with the warm nose.

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No warm nose. Just a warm boundary layer. My suspicion is, this will amp up more and throw more precip back into western areas that might actually be cold enough to support wet snow. I just don't see the eastern Piedmont being cool enough. I've seen this show before not pan out for us, even in the heart of winter. It's a very big long shot for the eastern half of NC, IMO.
 
Rain Cold said:
No warm nose. Just a warm boundary layer. My suspicion is, this will amp up more and throw more precip back into western areas that might actually be cold enough to support wet snow. I just don't see the eastern Piedmont being cool enough. I've seen this show before not pan out for us, even in the heart of winter. It's a very big long shot for the eastern half of NC, IMO.
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Well, climo would say that you are correct. However, we won't know until we get more model consensus.
 
I'd watch the UKMET over any of this crazy GFS, NAM & Canadian shenannigans. 12z run of the UKMET looked a lot better than it's 00z counterpart before.
 
In David Chandley's live stream, he said "No snow. Maybe a few flakes flyng in extreme north Georgia but that's it. There won't be a low in the gulf or anything, just a little clipper system squeezing out moisture"
 
bouncycorn said:
In David Chandley's live stream, he said "No snow. Maybe a few flakes flyng in extreme north Georgia but that's it. There won't be a low in the gulf or anything, just a little clipper system squeezing out moisture"
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I understand not wanting to create mass hysteria but overall the models *right now* are not showing snow just in Extreme North Georgia, it just don't understand how he can say it, but then again I'm not a meteorologist.
 
Ouch. Looking like UKMET is faster and a bit further East with the low. (what there is of it, finally pops way way off the NE coast)
 
RollTide18 said:
So GFS/UKMet vs Euro/NAM/CMC/RGEM?
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I can't see precipitation fields on the maps I have, but versus it's 12z run, it does look to be faster with it and further away. It's a crapshoot at best with the maps available though.
 
I grabbed this map of total precip (this includes the first rainy stuff),precip gets into SC/NC, but not like the 12z run.

Old (12z run):
old.png


New (00z run):

new.png
 
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