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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

If there's any good news to take from the 6z GFS, looking at 500mb maps it was slower than 0z.
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I see the nam was more realistic. Such a hard forecast this will be. However, any snow flakes at all is bonus imho
 
Best possible scenario for most in central NC is for an inch maybe at the most two, otherwise just some token flakes to a dusting for a majority. Definitely a lot of EPS members with nothing on this suite
 
deltadog03 said:
I see the nam was more realistic. Such a hard forecast this will be. However, any snow flakes at all is bonus imho
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I agree. The NAM is the warmest model on the planet and if it's showing snow then there's at least a chance of it.
 
Shawn said:
Keep in mind those maps, include sleet and it wont be 10:1 for many areas.
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We won't have to deal with sleet in this scenario, there's no notable warm nose aloft w/ a primary coastal low. Depth of the isothermal melting layer aloft deduced via precipitation rate will be the primary determinant of precipitation type of rain or snow only. The ratios will probably be about 8:1 so we should expect to cut those numbers by about 20% then you have to account for some melting of the initial snow as it tries to stick to the ground plus if the air temp is at or slightly above freezing the snow that does make it on the ground will slowly melt. Probably looking at about 35% loss of snow per liquid equivalent plus or minus 10-15%.
 
DIdnt see this posted but I thought I'd do it. The mean decreased for the 2nd run in a row. Again keep in mind you'll probably have to cut these totals back by at least a third, maybe in half...
eps_tsnow_m_raleigh_23.png
 
deltadog03 said:
As Webb posted, this is likely an rain or snow or combo thing. Maybe a little sleet, but profiles don't support that. Also, IMHO it's going to be heavily driven upon precip rates as well
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Yep, exactly. Even if the solution and track of the low pressure center does not change at all in NWP from this point forward, historically the GFS, and even to a lesser extent the Euro are both usually guilty of not pushing the precipitation shield far enough to the NW in this type of situation (& often underestimates precipitation rate), so its certainly possible those along north & west of the heaviest axis of snow on the EPS end up w/ a bit more...
 
Hell I would argue someone might do pretty good where the intersection of the best/heaviest rates and temp profiles are best.
 
NCAR has created a nice, new high resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) to replace to the SREFs and this should start to come into view within the next day or so. The Ensemble Matched mean is a nice tool which provides a better estimate of variables like snow, total precipitation, etc. by retaining amplitude that's often lost in a more stereotypical ensemble forecast while maintaining relative stability and spread
https://ensemble.ucar.edu

You can view the NCAR Ensemble soundings here which will become useful for this storm in a day or two.
https://ensemble.ucar.edu/sounding.php
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To add to what I said earlier, 6z NAM was slower than 0z, but it looked like there was more northern stream influence. I assume that's why it may have been more south/suppressed?
 
Webberweather53 said:
NCAR has created a nice, new high resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) to replace to the SREFs and this should start to come into view within the next day or so. The Ensemble Matched mean is a nice tool which provides a better estimate of variables like snow, total precipitation, etc. by retaining amplitude that's often lost in a more stereotypical ensemble forecast while maintaining relative stability and spread
https://ensemble.ucar.edu

You can view the NCAR Ensemble soundings here which will become useful for this storm in a day or two.
https://ensemble.ucar.edu/sounding.php
View attachment 1815
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That's very cool! I hated the SREF! They were terrible in marginal events like we always have in the SE. One member would have nothing and another would have 4 feet! Taking the average of that is pointless. It did seem to work better on NE events that had less variability.
 
packfan98 said:
That's very cool! I hated the SREF! They were terrible in marginal events like we always have in the SE. One member would have nothing and another would have 4 feet! Taking the average of that is pointless. It did seem to work better on NE events that had less variability.
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Exactly, the SREF is usually pretty bad, this HREF product from NCAR should be generally better...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Ist funny how the daily cycle continues on the models looking bad overnight and becoming fun later in the day. The overall trend is still good, and that's what I'm looking at.
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Looking at Trends is almost always the best way to go and not just one individual Suite of model runs. Models are a lot like news outlets you have to understand each one's bias, look at every single one, do some research and come to your own conclusions. Somewhere amongst all of that there is the truth

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Looking at Trends is almost always the best way to go and not just one individual Suite of model runs. Models are a lot like news outlets you have to understand each one's bias, look at every single one, do some research and come to your own conclusions. Somewhere amongst all of that there is the truth

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
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So well said ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
NCAR has created a nice, new high resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) to replace to the SREFs and this should start to come into view within the next day or so. The Ensemble Matched mean is a nice tool which provides a better estimate of variables like snow, total precipitation, etc. by retaining amplitude that's often lost in a more stereotypical ensemble forecast while maintaining relative stability and spread
https://ensemble.ucar.edu

You can view the NCAR Ensemble soundings here which will become useful for this storm in a day or two.
https://ensemble.ucar.edu/sounding.php
View attachment 1815
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Can we get a soundings for dummies explanation one more time, please? Seem to have misplaced my last one.
 
This Nam looks more juiced up at hr 21 compared to the 6z
 
deltadog03 said:
I noticed that. I know it mby but it almost appears the best overall chances are closer in GA.
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It's certainly rare for our neck of the woods to have the best chances of accumulating snow, so as Webber said we'll hold onto hope, but lean heavily on the side of non-verification. But, it sure is nice to see some of those darker blue shades across central Georgia! Hopefully, things will become a little more clear today. Always appreciate the analysis and play-by-play!
 
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